Q3'16 Delivery Estimates

[tander]

27,300

By simple math. Q3 started at 2,000/wk and ended at 2,200/wk with a linear rise. So, 13 weeks times an average rate of 2,100/wk gives a total of 27,300 cars. This number could be even larger due to 5,000 in transit at the end of Q2 and suggestions of a much lower number at the end of Q3. With three vacation weeks in Q4, I expect 2,300/week times 10 weeks for a total of 23,000 in Q4. Might hit 80,000 on the button for 2H.

I agree, normally it's good to be conservative as this thread trends to. But the math is painting a very different picture. We didn't hear about any production hiccups or weeks off or supplier shortages. If you figure they produced a minimum of 26k (which is lower than guidance), and reduced the in transits in order to meet very clearly pushed production goals, a number over 30k is not just hopeful. Kind of surprising to see analysts like Kallo coming out and saying that any number over 20k is good, which I guess it is since it would be their best quarter ever at 20k or 30k.

 

[EinSV]

I agree, normally it's good to be conservative as this thread trends to. But the math is painting a very different picture. We didn't hear about any production hiccups or weeks off or supplier shortages. If you figure they produced a minimum of 26k, and reduced the in transits in order to meet very clearly pushed production goals, a number over 30k is not just hopeful. Kind of surprising to see analysts like Kallo coming out and saying that any number over 20k is good, which I guess it is since it would be their best quarter ever at 20k or 30k.

I updated my estimate to what I think is a reasonable number (23,350) in @AudubonB's delivery thread but there definitely is a possibility for deliveries well above that.

Another way to look at it is that insideEV reported almost 8000 US deliveries of S/X in just July and August, with almost 5000 in August. Assuming those numbers are accurate, and just following the normal pattern of much higher deliveries in the last month of the quarter could easily get you to 16000 deliveries in the US alone. Having said that, I am sticking with my more conservative estimate for now.

 

[tander]

I updated my estimate to what I think is a reasonable number (23,350) in @AudubonB's delivery thread but there definitely is a possibility for deliveries well above that.

Another way to look at it is that insideEV reported almost 8000 US deliveries of S/X in just July and August, with almost 5000 in August. Just following the normal pattern of much higher deliveries in the last month of the quarter could easily get you to 16000 deliveries in the US alone. Having said that, I am sticking with my more conservative estimate for now.

Nothing wrong with being conservative especially when tsla is so volatile, but I think/hope many will be pleasantly surprised. It seems like there is a big gap between expectations and guidance.

 

[Ameliorate]

Nothing wrong with being conservative especially when tsla is so volatile, but I think/hope many will be pleasantly surprised. It seems like there is a big gap between expectations and guidance.

I'm glad expectations aren't through the roof this time! If Tesla did produce roughly 26,000 cars this quarter, delivered 5000 carried over from last quarter and sold somewhere around 1000 demo/loaner vehicles, that leaves tesla with 32,000 cars to deliver this quarter, i'd be baffled if deliveries were under 25,000. or if in transit was over 6,000. My guess just under 27,000 Goodluck!

 

[uselesslogin]

I voted in the higher range and I now say >30,000 for 2 reasons. 1) I am always optimistic and a broken clock is right twice a day and 2) Who in a million years ever saw 6,900 coming for Q4 2013, so a crazy beat like that is possible.

 

[nagdingbrob]

Tesla (TSLA) delivers a record-breaking 24,500 vehicles during the last quarter, and 5,500 more in transit

24,500!

 

[TMSE]

Wow! The average of our estimate is very close to actual numbers!

 

[MikeC]

Wow! The average of our estimate is very close to actual numbers!

TMC is usually optimistic, so when we're actually right it means it was a huge quarter.

 

[Turing]

Considering they had 5.5k in transit at end of Q3, it wasn't far fetched to assume 27k was possible had that transit carry over improved rather than stayed the same/increased. My estimate was 27k optimistic with a 23k floor and went with basically the average of that as my estimate.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Pat on the back to TMC for predicting a great quarter! Tander owes us a shaved head!

 

[Hogfighter]

24,898

I'd love to be spot-on when the final numbers come out!

 

[jbcarioca]

Wow! The average of our estimate is very close to actual numbers!

We must be better informed than we think we are, collectively anyway.

 

[Hogfighter]

24,898

Off by a little!

 

[Cal1]

Did Tesla or the analysts predict annual deliveries? Seems like I've seen 50k referenced but can't figure out where it would apply. Surly no one expected 50k in one month and it's way too low for an annual figure. Just adding up the posted quarters, 100k this year is almost a sure thing.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Did Tesla or the analysts predict annual deliveries? Seems like I've seen 50k referenced but can't figure out where it would apply. Surly no one expected 50k in one month and it's way too low for an annual figure. Just adding up the posted quarters, 100k this year is almost a sure thing.

Erm, the 50k is for second half of 2016. They guided to 25k in Q4 so just under 80k for the year