Q3'16 Delivery Estimates

[Clprenz]

I'm modeling for 27,500 ev-cpo shows Inventory sales of 1300-400 for the quarter now... which is epic- was 900 yesterday. Really awesome deals- exciting quarter for Tesla

Details of my expectations: Tesla Q3 Expectations

 

[esk8mw]

I'm modeling for 27,500 ev-cpo shows Inventory sales of 1300-400 for the quarter now... which is epic- was 900 yesterday. Really awesome deals- exciting quarter for Tesla

Details of my expectations: Tesla Q3 Expectations

Is that even accurate though? How does it account for the cars that never hit the website (like the P90D I bought)? The number might even be low.

 

[cluster]

The google spreadsheets data show very rare 133XXX 134XXX 135XXX VINs reported. Those reported were all delivered outside of the US.
Some other points:
1. These cars were probably produced in April.
2. There are many sold/relisted inventory cars 133XXX-135XXX on ev-cpo. They located in the US. But not sure when they were sold. IF they were sold in Q3, we can probably add additional 2000 MS deliveries.
3. Some 134XXX were facelift. But 133XXX, 135XXX were not.

 

[bonaire]

Cluster, you can add to your research by paying $4 (for one month) and get the entire history of vehicles removed from ev-cpo.com as either "sold" or just "removed from web". It can help your research. Removal of 400 from the web (and pulling from ev-cpo.com) yesterday does not mean all were sold - as most were put up only yesterday and then taken down. Only 9/1/16 has a similar group removal. Perhaps they didn't intend to make them all visible. Some P90DL were not listed on the web - I saw three at the showroom near my location and never saw their Vins on ev-cpo.com

 

[cluster]

Cluster, you can add to your research by paying $4 (for one month) and get the entire history of vehicles removed from ev-cpo.com as either "sold" or just "removed from web". It can help your research. Removal of 400 from the web (and pulling from ev-cpo.com) yesterday does not mean all were sold - as most were put up only yesterday and then taken down. Only 9/1/16 has a similar group removal. Perhaps they didn't intend to make them all visible. Some P90DL were not listed on the web - I saw three at the showroom near my location and never saw their Vins on ev-cpo.com

I have an ev-cpo.com account. But I am not sure I understand their data.
For example, does "This page last updated at: 2016-07-15 08:54:02 due to: --- ~~~~~~~~~" mean sold on 7-15? Sometimes, "--- ~~~~~~~~~Cached page is not available."

As you have indicated, it seems impossible to know if a car was sold or just removed from web.

 

[NannerAirCraft]

I'm gonna move my estimate up a bit from 22,600 to 23,100.

 

[PaulRocket]

My estimate is 25,563 cars delivered.
Automotive revenue: $2,3B
Automotive profit: $49,15M

 

[Drax7]

My estimate is 25,563 cars delivered.
Automotive revenue: $2,3B
Automotive profit: $49,15M

We are on the same page.

$ 49,150,351.23 is my precise calculation rounded off to the nearest cent.

 

[austinEV]

I have an ev-cpo.com account. But I am not sure I understand their data.
For example, does "This page last updated at: 2016-07-15 08:54:02 due to: --- ~~~~~~~~~" mean sold on 7-15? Sometimes, "--- ~~~~~~~~~Cached page is not available."

As you have indicated, it seems impossible to know if a car was sold or just removed from web.

You can ask @HankLloydRight who runs that site.

 

[HankLloydRight]

I have an ev-cpo.com account. But I am not sure I understand their data.
For example, does "This page last updated at: 2016-07-15 08:54:02 due to: --- ~~~~~~~~~" mean sold on 7-15? Sometimes, "--- ~~~~~~~~~Cached page is not available."

As you have indicated, it seems impossible to know if a car was sold or just removed from web.

I'll send you a PM with details.

You can ask @HankLloydRight who runs that site.

Thanks for the @ link, I wouldn't have seen this otherwise.

 

[Drax7]

Ive been shopping the new model S inventory, and the deals are substantial. Cars get sold very very quickly.
A discounted p90d model S last a couple of day at most.
I noticed the total new model S inventory drop from about 150 to 30 in about 5 days.
I would be surprised to see deliveries below 24,000 cars this quarter.

My breakeven calculation, using last years income statement and level
of expenses, is about 1800 cars per week at an average price of $90,000.
If that holds, we should surpass breakeven gaap this quarter.

 

[NigelM]

I'm maxing out around 21k, although my range is 19-21k. I know that puts me in the minority and I'd like to be wrong but I'm not convinced that the apparent last-minute uptick is going to change things enough. On a global level 21k is still 20% above the previous quarterly high (4Q15) and I'm not sure that there's been enough increase in delivery capacity to cope with more than that even if production capacity is higher.

 

[Turing]

Interesting going back over 2015 q4 estimate thread the last time tesla was pushing hard for a really good quarter the resident bears(bonaire, shonelucht .et al) were all off by 3-4k in estimates. Will we get a repeat?
2015 Q4 discussion thread for delivery numbers

 

[AudubonB]

I don't mean to dismiss or diminish this thread, but as it goes the way of all "open" threads, it's become too difficult to see at a glance best estimates. So I've opened a short-lived thread, dedicated to amassing peoples' sales/deliveries numbers for 3Q. It will be here in the Investors' sector; I don't like to contribute to the proliferation of threads, though, so we'll close it down soon after TM's announcement next week. PEASE KEEP COMMENTARY DOWN TO, Well, NOTHING! Special dispensation for whoever comes closest - maybe I'll cut that person some slack regarding Off-Topic or Off-Color postings....

 

[tander]

I'm revising my conservative estimate to about 29k+ including CPOs. If they really locked down the in transits, 30k+.

 

[TMSE]

I'm revising my conservative estimate to about 29k+ including CPOs. If they really locked down the in transits, 30k+.

CPO sales are not included in the delivery numbers published by Tesla.

 

[Hogfighter]

24,898

 

[winfield100]

im going for the 23,000 - 26,000 mostly based on weekly / 2x a week drive bys of the Rockville, Maryland, USA service center and for the last ~6 weeks seeing and counting 50-72 teslas there (really like the blue) with anywhere from 1/2 of them to more being shrink wrapped or having the covers with logo's on them and more on the roads in the Washington DC, USA region and interstates

 

[ZsoZso]

My guesstimate: 22,222 nice number isn't it ?

 

[doctoxics]

27,300

By simple math. Q3 started at 2,000/wk and ended at 2,200/wk with a linear rise. So, 13 weeks times an average rate of 2,100/wk gives a total of 27,300 cars. This number could be even larger due to 5,000 in transit at the end of Q2 and suggestions of a much lower number at the end of Q3. With three vacation weeks in Q4, I expect 2,300/week times 10 weeks for a total of 23,000 in Q4. Might hit 80,000 on the button for 2H.