Q4 2015 Delivery Prediction Competition

[stealthology]

That's legitimate rationale. This quarter we have a special situation with X. Apparently a range was given to account for variability of X deliveries. Here is a relevant note by Deutsche Bank issued on Dec 8th.

"The Model X is finally in series production. We saw half a dozen production Model X’s (customer vehicles) during a quick pass through the company’s final assembly area," Lache explained. "However, we suspect that Tesla may only achieve the lower half of its 15,000-17,000 unit production target for 4Q15. The bounds of this production forecast were driven by low and high forecasts for Model X production, with the low end including almost no Model X’s. During Tesla’s Q3 conference call, Tesla management suggested that achieving the high end of the range (15,000 Model S’s and 2,000 Model X’s) was predicated on ramping up to several hundred Model X’s per week by mid-November. Had Tesla achieved this target, we would have expected Model X to account for 1 of every 4 vehicles on the company’s final assembly line. At the time of our visit, we very roughly estimated that Model X accounted for roughly 1 of every 15 vehicles in final assembly."

Here is the source link.

So far it looks like X deliveries have been well below mid-point expectation. So maybe Tesla will barely make 15K deliveries, unless S deliveries were push even harder, which I believe is hard to evaluate.

I have no clue to the final answer, So I didn't answer the poll.

Based on my observations and reading around, it does seem like Tesla was pushing S deliveries harder-- if I recall, they had some specials going on.

Regarding the Deutsche Bank note you quoted above: I've listened to the Q3 call a number of times and I do not recall Tesla ever suggesting that they would produce 2,000 X's. Elon simply said he feels very confident in producing several hundred X's/week sometime next month (Dec). Right now, it doesn't look like that can happen, but I don't believe they planned on delivering more than several hundred or so anyway at the time of the Q3 call.

So it appears to be clear that some issue(s) came up with the X very recently (ie. missing bolt like on Bonnie's car), or dare I say.. there is a real door issue, however small it may be, and Elon knew about it during the Q3 call yet still wanted to get these few hundred out there for this year. I really hope ptsagcy's report had some false info. regarding the line being potentially shut down after all Sigs are delivered for tooling updates.

Maybe I'm just a little paranoid.

 

[jesselivenomore]

So far it looks like X deliveries have been well below mid-point expectation. So maybe Tesla will barely make 15K deliveries, unless S deliveries were push even harder, which I believe is hard to evaluate.

I have no clue to the final answer, So I didn't answer the poll.

Deliveries != production. In fact they guided for 2000 more deliveries than production. So even with no Model X deliveries(which we know isn't the case), 15,000 in production should be achieved. This would come out to 17,000 in deliveries, not barely 15,000.

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Elon simply said he feels very confident in producing several hundred X's/week sometime next month (Dec). Right now, it doesn't look like that can happen,

??

It's looks like what Elon said is exactly what is happening.

Leak: “every other car off the line is the X”

 

[SBenson]

Deliveries != production. In fact they guided for 2000 more deliveries than production. So even with no Model X deliveries(which we know isn't the case), 15,000 in production should be achieved. This would come out to 17,000 in deliveries, not barely 15,000.

I mis-spoke, I did mean to say barely 17K deliveries.

 

[Ryo]

18001

 

[Cattledog]

What does the winning guess get?

 

[stealthology]

I know Tesla was running some deals on inventory cars and leases in December. They were actually pretty tempting offers.

 

[pz1975]

What does the winning guess get?

A free Model X.

 

[Crowded Mind]

What does the winning guess get?

Infinite glory and minimal +rep.

 

[Cattledog]

Infinite glory and minimal +rep.

That's enough for me! If we hit my number (19,370, longshot, although calculated with infinite precision) I'll be happy other other ways!

 

[NannerAirCraft]

17831

 

[hobbes]

Trip Chowdry gave an estimate, too:

In 4Q,2015, Tesla has likely delivered more than 18,300 Auto Units, towards the higher end of the guidance.

Tesla Motors: Can It Deliver? - Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com

Question remains as always: Does he know something we don´t or is his educated guess just as good as ours? Can´t wait for Monday...

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Looks like he was hanging out at the factory counting delivery trucks :biggrin: :
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Tesla+%28TSLA%29+Q4+Deliveries+Likely+at+Higher+End+of+Guidance+-+Chowdhry/11179861.html?si_client=st

 

[Vger]

For what it is worth (not much), I picked exactly the same number as Mr. Chowdry– 18,300!

 

[stealthology]

Looks like he was hanging out at the factory counting delivery trucks :biggrin: :
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Tesla+%28TSLA%29+Q4+Deliveries+Likely+at+Higher+End+of+Guidance+-+Chowdhry/11179861.html?si_client=st

Lol, I could totally picture trip doing this.

 

[dc_h]

Will be interesting to see if our collective wisdom is predictive. Eliminating the under 16000 and over 20000 estimates, the average estimate is 17909. I removed the under 16000 and over 20000 as outliers and used the mean of each estimate for the collective average. Interesting that our estimate is close to Trip's estimate using a separate methodologies.

 

[tom66]

Given Model X ramp seems slower than expected, I am guessing Tesla will very slightly miss their target.

16905 cars delivered

 

[Drax7]

I don't know , though I could pretend that I know.

17,803 seems accurate .

 

[doctoxics]

17,490 for Q4

 

[Quant]

Lol, I could totally picture trip doing this.

Yeah, with a shot straight up, after he counted every 100 Tesla's. Tripping !

Actually , that's not a lot for Trip ! Lol

 

[hobbes]

Will be interesting to see if our collective wisdom is predictive. Eliminating the under 16000 and over 20000 estimates, the average estimate is 17909. I removed the under 16000 and over 20000 as outliers and used the mean of each estimate for the collective average. Interesting that our estimate is close to Trip's estimate using a separate methodologies.

Cool! One quarter average estimate matched the actual number quite exactly, wonder if we can repeat that!

 

[SebastianR]

Cool! One quarter average estimate matched the actual number quite exactly, wonder if we can repeat that!

Now watch the professional analysts lurk in the forum, take that number as baseline for what is expected and have a meeting of guidance (i.e. 17k) dismissed by the same "professionals" as "disappointment since it fell 1k short of the expectations..." - or so...