Refreshed Tesla Model S Demand Appears To Be High & Increasing

[TMC Staff]

Tesla CEO Elon Musk already mentioned this when the Fremont factory reopened after a very brief pause.



Updated delivery timelines suggest that demand for the refreshed Tesla Model S Long Range and Plaid models is growing. Previously, Tesla was estimating that new orders would be delivered in four to eleven weeks. Now, the website is showing 10 to 14 weeks. Refreshed Model X delivery timelines remain unchanged at this time.



Musk recently wrote in an email to employees:



“Model S/X production lines are almost done with the retooling and will be aiming for max production next quarter. There is high demand, so we are soon going to need to go back to two shifts. Please recommend friends for recruiting.”



We’ve embedded Sawyer Merritt’s related tweet below, and we’ve verified the dates are correct...

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[Rootcanals]

California orders still say est 4-11 weeks

 

[whitex]

If they keep delaying the production, it seems logical the backlog will grow and delivery times will grow with it. It doesn't necessarily mean the demand is growing, only that the backlog of orders is growing. Same will happen if they limit production. The proof will be in the number of Model S sold as compared to prior years.

 

[DBV1]

Agree - so hard to tell, when they can’t even deliver yet. Only going to be a backlog until they start deliveries. Still a pricey car compared to a Model 3, so not going to blow it away. At least that is my opinion.

 

[Str8down]

Also, those delivery estimates have nothing to do with those of us with current orders. If anything, 4-11 weeks is great news, because that if you order today. There has to be a TON of pre-refresh and announcement day orders in that have to get done prior to one ordered today. So if they can get one ordered today to you in 4 weeks, I can only assume all the earlier orders will be here any day.

 

[jsight]

Well, with no deliveries happening, the only way to go is up.

 

[Tigers]

They have said in the past there is an ability to make 2,000 S/X vehicles a week. No Model Xs are being delivered until the first group of Model S's have been handed out. Therefore, doing the math, assuming they start full production in the next handful of business days, they should theoretically get 4000 - 6000 Model S's off of the line. That should knock a good chunk of the backlog out.

Couple of big IFs:

- Starting full production soon
- Full production is as much, if not more than before

 

[jsight]

They have said in the past there is an ability to make 2,000 S/X vehicles a week. No Model Xs are being delivered until the first group of Model S's have been handed out. Therefore, doing the math, assuming they start full production in the next handful of business days, they should theoretically get 4000 - 6000 Model S's off of the line. That should knock a good chunk of the backlog out.

Couple of big IFs:

- Starting full production soon
- Full production is as much, if not more than before

I think the high point was ~120k S/X in a single year? If so, that 2k/week figure is pretty close to their capacity.

I agree that its really hard to tell whether they are anywhere near full capacity with the new cars though. They may not be planning to get near it until some time in Q2.

 

[Tigers]

I think the high point was ~120k S/X in a single year? If so, that 2k/week figure is pretty close to their capacity.

I agree that its really hard to tell whether they are anywhere near full capacity with the new cars though. They may not be planning to get near it until some time in Q2.

Well, I do think it's helpful they are pushing back Model X orders (I assume for simplification purposes), but yeah...that could also mean they don't have a ton of confidence/enough training done yet to get it going full steam, which means way less than 4-6k even with the S alone.

 

[omarsultan]

I think the high point was ~120k S/X in a single year? If so, that 2k/week figure is pretty close to their capacity.

In the Q4 update, they pegged capacity at 100K/yr or about 2K/wk when you back out holidays, etc. I would imagine it is maybe half that or lower if they are still ramping production
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[RobK]

Placed an order for Model S (LR) on 3/10 from Overland Park, KS. it still shows delivery date of 10-14 weeks from the order date.

 

[Atomadam]

Placed mine in Dec, was told a number of weeks ago it would be about 5 weeks for delivery. I guess im about 1-3 weeks away from getting it.

 

[JeffR]

Placed an order for Model S (LR) on 3/12 from San Diego, CA. The order continues to show a delivery date estimate of 4-11 weeks from the order placed date. Tesla rep suggested a June delivery might be realistic.

 

[TsRocket]

Surprise me! First Ordered ReFresh december 2020. No known estimate. no VIN. nothing. Sucks!

 

[calm-one]

Two items from this CNN article dated April 2, 2021 are disheartening: 1) the title of "Tesla temporarily halts production of its Model S and Model X" and 2) a quote attributed to Dan Ives, tech analyst with Wedbush Securities of "The S and X are on a slow sunset path," with "The demand for those models has been exhausted.".

Ok, the parts shortage is affecting a lot of electronic products, from Electrolux Dryers to Sony Playstation 5s to Tesla vehicles, et cetera. But "slow sunset path"? Plaid+ anybody?

ref: Tesla temporarily halts production of its Model S and Model X

Thoughts?

 

[Lmacdavis93]

Placed an order for Model S (LR) on 3/10 from Overland Park, KS. it still shows delivery date of 10-14 weeks from the order date.

I ordered a long range Model S in early February and was promised delivery in March. It's now April 2nd and no word. And no one at the dealership seems to know anything more than what I can find online. It seems strange to me that they can't tell you where you vehicle is in the production process.

 

[Tigers]

I ordered a long range Model S in early February and was promised delivery in March. It's now April 2nd and no word. And no one at the dealership seems to know anything more than what I can find online. It seems strange to me that they can't tell you where you vehicle is in the production process.

Can't or won't?

 

[doubleshot]

I ordered a long range Model S in early February and was promised delivery in March. It's now April 2nd and no word. And no one at the dealership seems to know anything more than what I can find online. It seems strange to me that they can't tell you where you vehicle is in the production process.

Where it is is nowhere. They can't tell you because they haven't pulled even one production finished MS off the line. Q1 official numbers show zero produced. Mules and test cars are not production cars so don't count. The fly overs we saw some built. Those now are officially non production and used for testing. They can't tell you where your car is in the process because it's still at just purchased phase.

 

[lbowroom]

Promised?

 

[cytranic]

Mine is being delivered in March!!!! I cant wait.......wait a min..