(Reported on 12/26/2015) 11+ car wait at Tejon Ranch!

[MichFin]

I think you guys are really over thinking this. I've never been to a supercharger location that was full and maybe it's different out west but a simple how many open stalls is all you need because it's likely a decision you're going to make at the moment you approach the exit.... Do I stop or go to the next one?

 

[thecloud]

I think you guys are really over thinking this. I've never been to a supercharger location that was full and maybe it's different out west but a simple how many open stalls is all you need because it's likely a decision you're going to make at the moment you approach the exit.... Do I stop or go to the next one?

The reality of taking road trips in a state where lots of Tesla owners live is that we currently do encounter lines at critical supercharger locations.

As the infrastructure catches up, then we'll be able to think about casually skipping a supercharger and stopping at the next one. Right now, the SCs are spaced just far enough apart on the north-south route to make the trip possible. If you can't make it to the next supercharger, you are stuck: either stuck waiting 4+ hours for a 30 amp charge if you're lucky, or stuck on the side of the road waiting to be towed if you're not.

So we wait patiently in line, because there's really no alternative once you get there. This is why you need to plan your stops before setting out on a long trip, and think about the timing of the trip (e.g. if it's Sunday afternoon, there will likely be a wait for a charging spot.) Even if you could see a display on your console that the stalls are all full, you'd need a nearby supercharger within your remaining range in order to skip it. And that nearby supercharger might also be full once you reach it.

The best we can do right now is figure out when the off-peak times might be, to spread out the utilization of the existing SCs. Being able to see weekly supercharger utilization data in graph form would help with that, and it's a feature I wish Tesla offered. I try to plan my L.A. trips early in the morning when I can, but it isn't always possible to pick supercharger-friendly travel times when you have work/family commitments or other constraints.

 

[Saghost]

Okay, OT but I am getting a giggle envisioning the graphic icons Tesla could use to indicate the varying states of charge. A la Waze, they could be skinny, hungry Teslas slurping on the SuperStraw... Fat, burping Teslas with bulging headlight eyes.

Still giggling...

Okay, I'm amused. Tesla could certainly have fun with that one.

 

[ohmman]

That sounds like a very complicated model to try to guess all of those factors, and very error prone.

It will most certainly have some errors, but I bet you'd be surprised how powerful it would be. I think you're assuming it would be human programmed. In this case, there's enough data to learn a model without human intervention. We've passed the point where most machine learning models are surpassing any hand-written algorithms, and some of them beat humans directly as well. The benefit is that, while it's even more accurate and generalizable, it's also quite easy to build compared to writing code. In the scheme of what we're doing with machine learning today, this is a pretty straightforward problem to try to solve.

I think you guys are really over thinking this. I've never been to a supercharger location that was full and maybe it's different out west but a simple how many open stalls is all you need because it's likely a decision you're going to make at the moment you approach the exit.... Do I stop or go to the next one?

I think that's one decision you might make, but the way I road trip, I don't have that option. When I arrive, I need to charge. That's why it would be more informative to me to have a predictive model which will give me an indication of how congested my next supercharger might be. That may change my charging goal at my existing Supercharger such that I can skip the congested one.

Edited to add: Pull up Google Maps and map a route. Then, tell it what time of day you'd like to take this route. Their model, based on all of the traffic information they've pulled and what it knows, will give you an estimate based on that time of day. This is similar to what I'm suggesting above.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Okay, I'm amused. Tesla could certainly have fun with that one.

What would locals without a Filed Trip Plan look like in the depiction?

(I know, I know, there are No Locals At Tejon On Holidays...)

 

[smac]

I know nothing about the Badgers Farm site. However, there is one other obvious candidate - a 400 kWh battery pallet. Tesla has been slowly rolling them out to Supercharger locations, starting with areas that have large demand charges or large time of use swings - the battery pack lets them level the very peaky load.

Senior Tesla folks like Straubel have made presentations about the packs and there usage a few times in the last few years - it's apparently pretty much the guts of five 85 kWh battery packs arranged a little differently and places on a 4' x 6' pallet.
Walter

Would be nice, and maybe it is but I doubt it. It was one of the first SpC's to go into the UK, and is only 2 bays.

First time I ever used an SpC it was there, not as bad as 11 car queue, but I got stuck behind 2 cars. Second time was on my return home, and again I got stuck waiting.

Speaking to one of the owners as he returned to his car, he lived locally and was doing his weekly 100% charge whilst in the adjacent Supermarket

Then the SpC stopped working, and I was on the phone to Tech Support, then it topped out charging at 90 miles per hour. All in I wasted 1h30, and had to stop again for 30 minutes at one further up the road.

Of course Murphy's law was in play, and I had three friends with me who are in the position to buy Tesla's, but were skeptical of the feasibility of replacing their ICEs. So this one incident has probably cost Tesla 3 potential sales (and me 3 referral vouchers ).

To rub salt in the wounds the second charger was powered by the hulking great generator, so on top of the teasing for the delays, they all started making jokes about how we had used more diesel than if we'd taken one of their E Classes...

My Tesla really hasn't been a lucky car... so much so I'm thinking of renaming it Eleanor.

 

[vitaliy]

Buttonwillow, CA supercharger was opened today. 10 stalls. Enjoy

 

[Haggy]

Buttonwillow, CA supercharger was opened today. 10 stalls. Enjoy

With Buttonwillow and Burbank now open, it's possible to do exactly what others have suggested and skip busy locations. It's now possible to go from Fremont or Mountain View to SoCal with a single stop in Buttonwillow, and pass three chargers on the way without stopping. That makes it possible to do a drive by just in case. It's not just a matter of waiting in line, but when at least half the spaces are taken, it comes down to a guessing game as to who might leave. If the trip planner tells you that you'll need a 15 minute stop, half the spaces are taken, and you end up next to somebody who had just gotten there and needed a full charge, you might be checking your app for 45 minutes to see if you should head back to your car yet.

The whole A|B thing works well in theory, and if you are hanging around and could move your car if a better spot opened up, it might be even better. If there are 10 spots, half are full, and the average person charges for half an hour, then after about six minutes you might see somebody leave who isn't sharing with anybody. Then you'd have to move before somebody else did.

Tesla still markets based on the best case scenario but in real life there are other factors that determine how long a charge will take. The last time I was at TR, I was the second out of three in line. I waited about 15 minutes. Moments after I pulled in, the car next to me left and the next guy in line pulled in. That made me lucky, but he was adding about 80 miles of range per hour and didn't understand the whole A|B thing. Fortunately for him I didn't need to be there for a long time. But most of the other cars that were charging when I got there were still charging when I left.

 

[Nifty-Stuff]

There should not be only 1 solution. The best approach is to implement most of the solutions. Make it a multi-modal solution!

A) Start with the easiest and cheapest one like the simple app showing how many stalls are occupied and for how long. Notify users when they are almost finish and finished charging. Also let them know how many stalls are occupied so if they see some occupied, they would be more inclined to move their car. This is only software and no need to change any hardware.

B) Using data analysis and such, plan the SC expansion properly to account for peak demand and alternatives. For instance San Juan Capistrano is always in high demand. But why? is it from local users or long distance traveler like at Tejon pass? Priority should be made to expand Tejon pass instead of San Juan because people at San Juan have plenty of alternatives, ChadeMo, L2, HPWC, etc, while Tejon have no alternatives. So do strategic expansion and take into account ALL variables, not just which ones are congested the most.

C) consider portable SC units. Tesla has them and "run" them when needed to help alleviate the problem.

D) Research faster charging or at least faster sustained charging to get people out faster.

E) Incentives users to travel outside the peak demand period whatever that maybe. Or the opposite, penalize users. I think the time penalty/incentive is enough, but maybe let people know of potential peak demand (predictive so they can choose to drive slower or faster or take alternatives)

And there might be more that others can recommend. But my point is Tesla should do them all. Some of them are already happening, but I am not sure if they are prioritizing them correctly.

I know, old thread... but wow, a lot of this was implemented exactly as described!

 

[No2DinosaurFuel]

I know, old thread... but wow, a lot of this was implemented exactly as described!

Yes, but to be honest, most are pretty obvious. Glad I predicted the future right. : )