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Residuals went down

Discussion in 'Model S: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by typhune, Mar 19, 2016.

  1. typhune

    typhune Member

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    For what it's worth, residuals have gone down, which would then raise monthly lease payments.

    15k miles
    70/70D are .52
    90D/P90D is .51

    used to be around .54/.55

    12k Miles, add .01
    10k miles, add .02

    It's fairly significant on the monthly. about $100/mo.
     
  2. KJD

    KJD Member

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    How does that compare to other luxury cars in the same price range?
     
  3. ddawn

    ddawn Member

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    Great Falls, Virginia
    Hi-

    The residual values noted above look very low.

    This is the lease i just closed on yesterday with US bank, which was facilitated by Tesla. As you can see the residual value for a 70D, 15K miles, on a three year lease was 63.29% (57,248/90,450.) For comparison to other manufacturers, the Residual value percentages are always based upon MSRP. The 63.29% is among the best i have seen for a luxury vehicle.


    [​IMG]
     
  4. rog

    rog Member

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    Lease special is running out (was available for cars delivered by 3/31). Lease special had lower rates by increasing residual - which I would guess explains why residuals are now getting back to normal, since cars ordered now won't make the 3/31 cut off date.
     
  5. ddawn

    ddawn Member

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    This is the lease document that didn't upload properly above-which i closed yesterday.

    The tesla owner advisor did say that they were running a lease deal for deliveries in Q1. However, based on current information on the teslamotors website the residuals have to be substantially in excess of these noted above.

    Analysis-
    For comparison, I just got off the teslamotors web site and configured a vehicle exactly the same as the one below for April delivery. It is showing a 3 ys, 15k lease, $5k cap cost reduction for $1097 per month vs a $1026 amount shown below-a $71 (6.92%) difference per month or $2,556 over the lease term.

    A 52% residual would result in a residual value of $47, 034 vs the $57,248 in the lease below- a difference of $10, 214.

    If the current residual value was in fact 52%, the lease payments over the three years would have to increase by $10,214 plus the IRR on the incremental $10, 214. This amount is substantially in excess of the 3 year lease payment differential of $2,556 noted above.

    Conclusion

    Although the current lease offer is not a good as the one in place for Q1 2016, the residual values have to be substantially in excess the 52% noted above. My estimation is that the residual value would be in the range of 61% (57,248-(.88 X 2556)=54,999/90450=60.7%)


    tesla lease.jpg
     
  6. tstafford

    tstafford Member

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    FWIW - I just went back and looked at mine from US Bank (via Tesla) from August and it was 59.4%.

    I'm interested in these numbers because I continue to mull the possibility of just buying my car at the end of the lease. But if Tesla is going to reduce the residual for cars being leased now and in the future then it's unlikely it will make any sense for me to buy mine.
     
  7. typhune

    typhune Member

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    As I've been watching, I hear that people have been surprised both positively and negatively when they go to sign the deal. The website promotes what I would hope is somewhat of an accurate estimate, but it does depend on when the deal is signed, for sure. Since each one is ordered and delivered 1-2mos later, things definitely do change.

    That said, none of what I shared is "secret" information. If you know where to look (Tesla Leasing) it's all there. Just view the source code for the page.

    var models = {
    '70kWh': {
    'base':70000,
    'alg_residual':0.52,
    },
    '70D': {
    'base':75000,
    'alg_residual':0.52,
    },
    '90D': {
    'base':88000,
    'alg_residual':0.51,
    },
    'P90D': {
    'base':108000,
    'alg_residual':0.51,
    },
    'X70D': {
    'base':80000,
    'alg_residual':0.50,
    },
    'X90D': {
    'base':95500,
    'alg_residual':0.50,
    },
    'XP90D': {
    'base':115500,
    'alg_residual':0.50,
    }
    };

    var mileages = {
    '10000':0.02,
    '12000':0.01,
    '15000':0.0,
    };

    var constants = {
    'lease_term': 36,
    'money_factor':0.0017,
    'interest_rate':4.08,
    'federal_incentive':7500,
    'acquisition_fee':695,
    'deposit':2500,
    'min_down':0,
    'min_due':2500,
    'max_price':100000
    };



    Model x isn't great, though as some have suggested, there may be some game playing by Tesla with the residuals to artificially ebb and flow demand so they can manage the throughput without appearing to have delays. Imagine if you had a .6 or .65 residual on a model x, everyone under the sun would want one more than they do today.

    Also for reference, some other comparative numbers:
    '16 750i Xdrive is .00132 MF, 52% residual for 36/mo 15k miles
    '16 MB C300 .00152 MF, 62% resid for 36/mo 12k/yr
    '16 MB S550 63% for 24/mo, 12k/yr
    '16 MB S550 53% for 36/mo, 12k/yr or 54% for 10k/yr
    '16 Audi S7 .00067MF, 50% resid for 36mo, 15k/yr
     
  8. typhune

    typhune Member

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    Also, one other quick note, per ddawn, for those with the Q1 delivery, the residuals listed on the lease site were much higher then. for a 70D it was .56, .57, .58 (15k, 12k, 10k mi)
     
  9. David_Cary

    David_Cary Member

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    Without checking calcs or anything, what strikes me as obvious is the difference in your 2 calculated numbers is suspiciously close to $7500. So it sounds like the $7500 is being used (finally!) to help the lease payment. Residual is .52 but looks more like .60 from the TC being applied
     
  10. Blueeyedme

    Blueeyedme Member

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    That is exactly correct. I am going through this now with an S70 in stock for delivery before the 31st. Switched from purchase to a lease as technology is changing too rapidly - would you want a 2013 S right now?? In any event, the right thing for TM to do would be to apply the $7500 to cap reduction and leave the residuals alone. Artificially increasing the residuals means you would be crazy to buy the car at the end of the term....it's a penalty at that point.
     
  11. BEEZR

    BEEZR Member

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    I received a quote today for a new S70, adjusted selling price of $77,150 after $1200 showroom discount, with a residual of $51,376 after a 3yr/36k lease. That's 66%... I'm told their March promotion ends Monday.
     
  12. Blueeyedme

    Blueeyedme Member

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    Same as I received for cars delivered by 3/31. We took one from inventory that meets this timeline to get the promo. Will plan to turn it in after 36 mos.
     
  13. Snerruc

    Snerruc Member

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    Other things to consider: There aren't any six year old MS, so you are blue skying when you guess a value. A lease takes this out of the picture. If you are like me and can't use the $7500 credit on your taxes, you get some value out of it on a lease. Also, Teslas have a poor reliability rating. If you are unlucky and get one that goes through 6 du in 30,000 mi. , you might not be unhappy to have it gone in 3 years.( check du's on other threads.). My service agent (BMW) says he wouldn't want to own any of the $100,000 cars at 8 years because of service issues.
     
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  14. zambono

    zambono Member

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    TMS are a lot more reliable now, never buy a car on its first year and in reality you should probably wait for the first refresh so at least 2 years in.
     
  15. tennis

    tennis Member

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    Today I got approved (apparently this can change)... $90,200 configured price. 10,000 miles residual $54,404 -- 12,00 miles residual $53,502 -- 15,000 miles $52,600.
     
  16. NYL12

    NYL12 New Member

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    Just asking, does the rate seem a bit high at 4.08%. I would think that similar rates for this quality of car would be a bit lower.
     

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