Russia/Ukraine conflict

[CatB]

I don’t know why I can’t ‘gift’ this article, but I think the tone and balance matches the prevailing opinion here - Musk wanted to help, was afraid of being implicated in the beginning of ww3, Shotwell negotiated payment from Pentagon and then Elon got frustrated and nixed it. I don’t think it would be a surprise to anyone here, or an understatement, to say that Elon Musk definitely does not come off as a seasoned diplomat. I personally worry that his pro-Russian friends influence him in a lot of unfortunate ways - which is clearly OT, but some of us had similar concerns in the coronavirus thread.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/09/07/elon-musk-starlink-ukraine-russia-invasion/

 

[nativewolf]

As far as I know, this has been reported by Isaacson too. Maybe I am mistaken?

You are correct and I think this topic has been hashed to death here. The US military stepped in and took over the starlink delivery and it kept SpaceX from having to make or deny these sorts of decisions. That was the proper way to do it from the get go but the Pentagon is nothing if not slow. I refer you back to the GB junior invasion of Iraq and the terrible loss of soldiers due to lack of basic armor for humvees etc. All due to a pencil pushing war within pentagon as to how to provision, it was literally killing people while the equipment sat in yards in the USA.

 

[madodel]

Tim Snyder also mentions Musk cutting off Ukraine. Whatever the real situation, it resulted in the same outcome, thankfully only temporary, that AFU couldn't have internet access in occupied areas.

The state of the war
Thoughts from Kyiv
TIMOTHY SNYDER

Ukraine did want to press forward last year, before the fortifications were built. It lacked the necessary weapons, and Elon Musk chose to cut Ukraine off from communications. That move likely extended the war. Because Musk’s decision was based on his internalization of Russian propaganda about nuclear war, and was accompanied by his repetition of that propaganda, he made a nuclear war more likely. If powerful men convey the message that just talking about nuclear war is enough to win conventional wars, then we will have more countries with nuclear weapons and more conventional wars that can escalate into nuclear ones. Ukraine has been resistant to this line of Russian fearmongering, fortunately for us all.

 

[CitizenKane]

Strongly disagree. It is not up to Elon to openly pick a side in a global conflict. Let the US military do so, as a customer of SpaceX's Starlink, or the Ukranian military.

But saying Elon is the bad guy because he didn't choose to enter a war (making SpaceX a private military corporation, basically) is wrong and detracts from the real enemy in this conflict: Russia.

This unfortunately seems to be a common stand in the US these days. Russia invading Ukraine is not a "global conflict", no more than a rapist and a rape victim are having a "conflict" and should be left to sort it out among themselves. It is up to all of us who are living in democracies and believe in international law to strongly condemn Russia's aggression and do whatever we can to assist Ukraine in defending itself. The US used to understand this very well, having learned from WWII that imperialistic dictators need to be stopped. Ronald Reagan was instrumental in giving millions of Europeans back their freedom and other basic human rights.

Elon just shutting up would be disappointing but acceptable, but actively spreading Putin's lies, which he does, is awful. And the audacity to constantly tell Ukrainians that they should stop fighting is also incredibly offensive to all those Ukrainians who have willingly sacrificed themselves to remain free.

Finally, if I were a heartless person who only cared about how this affects my Tesla stocks - clearly my biggest investment - I would still be mad because it is so immensely stupid for a business leader to meddle in this and destroy so many people's view of the Tesla brand. I understand that for many Americans this is just another very distant war, but for us Europeans this is a matter of life and death.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

An Interview with English VO/subs with Max, the Russian pilot who flew a Mi-8 to Ukraine.
At 18:00 they discuss why Russia doesn't seem to have air superiority. Max suggests that most of the experienced pilots are gone so the young, inexperienced ones are only tasked with taking off, releasing long range missiles and landing.

All Russia seems capable of now is launching missiles and Iranian drones at civilians and grain silos, sending more poorly trained/equipped infantry to their death at the front line and using up their dwindling supplies of artillery and armoured vehicles.
A decisive move is what's needed, but where's it going to come from?
I can't help thinking that it wouldn't take very many F-16s in the hands of well-trained UKR pilots to turn the current situation on the ground around very quickly. Taurus and ATACMS would help, too.

 

[nativewolf]

An Interview with English VO/subs with Max, the Russian pilot who flew a Mi-8 to Ukraine.
At 18:00 they discuss why Russia doesn't seem to have air superiority. Max suggests that most of the experienced pilots are gone so the young, inexperienced ones are only tasked with taking off, releasing long range missiles and landing.

All Russia seems capable of now is launching missiles and Iranian drones at civilians and grain silos, sending more poorly trained/equipped infantry to their death at the front line and using up their dwindling supplies of artillery and armoured vehicles.
A decisive move is what's needed, but where's it going to come from?
I can't help thinking that it wouldn't take very many F-16s in the hands of well-trained UKR pilots to turn the current situation on the ground around very quickly. Taurus and ATACMS would help, too.

It would be nice (f16) for the weapons that come with it. However, not til next spring so that wont' be a quick fix. I think cluster HIMARS rounds would do more, faster, to shift the war. That and continued ammo supply.

 

[SO16]

A lot of people like to talk big about the decisions someone else should have made.

The US military should have stepped up earlier and be the ones making the decisions on where to activate Starlink from the beginning. As soon as Elon received the request, the US military should have stepped in. These decisions should not have fallen to Elon in the first place.

I don’t know why the detractors care wether Starlink was active or not. According to many of them, Starlink doesn’t work and Ukraine doesn’t need it.

Elon was correct for not turning Starlink on in Crimea.

If Elon’s reason to turn off Starlink in Russian controlled territory was due to concerns of Russians using it, that’s also valid.

It’s too bad that every decision made by Elon during this war wasn’t perfect. But my god, who’s is? This Monday morning quarterbacking is nuts. It’s one thing to evaluate past decisions but it’s another to hate the person if they made a bad call in the fog of war when their overall intention is for the good.

 

[X Fan]

Grain spats

Ukraine warns of legal action against the EU if grain import ban extends

Ukraine will not hesitate to take legal action and file a lawsuit against the European Union and EU Member States if the ban on importing Ukrainian grain in Poland, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia is extended after 15 September. This was the statement of Taras Kachka, Ukraine’s Deputy...

www.railfreight.com

and

Ukraine has started grain exports using Croatian infrastructure

What could be considered the most challenging solution in terms of implementation has now become another Ukrainian lifeline. The Ukrainian Minister of Economy, Yulia Svyridenko, has shared that grain volumes have already commenced exports via Croatia. In this solution, Ukraine utilises Croatian...

www.railfreight.com

Bravo to UK for protecting the grain ships:

UK planes protecting Ukraine ships from Russian attack after grain deal collapse

RAF is conducting patrols over the Black Sea to deter Putin from carrying out attacks on civilian vessels carrying grain exports

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[Buckminster]

I have just started reading "What we owe the future" which Elon has described as closest to his philosophy. Early chapter discusses the potential number of future people not yet born. 200k lost soldiers could equate to billions.

A reminder of how Elon thinks. He is worrying about the unborn great grandchildren of Ukrainian soldiers that will live to see the year 2300 if the war ends. It will seem strange to most of you not on the spectrum but I get it. It may even be incorrect thinking but that man's heart is pure gold.

 

[spacerfc]

but for us Europeans this is a matter of life and death.

Well if that's the case maybe you guys should act like it, like actually providing every weapon Ukraine requested and send your airforce to provide air cover for Ukraine. If you actually did this, the war would be over before Elon Musk has a chance to change him mind. It's utter hypocrisy to blame Elon for not giving Ukraine everything they requested, while your own government is doing exactly the same.

 

[CitizenKane]

A lot of people like to talk big about the decisions someone else should have made.

The US military should have stepped up earlier and be the ones making the decisions on where to activate Starlink from the beginning. As soon as Elon received the request, the US military should have stepped in. These decisions should not have fallen to Elon in the first place.

I don’t know why the detractors care wether Starlink was active or not. According to many of them, Starlink doesn’t work and Ukraine doesn’t need it.

Elon was correct for not turning Starlink on in Crimea.

If Elon’s reason to turn off Starlink in Russian controlled territory was due to concerns of Russians using it, that’s also valid.

It’s too bad that every decision made by Elon during this war wasn’t perfect. But my god, who’s is? This Monday morning quarterbacking is nuts. It’s one thing to evaluate past decisions but it’s another to hate the person if they made a bad call in the fog of war when their overall intention is for the good.

By Musk's own admission it seems perfectly clear that he had the opportunity to help Ukraine defend itself, and did not. I don't hate Elon Musk - actually I have since long been an admirer of him as an entrepreneur - but I think his actions (or inactions) in this case may have played a part in the deaths of many Ukrainians. With great power comes great responsibility, you can't stay "neutral" when one country tries to obliterate another. It is also very frustrating that an otherwise intelligent person does not listen to people with actual experience and knowledge of Russia, international law, foreign policy etc but instead listen to the advice of various tech bros and right wing nuts. When it comes to physics and technology, I doubt he forms his opinions based on what some random dudes write on the internet.

 

[CitizenKane]

Well if that's the case maybe you guys should act like it, like actually providing every weapon Ukraine requested and send your airforce to provide air cover for Ukraine. If you actually did this, the war would be over before Elon Musk has a chance to change him mind. It's utter hypocrisy to blame Elon for not giving Ukraine everything they requested, while your own government is doing exactly the same.

I am doing what I can as a regular citizen and in my country, Sweden, there is massive support for our government helping Ukraine more than they already do.

 

[SO16]

By Musk's own admission it seems perfectly clear that he had the opportunity to help Ukraine defend itself, and did not. I don't hate Elon Musk - actually I have since long been an admirer of him as an entrepreneur - but I think his actions (or inactions) in this case may have played a part in the deaths of many Ukrainians. With great power comes great responsibility, you can't stay "neutral" when one country tries to obliterate another. It is also very frustrating that an otherwise intelligent person does not listen to people with actual experience and knowledge of Russia, international law, foreign policy etc but instead listen to the advice of various tech bros and right wing nuts. When it comes to physics and technology, I doubt he forms his opinions based on what some random dudes write on the internet.

None of us know who all he listens to.

We’ve seen so called “experts” get things wrong from time to time.

The only decision I wish he would have made for Starlink is: “SpaceX’s decisions will be dictated by the US military in regards to Ukraine.” This would have absolved him from all this.

 

[CitizenKane]

None of us know who all he listens to.

We’ve seen so called “experts” get things wrong from time to time.

The only decision I wish he would have made for Starlink is: “SpaceX’s decisions will be dictated by the US military in regards to Ukraine.” This would have absolved him from all this.

On the contrary, if you follow Musk on Twitter, it is quite obvious which sources he reposts and quotes with remarks like "interesting" while disregarding all responses he gets from people actually knowledgeable in the matter. The statement that "We’ve seen so called “experts” get things wrong from time to time." sounds a lot like trying to justify truth relativism. There is a gray scale in any war, of course, but I cannot think of many that are so clearly against all international law and conventions as this, where Russia openly admits they wage war to exterminate Ukraine. This is also shown by how the international community almost unanimously condemns Russia.

I agree that letting the US military decide (and abstaining from extremely naive tweets about the war) would have been correct.

 

[AudubonB]

As I very strongly wrote in an in-post Mod note on the first post on this Starlink discussion, disseminating partial truths opens an unclosable Pandora’s box. If this subthread continues to veer away from the Ukrainian war into, as an example, individuals’ angst over their Teslas…the future of the thread is threatened.

Until now, this heretofore exceptional thread has been extremely little moderated, something which makes me - more than anyone else possibly can be - extremely happy.

Back on topic, everyone.

 

[nativewolf]

So as I am very tired about the EM stuff I think I'll post something unusual. Me being complementary of Trent Telenko.

Ukraine has started sending scout drones to Volgorad metro area. Usually this means mapping of defense networks followed up by a large scale attack on strategic assets.

Threadreaderapp link just came up: Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App

Trent put one and one together and I think he's right. I expect to see a larger mass drone attack shortly in that area. In addition to it matching the traditional approach it has been very very very quiet.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1699882423083782576

 

[Fred42]

So as I am very tired about the EM stuff I think I'll post something unusual. Me being complementary of Trent Telenko.

Ukraine has started sending scout drones to Volgorad metro area. Usually this means mapping of defense networks followed up by a large scale attack on strategic assets.

Threadreaderapp link just came up: Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App

Trent put one and one together and I think he's right. I expect to see a larger mass drone attack shortly in that area. In addition to it matching the traditional approach it has been very very very quiet.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1699882423083782576

Are they really sure they want to attack Stalingrad? This didn't work out too well before.

 

[iPlug]

A step closer to ATACMS, it seems:

The Biden administration is likely to send Ukraine long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, to help in its fight to repel the Russian invasion of its territory, according to U.S. officials.​

​

"They are coming," said one official who had access to security assistance plans. The official noted that, as always, such plans are subject to change until officially announced.​

US likely to send long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine for the first time: Officials

 

[BitJam]

Are they really sure they want to attack Stalingrad? This didn't work out too well before.

Ukraine has already gotten away with many drone attacks on Moscow so I imagine drone attacks will be fine. The historical jinx has been broken. However, marching on Moscow or Volgograd is probably still a bad idea. Just ask Prigo... oh wait.

 

[UncaNed]