Russia/Ukraine conflict

[Artful Dodger]

"Update from Ukraine | New Counterattack to Donetsk Airport | Ruzzian brigade runs away"

I'm done with Denys. He's slagging Elon again in today's video calling him "Mr. Cringe" because the Crimea Starlink coverage issue. Denys can get this SkyNet from the other private military company... oh wait, I guess those guys got shot down.

Ingrate.

 

[UncaNed]

All right, fair enough. Here y'go then:

 

[SO16]

A bit more info about Starlink and Crimea. Isaacson also updates the story.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1700345943105638636

 

[BitJam]

How the Pentagon assesses Ukraine’s progress
(A rare interview with America’s Defence Intelligence Agency)

How the Pentagon assesses Ukraine’s progress

A rare interview with America’s Defence Intelligence Agency

www.economist.com

[may be paywalled]

Mr Maul [director of analysis for the US DIA] is somewhat less gloomy. He notes that Sergei Surovikin, the Russian general who built the defensive lines, and Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose Wagner Group mercenaries achieved Russia’s most tangible gains of the past year, are both off the battlefield—the former sacked and the latter dead in a plane crash. Mr Maul, choosing his words with care, says that Ukraine’s recent successes are “significant” and give its forces a “realistic possibility”—intel-speak for 40-50% probability—of breaking the remaining Russian lines by the end of the year. But he warns that limited ammunition and worsening weather will make this “very difficult”.​

​

Attention is already turning to the next fighting season. Even without a breakthrough this year, the dia is moderately confident that if Ukraine can widen the salient around Robotyne, hold its positions and keep ammo flowing in, it will be well placed for a fresh push in 2024. ​

 

[BitJam]

An excellent interview with Major General Chip Chapman. He mentions what Trent Maul said but goes into far more detail. If you're going to watch one video about Ukraine this week, I recommend this one.

Putin’s dilemma: Crimea is ‘nearly cut off’ by Ukraine, and could lead to his downfall​

Ukraine is closer to cutting off Crimea than Putin thinks, and its liberation will ultimately lead to Putin’s fall from power, says Major General Chip Chapman. ​

• If Putin loses Crimea then he is likely finished
• Ukraine is winning the counter-battery battle (Russia is losing artillery)
• Forward loaded defense by Russia may be problematic (nod to @wdolson)
• Ukraine can strangle Crimea from Tokmak with long range fires
• Ukraine doesn't need to occupy all of their territory to win
• They just need Russia to leave either by collapse of the military or the downfall of Putin
• One of Russia's paths to victory is the West tiring of the war
• Another is a change of administration in the US
• [OTOH, Russia tiring it's aircraft is not a path to victory]
• But the EU is now providing an equivalent amount of military aid as the US

The Elon Musk stuff comes up in the last 10 minutes of the interview. Chapman handles it well IMO.

 

[MC3OZ]

I'm done with Denys. He's slagging Elon again in today's video calling him "Mr. Cringe" because the Crimea Starlink coverage issue. Denys can get this SkyNet from the other private military company... oh wait, I guess those guys got shot down.

Ingrate.

I understand both points of view, the problem, is Elon and the Ukrainians don't understand each other's point of view.

I haven't lost any respect for either party...

If we were in the position the Ukrainians are in we would be a bit blinkered, emotional, and intolerant, that is part of surviving.. Sometimes you can't survive by stepping back, being objective, and giving the benefit of the doubt, when you need to survive it is full commitment and no grey areas.

I fully understand why only a small percentage of the people on the planet understand Elon, in small samples sizes, he can be very hard to understand.

Even amongst TMC posters the amount of understanding of Elon is variable, and I am not claiming to be one of the ones who fully understands him. I understand him well enough to trust in in key areas of the Tesla business.

 

[heltok]

I understand both points of view, the problem, is Elon and the Ukrainians don't understand each other's point of view.

I haven't lost any respect for either party...

If we were in the position the Ukrainians are in we would be a bit blinkered, emotional, and intolerant, that is part of surviving.. Sometimes you can't survive by stepping back, being objective, and giving the benefit of the doubt, when you need to survive it is full commitment and no grey areas.

I fully understand why only a small percentage of the people on the planet understand Elon, in small samples sizes, he can be very hard to understand.

Even amongst TMC posters the amount of understanding of Elon is variable, and I am not claiming to be one of the ones who fully understands him. I understand him well enough to trust in in key areas of the Tesla business.

Some people are saying that Elon is a victim of Russian misinformation, many of the same people don’t realize when they are the victim of the same misinformation. Elon does things that benefits Ukraine, lessens US/EU dependency on oil etc. Russia wants this to stop/be slowed down…

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1700385718994919595

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Before we get a repeat of yesterday: keep the emotions out of the Elon-Ukraine discussion or it gets banned for good.

 

[lolachampcar]

One of the status videos said Russia will face a bullets or butter decision soon with Crimea (based on DIA and other assessments) once the land and water bridges are brought under fire pressure. It will be interesting to see which they choose.

 

[madodel]

A bipartisan group of American members of Congress condemn Putin as a War Criminal committing genocide in Ukraine.
U.S. lawmakers visiting The Hague say Putin is committing genocide in Ukraine

 

[iPlug]

Pipeline to Ukraine Refresher

GLSDBs: as soon as Autumn this year

F-16s: first deliveries as soon as New Year

ATACMS: unofficially green lit, delivery dates TBD


These items will be particularly useful in Winter/Spring when infantry/armor ground movements will be more challenging.

 

[Fred42]

Pipeline to Ukraine Refresher

GLSDBs: as soon as Autumn this year

F-16s: first deliveries as soon as New Year

ATACMS: unofficially green lit, delivery dates TBD


These items will be particularly useful in Winter/Spring when infantry/armor ground movements will be more challenging.

When would the ground typically be suitable for a spring offensive in southern and eastern Ukraine?

 

[petit_bateau]

This deserves a read

Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App

@TrentTelenko: I've talked about "Lanchester Square Law Collapse" in previous 🧵's. That is the collapse of the ability to replace effective troops with more such troops. We now have evidence of it's happening at sca...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[SouthFLGuy]

Continued ignoring multiple Moderator warnings result in poster's writing being replaced by this Green Note, plus poster gets a week-long holiday in an open canoe in the eye of Hurricane Lee.

 

[SouthFLGuy]

As above. Apologies to responsible posters that the thread has come to this.

 

[bkp_duke]

A bit more info about Starlink and Crimea. Isaacson also updates the story.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1700345943105638636

Pretty much what I said, in the now-deleted post (hopefully Elon's words will stand where mine get deleted).

 

[Artful Dodger]

This deserves a read

Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App

@TrentTelenko: I've talked about "Lanchester Square Law Collapse" in previous 🧵's. That is the collapse of the ability to replace effective troops with more such troops. We now have evidence of it's happening at sca...…

threadreaderapp.com

I found this part particularly interesting:

• And the cherry on top is with the Russian destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam.
• There is now a huge area of the former reservoir which is going to freeze solid when winter arrives to add a tremendous undefended gap in Russian lines.
• At some point very soon, Ukrainian mobile forces will be loose behind the Russian lines in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia or both.

This is when your Armored Cav saddles up and covers some ground...

Budmo!

 

[BitJam]

This deserves a read

Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App

@TrentTelenko: I've talked about "Lanchester Square Law Collapse" in previous 🧵's. That is the collapse of the ability to replace effective troops with more such troops. We now have evidence of it's happening at sca...…

threadreaderapp.com

Thanks! Lots of great info! This part caught my eye:

Russia has created deep WW2 scale minefields with trenchworks to stop Ukraine from moving their HIMARS into GMLRS range of the M-14 highway supplying RuAF.​

​

This is why 60% of Russian defensive efforts was in the covering area and 1st "Surovikin Line"​

​

If true this would explain why Russia has deployed their resources in a way that is far from optimal for resisting a ground attack. Also, if true then Ukraine must already be close to being able to reach the M-14 highway with HIMARS. I imagine Ukraine is trying to enlarge their salient so they can deploy HIMARS close enough to reach the M-14 but still out of range of effective Russian artillery.

The next sentence was poignant:

Ukraine has simply paid the blood price of sending sappers at night to clear minefields and has chewed through the 1st "Surovikin Line" with significant available reserves.​

​

For me, this sacrifice encapsulates the entire Ukrainian war effort. They are willing to pay almost any price to win the war and free their people from the horrors of Russian occupation. I wish more Western commentators would realize this is not a game. This is not about lines on a map. Ukrainians are fighting and dying to free their people from the rape, torture, murder, and genocide of Russian occupation.

 

[petit_bateau]

I found this part particularly interesting:

• And the cherry on top is with the Russian destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam.
• There is now a huge area of the former reservoir which is going to freeze solid when winter arrives to add a tremendous undefended gap in Russian lines.
• At some point very soon, Ukrainian mobile forces will be loose behind the Russian lines in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia or both.

This is when your Armored Cav saddles up and covers some ground...

Budmo!

Especially if the Ka52 fleet has been sufficiently attrited.