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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Just allowing the Russians to go home when they are losing a war and not pursuing them across the border and seizing Russian territory should be the gift the Russians get. Ukraine simply takes back all land that was part of Ukraine before 2014.
jeewee3000
Active Member
And Russia is tried internationally and has to spend x% of its GDP on a fund for rebuilding Ukraine for the coming decades. Russia just pulling back wouldn't feel like a true victory for Ukraine IMO.
Don't punish the people in the future, that's what caused Germany to elect Hitler. Just don't give back the seized Russian assets and use them to rebuild Ukraine.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I'm working under the assumption Russia as it stands today is pretty much done regardless. So non-territorial concessions don't really matter much.
Why do we care if Sweden and Finland join NATO when the whole point of NATO won't be a concern in 15 years?
Russia is a pure petro-state that's been pillaged by oligarchs and will utterly crumble once the world wakes up to peak oil having passed in 2019. Especially now they're so economically isolated.
Are we really worried about encouraging Putin to do this again? He'll be dead in a year or two and couldn't do it 4 or 5 years from now even if he somehow lives. Their position will only weaken from here on out regardless of how this trainwreck of an assault is ended.
We should just worry about them selling nukes.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
I'm pretty sure he means the status quo before 2/24, with Russian control of Crimea and parts of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts. Back to where things started, except much of Ukraine is in ruins while Russia is virtually unscathed.
Even if Ukraine were willing to accept that, I see no way Putin would give up his land bridge. They have to take it from him, which will take a lot longer than two months.
Why stop there? Take Crimea and blow up the Kerch Strait Bridge to prevent it from being used for reinforcements.
Beside Russia there are a few other world threats like China, North Korea, Iran, ...
RobStark
Well-Known Member
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Russian legislature wants to make sure they never get foreign direct investment again.
I've read that the Russians have conscripted basically every male who can hold a gun in LPR and DPR. They have been trying to use them as cannon fodder, but are getting less and less cooperation as the war grinds on.
I've also read that in early June a lot of contracts are up and the Russians are getting virtually no takers on re-upping their contracts. A big part of their army will go home in the coming weeks.
Looks like the push is on to encircle these twin cities in the east.
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Russia wages all-out assault to encircle Ukraine troops in east
Russian forces waged an all-out assault on Tuesday to encircle Ukrainian troops in twin eastern cities straddling a river, a battle that could determine the success or failure of Moscow's main campaign in the industrial heartland of Donbas.www.reuters.com
The Russians make a lot of noise about their "big" offensives and western media pick it up and run with it like they can actually achieve it. A few weeks ago there was talk about a Russian blitzkrieg in the south to join up their forces in Kherson with the forces in Transnistria. Since then the front line around Kherson has moved a bit eastward.
The modern Russian army was rebuilt around the BTG concept to be able to conduct breakthrough warfare (essentially blitzkrieg), but to be able to do that armies need to be trained in how to do it. The technique is that some forces fight to open a hole in the enemy's line, then armored columns pour through the gap and get into the enemy's rear areas causing chaos and confusion. A good breakthrough can smash and enemy force and leave the field wide open for the armor to run until they are constrained by supply shortages.
That's what happened in the first Gulf War when US armor broke out the first day and destroyed the Republican Guard. They could have gone all the way to Baghdad if not stopped for geopolitical reasons. The US and Commonwealth forces had a tough slog breaking out from Normandy, but they rolled up the rest of northern France very quickly after breakout.
The Russians achieved the first part of breakout in Operation Bagration in July 1944 when they smashed the German Army Group Center. There was virtually nothing between the Russian forces and Berlin, but they burned up so much supply on the initial assault they didn't have the fuel available to penetrate very deeply into German held territory.
The Russians did pull off some smaller scale breakthroughs in WW II, but the modern Russian army has not trained for it and can't pull it off. They try to break through the Ukrainian lines, but even if they gain ground, they lose a lot of forces doing it.
The big advance the Russians made the other day was about 3-5 miles with heavy losses.
Kamil Galeev has been talking about the different ethnic groups in Russia and quite a few of them want to be free of Moscow. The Chechens have developed the cultural concept the most. Kadyrov is biding his time and keeping his forces out of the fight. I expect he will start a Chechen rebellion as soon as Russia's army gets too weak to fight them. That may trigger rebellions in other provinces too.
Have to imagine Ukraine considers this a fully legit and priority target once their capabilities are there.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Putin hasn't fallen yet. First he must fall. And then we must also see what happens next. A lot of people thought that the Cold War was over when the Soviet Union collapsed. And look how that turned out... And even if Russia becomes a stable democracy some 30-40 years from now (hopefully sooner of course), there will still be China, Iran and North Korea just like @kabin pointed out...
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Everything I'm reading is saying Russia is making slow and stead gains around Severodonestk and Lysychans'k. Appears Russia has committed a large force to taking this area. Also making gains from Kherson towards Mykolaiv.
Anyone heard of any substantial counterattacks, specifically in these areas to knock them back? I'm getting a tad concerned, to be honest.
Anyone heard of any substantial counterattacks, specifically in these areas to knock them back? I'm getting a tad concerned, to be honest.
There are few misrepresentation of the truth more ill used this oft trotted out falsehood- I can't believe it was ever taught but it was put forth by the german political elite and stuck. The German elite were never displaced after WWI, they acted at once to contravene anything they agreed to at Versailles, the German state was responsible for initiating the war, and barely paid any of the punishment. In fact, they escaped so so lightly that it encouraged terrible future behavior. Nazis , industry and military were rearming a mere 14 years later to finish WWI.
What should have happened is what happened after WWII. The prussian elite and nazi powers were completely crushed. The prussians were force marched across what is now Kalingrad Russia and Western Poland and tens of thousands died. German major cities were ruble. They lived at the mercy of the conquers. That we (the west) were gentle is a testament to our ancestors grace.
But that is what should have happened to the germans after WWI.
The important lesson for the Ukraine is this very lesson. Never stop fighting too soon. The allies were exhausted but should have pressed on for 6 more months. Germany should have been crushed.
The news is a bit thin today, but Mick Ryan (retired Australian general) had an analysis yesterday
Thread by @WarintheFuture on Thread Reader App
The Ukrainians are very effective at hurting the Russians when they are on the move, so letting them capture some ground lines up targets for the Ukrainians. The NATO artillery is better at hitting dug in troops than conventional artillery, but hitting them in the open is easier than that.
British intelligence also reported they think that Russia is running out of drones. The Ukrainians claim to have knocked out 480 of them so far. Both sides have been making heavy use of drones for reconnaissance. The Ukrainians are getting better drones to replace losses while the Russians don't have a good pool of replacements. The Chinese have said they will no longer sell larger commercial drones to either side.
The primary reason the Marshall Plan was approved was because there was a new enemy. Unfortunately if the USSR hadn't been a threat, Germany, Japan, and other countries devastated by the war probably would have been left to their own devices. George HW Bush had a similar Marshall Plan to help Russia after the end of the cold war, but Congress was not interested and it led to Vladimir Putin.
I hope the world pours money into Ukraine to rebuild after this war. It is not only the humanitarian thing to do, it's also good politics down the line. A grateful Ukraine will be a fierce western ally for the next century or more. If played right it could dramatically weaken China by setting up Ukraine to make all the stuff we're making in China now.
Institute for the Study of War If you wish to keep up to date this is hands down the best summary I've seen from people that know what they are talking about. No twatter crap, no youtube just good analysis.
I think @bkp_duke recommended that site a few weeks ago. He may have been looking for some other information to correlate what ISW is saying.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
There is a guy on Youtube from Ukraine that has been reporting and doing some pretty good updates. Denys Davydov:
I've been trying to figure out where he gets his maps.
I read ISW daily, and if you read between the lines they are putting up data that also has concern for those two cities being overrun.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
The map he's using is in the description to that video. But: It didn't work for me earlier this evening... It was working yesterday though...
