Seeking opinions: Upgrade now to FSD or wait?

[Cbass206]

I have a 2017 AP2.5 S90D that I purchased with EAP but not FSD. I figured I would just drop the dough on FSD when the actual product dropped. In the meanwhile I've seen a number of unexpected pricing changes across the Teslasphere including the FSD product. I asked customer service about the price change for FSD and the email I got back was:

"Thanks for reaching out, as of today, Tesla will honor the $4,000 pricing for anyone that ordered a car on or before 6/25/18. This will be done entirely on the back-end, you can order now with $5,000 shown and be assured you will get a $1,000 refund or wait for the price to be updated for the full self driving. Keep in mind this pricing is always subject to change."
​

I'm considering just plunking down the $4k now to lock in the pricing and somewhat nebulous terms of FSD now before Tesla makes any other changes to that program. On the other hand, it sure seems like when I bought my car a year ago, it was clear that FSD would be a $4k upgrade in the future, not necessarily subject to a changing price.

I have to imagine that I'm in the position of most owners, what are you guys doing about this? Interested in your thoughts.

 

[ckoval7]

Personally I don't see FSD being useful for another 3 to 6 years. At the rate people seem to buy new Teslas, you'll probably trade the car in before you can make use of the FSD. From what I understand, the prepaid FSD stays with the car, not the owner. Just my 2 cents.

 

[Naonak]

FSD has been "coming soon" for the past 3 years. If you think it's going to be here in the next 3 months, or even a year, you are dreaming.

Here's my prediction I've been sticking to for the past 2 years:

AP1 promised many features that it will never see.
AP2 promised many features it will never see, but it will provide features that AP1 promised.
AP3 will promise features it will never see, but provide the features AP2 promised.

AP1 promised on-ramp to off-ramp driving, Summon, and a few others things. Those things we will never see on AP1.
AP2 (well, AP2.5) will likely delivery barely passable On-ramp to Off-ramp driving. MIGHT provide summon.
AP3 will provide a barely passable FSD, pretty solid on-ramp to off-ramp, and decent summon.

Paying for FSD now on AP2/2.5 cars is just throwing money away for years. Maybe you'll get an upgrade for free, maybe you won't... but either way, you'll have given away thousands of dollars for zero interest for years. I suspect those with AP2 are going to be left in the lurch, just like AP1 was left in the lurch and the most compelling promised features never materialize. AP2's most compelling feature, FSD, will never materialize, and will instead be pushed off on to AP3.

 

[ronm2948]

I bought FSD with my car, but I did so with a lot of hesitation. I am actually highly sceptical that FSD will arrive anytime soon, but I also love technology and figure that Tesla will eventually roll out some interesting improvements under the FSD umbrella, but far short of FSD. For example, I would love to see Tesla willing to let FSD drivers drive on the freeway without having to hold the wheel.

I don’t regret paying for FSD, but if I was in your situation and did not pay for it up front, I would definitely wait until something concrete comes out before forking over the money. There is always the possibility that Tesla will come up with some amazing advances in FSD, and decides that they can charge more for it and it might cost you extra. But I think it is far more likely that FSD will languish for years, maybe providing some marginal improvements over EAP.

 

[croman]

Pricing is always subject to change until you actually buy it. You don't have an option contract with Tesla.

 

[Barklikeadog]

people like to hope. this is why they send money to Nigeria

 

[ewoodrick]

I'm guessing that the on-ramp to off-ramp features of V9 will only be available in the FSD package.

With Elon indicating that a computer upgrade will be needed for the full package, you are hedging your bets on how much the price may go up.

 

[suwaneedad]

Pricing is always subject to change until you actually buy it. You don't have an option contract with Tesla.

However, for some reason Tesla bothered to state a post-delivery price for FSD when I bought my Tesla, so I do expect them to honor that offered price if I elect to buy FSD in the future. I took screenshots as evidence, if Tesla gives me any hassle about it down the road. There was no reason for them to list a post-delivery price at that time, unless they planned to offer it. (It should instead say "subject to future market conditions" or something like that.)

 

[croman]

However, for some reason Tesla bothered to state a post-delivery price for FSD when I bought my Tesla, so I do expect them to honor that offered price if I elect to buy FSD in the future. I took screenshots as evidence, if Tesla gives me any hassle about it down the road. There was no reason for them to list a post-delivery price at that time, unless they planned to offer it. (It should instead say "subject to future market conditions" or something like that.)

Irrelevant. They made an offer, it is not indefinite. You can act or be too late. It's not a promise, it's not a contract, it's an offer. Offers last until they are accepted or revoked. Basic contract law. Keep your screenshots they are irrelevant.

 

[suwaneedad]

Irrelevant. They made an offer, it is not indefinite. You can act or be too late. It's not a promise, it's not a contract, it's an offer. Offers last until they are accepted or revoked. Basic contract law. Keep your screenshots they are irrelevant.

Interesting. And disappointing.

 

[TechOps]

I would relabel "Upgrade now" to "Donate now".

Your decision should be driven by how you generally feel about giving interest-free loans that have a significant chance of never being paid back. (e.g. do you frequently loan money to friends/family?)

 

[Tam]

Interesting. And disappointing.

Tesla has a history of changing prices without notice. Such as an increased price for 2012 premium sound, extended warranty, maintenance plans...

Recent increase in paint color prices is another example.

If you paid for it before the price increase, that lower price is enforceable as a contract.

If you didn't pay the lower price before the increase, your screenshot is useless and unenforceable.

 

[Cbass206]

All of these contributions are good points of view and I appreciate it. So much I love about my car, but I do wish that Tesla was more transparent with their plans so I could make more informed decisions. I'm sure I'm not alone there.

 

[AndrewTX]

All of these contributions are good points of view and I appreciate it. So much I love about my car, but I do wish that Tesla was more transparent with their plans so I could make more informed decisions. I'm sure I'm not alone there.

That's the downside of Tesla and its unlikely to change any time soon. As noted above, ordering FSD right now is simply giving them an interest-free loan with highly uncertain payback date. I would assume that you have better things to do with your money.

 

[ucmndd]

I'm guessing that the on-ramp to off-ramp features of V9 will only be available in the FSD package.

Which would subject them to massive false advertising claims for EAP and lead to a litany of litigation (which I would happily pile on to).
On-ramp to off-ramp has been an advertised EAP feature for 2 years. It's STILL an advertised EAP feature to this day.

As for voluntarily giving Tesla another $4,000 today with the benefit of full hindsight of the last two years... I'm sorry, that's just deluded.

 

[KyleDay]

I'm in the same boat and I likely won't buy until there's ACTUALLY SOMETHING TO GET with my cash.

 

[D.E.]

I have a 2017 AP2.5 S90D that I purchased with EAP but not FSD. I figured I would just drop the dough on FSD when the actual product dropped. In the meanwhile I've seen a number of unexpected pricing changes across the Teslasphere including the FSD product. I asked customer service about the price change for FSD and the email I got back was:

"Thanks for reaching out, as of today, Tesla will honor the $4,000 pricing for anyone that ordered a car on or before 6/25/18. This will be done entirely on the back-end, you can order now with $5,000 shown and be assured you will get a $1,000 refund or wait for the price to be updated for the full self driving. Keep in mind this pricing is always subject to change."
​

I'm considering just plunking down the $4k now to lock in the pricing and somewhat nebulous terms of FSD now before Tesla makes any other changes to that program. On the other hand, it sure seems like when I bought my car a year ago, it was clear that FSD would be a $4k upgrade in the future, not necessarily subject to a changing price.

I have to imagine that I'm in the position of most owners, what are you guys doing about this? Interested in your thoughts.

It depends what you are looking for. If you want real FSD, I'd wait. I am waiting. I'm waiting for reliable full self driving. Not nanny mode, not entrance and exit highway only, and not beta. I think it'll be here when my grandson graduates from high school. He's a toddler. I'll be in my 80's. I'll probably need it then.

I did spring for enhanced autopilot, so far I've got “30 sec nanny mode, beta version, lane centering with intelligent speed control, and turn signal initiated lane change for divided highways”. I also got a bit of “surprise bonus braking”, and with the latest beta a new feature, worrisome “wide lane wander”. That's fine, I'm happy with all that.

If you want FSD, it'll be here but it'll be nanny mode, incremental beta versions for a long time. By the time it really gets here for real, everyone will have it. When the software matures it'll be a low cost upgrade, like GPS is now. When I first bought GPS, it was $3000 or so, it came with a screen in the dash, a dedicated CD changer in the trunk, and updates were well over $100. The GPS didn't work very well. Whole cities weren't mapped yet, including mine. My BMW dealer promised my city would be mapped within 6 months. It was 4 years. And then it would run you way out into the country then helpfully tell you you were off the map. We still have the car. We use Google Maps on an iPhone in it. That GPS purchase was, and continues to be an automotive lesson for me; buy what already works, not promises. If it costs more to do that, it is OK. It is much more bothersome to buy what doesn't work.

That said, I do enjoy bleeding edge living, so I may go for it early. I do want something minimally useful, though.

There is one other thing. When I use beta computer software, it can crash on its own. With car beta software, I'm in the car.

FSD will go through some growing pains. The question for you is do you want to watch the pain, or do you want to live it?

 

[croman]

Interesting. And disappointing.

I can understand why you feel that way. As stated, it does seem like a promise that buyers think they can rely on existing indefinitely. Tesla's business operations are a big weakness. Their cars are superb though.

 

[Daniellane]

I have also been debating pulling the trigger at $4,000.
If for no other reason, then to guarantee the upgrade to the newer “Hardware 3” that supports 2,000 FPS vs the current 200 FPS
(Doesn’t seem to be nearly enough for the data from 8 cameras(240 FPS@ 30 FPS/camera))
Tesla’s new Autopilot hardware upgrade will be free for owners with the $3,000 to $5,000 ‘Full Self-Driving’ package

 

[KyleDay]

I have also been debating pulling the trigger at $4,000.
If for no other reason, then to guarantee the upgrade to the newer “Hardware 3” that supports 2,000 FPS vs the current 200 FPS
(Doesn’t seem to be nearly enough for the data from 8 cameras(240 FPS@ 30 FPS/camera))
Tesla’s new Autopilot hardware upgrade will be free for owners with the $3,000 to $5,000 ‘Full Self-Driving’ package
View attachment 338144

If you believe giving Tesla money now will prevent disappoinment in the future, please take a second to rethink that.