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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
The reason I think 180 is where the stock should take a breather is because we're at the 0.382 retracement of the last leg down, my favorite target for the first spike from the low. Also blue trend line running from 237. The chart started to look dull right around 179. Can overshoot to 185 or 190 but a pull back has to happen to partially fill the gap.
No, I mean 173 because a pull back is technically required. If not now, then next week. Depend on how many DTE your calls have left by then, it may be prudent to just close them once the gap is partially filled.
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i am also thinking 175 or even 170
there is a "Fair Value Gap" on those levels
Fair Value Gap Basics | TrendSpider Blog
If you're a price action trader, you might be familiar with a concept that has been making the rounds lately called the Fair Value Gap. In this article ...
trendspider.com
So I "bought" a handful of March $300 calls yesterday for a lottery play on this dip. Checked on them this morning to see how they were doing and - oops - I actually sold that handful of March $300s. Bought them back immediately for a very modest loss, but that is super annoying.
My only thought is that FOMC minutes today could spark a huge rally that doesn't see us return to these levels for awhile. (Hopefully never.) Highly doubtful, but possible.
JSML
Member
Rolled Nov 25 CC 182.50 to Dec 2 CC 190
I also think the SP will settle at 180 or below Friday but just in case.
I also think the SP will settle at 180 or below Friday but just in case.
Minutes rarely diverge from the actual presser which we already know about. If minutes were that important, you would see the market behave quite drastically differently today.
Gap fills actually are deeply rooted in the human psychology. It is unclear if this is the beginning of a new bull run or just a short cover rally. The area between 170 and 173 was never traded from the low. Market needs to know there will be actually buying in that area to support a bull run and the only way to find out is to go back there at some point. If we were in wave 3, it would be different.
I bought another 400 TSLA shares overnight, for the low low price of $293.33, bargain!
The PUTs had expiry of Jan.2023, early assigned just before the stock started rallying today.
Somebody knew something I did not apparently.
The PUTs had expiry of Jan.2023, early assigned just before the stock started rallying today.
Somebody knew something I did not apparently.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
This never makes any sense to me.
Like, if a burger cost $3 yesterday... then when they opened today it was $4.... and people are BUYING IT AT $4....nobody ever thinks "We have to go back and check if anyone wants one at $3.50"
So why if a stock closed at say 165 yesterday, then opens at 175 today, and people are BUYING at 175 and higher, does anyone need to, or even care, if anybody will buy at 170?
I don't deny gaps fill- I've just never heard a non-voodoo reason why.
I end up moving all my puts to Jan 2025 which I actually hated doing but I just don't see another way of avoiding assignment with the current stock trend. Also, rolling to the next expiration gave me no premium. All the of my puts have a breakeven of about $300 which is not horrible IMO...
A burger stand is not a good analogy since once you've consumed the burger, it's gone. Owning and trading shares have a lasting impact. As such, I'll use the dance floor as an analogy.
Say the club opens from 12 am to 12 pm. During these hours you can meet other singles and if you like someone, you'll exchange number and then you 2 go back to the club the next evening. However, if you didn't find anyone and go home alone yesterday, only to be drugged on your way home and dragged back into the club today without a partner, you will dance when the music is on as there will be other single people at the club but deep down you don't know this person and because you were never given a choice. In your current state of mind, you don't trust this person.
The overnight gap up creates a disconnect between 2 regular trading sessions. Market participants were never given a choice to buy or not buy TSLA at 171 but trading is going to take place anyway at 173 because when the music is on you have to either dance or sit out. You can truly feel good only if you can see with your own eyes someone else is willing to buy TSLA at 171 when given the choice. Call it herd mentality. But again, this only happens outside of wave 3 where uncertainties are present. Once we're in wave 3 and market participants widely anticipate a huge move in the direction of the trend, gaps won't be filled until the wave is complete.
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Looks like I sold shares at the "bottom" once again.With the SP at $170, so close to my Margin call $165 threshould I sold about 25% of my shares in my margin account at $171. This brings down my margin call threshould from $165 to $138 or so.
as much as I hate missing out when it goes up, I think I would hate being margin called and blowing up my account even more. On the other hand, the margin balance is now small enough that I could ride the stock down to $20/shares if I pump in cash from external lines. (was about $100/share) before.
My market timing is terrible, usually when I sell, it's going to bounce after.. You are all welcome.
Looks like I did sell that 12/16 -210c at a good time on friday though! and on the bright side I'm saving 8.5% interest (and increasing with fed rate hikes) with a 35% smaller margin loan balance.
Added a new cc sale today on the bounce STO 12/2 -200c for 0.96, SP around $178.66
Positions: 12/16 -210c, 12/2 -200c.
But in all seriousness, I think we all have our own approaches and as we share notes we go through phases of trying the same ideas out, and similar trades too, like a hive-mind... which is why everyone's now getting margin-calls
There was a time, a few years back, when Max Pain was pretty reliable, until it wasn't... then there were levels of resistance/support, which worked until they didn't... now we have Fibonacci's from @Yoona and Elliot Waves from @dl003, which are too complicated for my simple brain...
So I tend to mostly rely on gut-feeling, taking into account things like MP, TA, etc., but sentiment can override all that stuff in an instant, and not to forget momentum... then some weeks it pays to be contrary, when people are too bullish, or too bearish, do the opposite, that can pay off
Most of all, don't bet the farm, write strikes you can live with if exercised early, avoid leverage and margin - then you're golden
corduroy
Active Member
Looking at where we are in the trading channel, I can't bring myself to sell calls. Seems like it would be the equivalent of selling puts at the top of the Hertz run last year. Of course, we could go back to 150 and they would be a great idea, but I'm thinking that is less likely now.
So I'm just sitting on the sidelines, trying to stay of of trouble - still nursing my -245 and -250 puts along.
So I'm just sitting on the sidelines, trying to stay of of trouble - still nursing my -245 and -250 puts along.
Readjusted, buying back CSPs on local SP pops. Not perfect, but I’m ok with it. Bought another 100 shares and sold the CC. Now all $180 straddles 12/02, 12/09, 12/30. Now even more overweighted on CCs. Still holding 12/09 +c220s as a hedge just in case, but expect these to be a total loss. A bit more free cash now available for buybacks and rolls, but not enough to fill out another lot. I don’t expect it, but if there’s an afternoon SP drop, I’ve got more small buys set starting at $170.xx. Edit: reminder for the newbies, I’m still in the share accumulation phase (though getting close to finished), and all in IRAs, no margin, cash-secured puts and share-secured covered calls only.
just write with 10% of you maximum possible number of contracts, then it's easy to roll out of trouble, you don't want to be betting the farm now, but you want some income, it's all about risk management
TA/fibs are not for everyone, but it "elevated my game" and increased my success rate and confidence level
now i can't live without it and am even paying top price subscription for it
for years i was baffled as to why sp magically stops in mid-air or reverses randomly, now at least i have some clue why
for ex, today i experienced hallelujah 2x
1) i had FOMO when sp went up past 180 but i said nah, there's a .382 so i will place a buy order at 178; it got filled 90 mins later, saving me $3
2) sp dropped today to 177.58 and reversed; in my former life i would be clueless and spinning, but now i know it's the same supp since last Fri morning's 177.59... maybe that's today's noon bottom?
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