That is part of it, but it seemed like everyday there were $Million+ orders in one block coming in for December Puts at 150, etc. That is not retail buying protective puts. That is a hedge fund trying to force the SP down.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
IMO the random upgrade from sell to hold by CITI with a higher PT was a much bigger indicator that they(CITI) wanted to trade TSLA on the long side. I mean come on can you make your game plan anymore obvious?
Edit: just saw you touched on the CITI upgrade a bit in your later post.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
For what it's worth, I'm seeing anecdotes on Reddit of Tesla still sticking to their policy of disallowing delays. So Tesla seems confident that for every cancellation, they have another customer on a wait-list. Could still cause some logistics issues, though:
So something I'll be paying full attention to tomorrow is the rising wedge marked in the screenshot below. Notice how the it terminates at 200 on Monday 11/28. Conveniently, that's where the hourly 200 EMA will be. This EMA has acted as resistance against many first spikes from the low in TSLA. Rising wedge is a bearish pattern, which in this case terminates right at this strong resistance. If TSLA does not fall out of this rising wedge on Friday then I'll bet it will be rejected at 200 on Monday, go all the way back to 172 before bouncing. This will create an inverse head & shoulder pattern which could take it all the way to 228 - the target for wave 3/C. Notice I'm writing 3/C because right now I can't say for sure 100% if this is a new bull run or a zig zag correction. The TSLA fanboi in me says the former while the chartist says trade the chart and wait for confirmation. If I were you, I'd go and draw this rising wedge on the chart at my earliest convenience and keep and eye on it tomorrow.
What's the confirmation? 2 scenarios:
1/ Either TSLA decisively punctures through 228 and the blue S/R line above; or
2/ TSLA pulls back shallowly no lower than 200 before going up again - takes a while to play out so 200 will be key
What this blue S/R you ask? It has acted as support and resistance at multiple major junctions in 2022.
The other scenario is TSLA will pull back first thing tomorrow, falling out of the wedge. My wave count favors this scenario but I'll keep an open mind.
Here're all the times the hourly 200 EMA has acted as resistance against the first spike from a major low in TSLA.
What's the confirmation? 2 scenarios:
1/ Either TSLA decisively punctures through 228 and the blue S/R line above; or
2/ TSLA pulls back shallowly no lower than 200 before going up again - takes a while to play out so 200 will be key
What this blue S/R you ask? It has acted as support and resistance at multiple major junctions in 2022.
The other scenario is TSLA will pull back first thing tomorrow, falling out of the wedge. My wave count favors this scenario but I'll keep an open mind.
Here're all the times the hourly 200 EMA has acted as resistance against the first spike from a major low in TSLA.
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I run a free discord server for people speaking my language who are aspiring TSLA holders. Lots of noises with me the only TSLA chartist. I don't think it'll be much more helpful than what I'm posting here.
Thanks again! This is great and we’ll be watching closely.
In your current opinion are those of us with 195 calls for next Friday (12/2) still safe or better to BTC at first chance/dips for a loss and reposition higher? We have next Monday-Friday upward action to worry about.
Here are again all the times TSLA got rejected by the hourly 200 EMA and retraced at least 50%. Wouldn't you say these lows were pretty scary, end-of-the-world type in their own right? I was there so I know. Wouldn't you think to yourself "hmmm, if we bounce from this abyss, we'll never see these prices again" just like you're thinking now? You would and you would be wrong every time.
Here are 2 more: the June 2019 low and COVID crash low
So it's not my opinion that once we've topped out initially, the stock will retrace at least 50%. If it tops out at 200, it will go back to at least 183. There's no upward pressure afterward to worry about until the retracement is complete. At 183 with 2-3 DTE, you can close your 195C's for pennies.
In all of these examples, only once did TSLA not get rejected by the hourly 200 EMA and that's after the June 2019 low but it still retraced 50% from the top. Probabilities say 200 as the top and 183 as minimum retracement is a safe bet.
The good thing about this rising wedge is the slope is extremely steep. For TSLA to stay within it today, we're talking about another $10 day so we should know pretty quickly if it's set up to do something like that. I'll try and keep everyone updated. I've never seen a true break upward from a rising wedge.
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jeewee3000
Active Member
So it does look like 185 was the top of wave 1. Given the heavy put OI, it's possible we'll chop around this 180 area for a couple days before deciding to visit low 170s. I will be taking off my leap naked call hedges at 175.
Fab!
Do you still see a December rally of sorts? Many are buying 12/30 220C (as a lotto probably).
FYI: Today is a short trading day, the market closes 3 hours early at 1:00 PM ET.
So may sure you close out anything that needs closed out early.
So may sure you close out anything that needs closed out early.
JSML
Member
Closed my hedge of 2025 Jan -400 CC and -480 CC for 8% profit. I think there is a good chance that the bottom is already in and a hedge is no longer needed.
Rolled Nov 25 CC 187.5 and 192.5 to Dec 2 CC 195 and 200, Previously rolled CC 182.5 Nov 25 to Dec 2 190.
Now I have CC 190, 195 and 200 for Dec 2. And puts Dec 2 -p167.5. Jan 23 -p156.6.
Rolled Nov 25 CC 187.5 and 192.5 to Dec 2 CC 195 and 200, Previously rolled CC 182.5 Nov 25 to Dec 2 190.
Now I have CC 190, 195 and 200 for Dec 2. And puts Dec 2 -p167.5. Jan 23 -p156.6.
This is going according to my plan so I still see wave 3/C hitting 200 mid December, probably around CPI release. Wave 1/A only ran for roughly $20. It's a tiny wave 1, smallest in 2 years but what important is it's a good looking wave 1. My rough estimate for the end of wave 5 is about 215-225 somewhere around ER before retracing deeply to at least 195. If that seems low, keep in mind that as long as it's a bona fide 5 wave sequence, we WILL make new highs after retracing from 215-225. Think of this period as Russian doll no. 0. We'll work our way upward and outward in a steady manner, as long as we don't go back.
Rolled 11/25 -177.5cc to 12/2 same strike, will manage early in the coming week.
I have a strong feeling the next 3-4 months will look like what NFLX went through after hitting the 0.764 all time retracement in May. Slow & steady finding its way up but the most important part is the structure is healthy.
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