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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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Checking in for an objective take on my plan below in case what I’m seeking to do is dangerous/foolish and if there’s a better way to accomplish the same goal or similar:

Situation
I’m bag-holding 5,800 TSLA shares with a CB of around $309. Didn’t sell when all support began giving way until it was too late. Paid my dues!

Of the 5,800 shares, 1,900 were put to me recently at CB of $242 (12/16 266.66 CSP gone rouge) which added about $460k to my margin balance.

For various reasons I cannot sell shares at current prices and eat the losses. Plus I’m okay waiting this out even if it’s a year or two and converting them to a long-term investment and only sell some at new highs whenever they’ll come in order to pay off whatever margin is left (I’ll slowly pay it down with other income). But this means paying TD about $3k/mo interest on the margin, and some $$ for buying occasional garbage puts to protect my margin (and the risk if TSLA breaks below 130 which will put my whole portfolio in danger unless I buy even more puts, but maybe we’ve found a bottom and we’ll see 242 before 100).

Current Plan
Sell Covered Calls on the 5,800 shares while waiting out the famine. Locate 2-3 resistance levels above current share price and choose a weekly strike slightly above that (for instance 12/2 202.50, which is about 15-20 delta; 80-85% chance OTM) and sell 58x contracts (was selling for around $6-8k today), rinse and repeat every week (even scalp/BTC on dips along the way when possible) = around $15k/mo.

-Is this realistic?

-What are some ways you found that works for choosing a strike if you DIDN’T want your shares to be called away but you also want decent premiums/income?

-Would you do the same if you HAD to hold onto the shares? What would you different?

Thanks in advance!

🙏
Selling contracts at a "safe" strike, will work until it doesn't, then you could be left with 100% of your shares underwriting DITM calls, which is difficult to recover, especially if the stock just keeps going up, day after day, and yes, this has happened several times over the years when least expected. What would your strategy be if that were to happen?

Having personally been burned several times in this way (also to the downside with puts), rather than writing all my shares against calls, I tend to do it with a smaller number ATM, or even ITM. Most of the time these expire, can be closed with profits or have an easy roll. If they go dITM then dealing with 10x contracts, as opposed to 100x is no big deal, gives you the possibility to roll them way up and out if you wish, because you still haven't committed all your shares you can also add contracts to facilitate the roll, or just throw them way OTM and write a fresh 5x, 10x for the next week ATM -> rinse/repeat

Not saying this will work for you, but it certainly does for me

Another escape strategy for ITM calls, as long as you don't have too many, is to straddle them with puts. Example, I have 20x -c180's for this week, which I'm expecting (hoping actually) will be ITM on Friday. For the moment, a free-roll would be to 20x -c185 for next week, but another strategy could be to straddle them with puts, why do this, because it will cut the contracts in half, and being a straddle, one side of the trade will expire and you've halved your exposure. Of course you need to have the cash to cover the puts, and be comfortable with the possibility of getting more shares, but puts at this SP aren't the same as puts in the mid 200's, risk is way less - although not zero, of course

Or you can combine the lot - roll a few to March, some to next week higher strike, some to same strike with a few puts -> many possibilities
 
That's not 100% True. There is delta in the options too. Which is why you hear the term delta hedging. If the call is far enough OTM then it shouldn't effect the margin if you sell 2 or even 3 on 100 shares.

I'll give you an extreme example. You have 100 shares and sell 10 weekly OTM $500 strike price option. That most likely won't really effect your margin until the stock gets much closer to 500.
Yes agreed. I just simplified it to make it easier.

I have -c600, -c420, -c700 Jan 24 calls and they do not affect my margin very much. I don't even count those in my calculations.
 
Checking in for an objective take on my plan below in case what I’m seeking to do is dangerous/foolish and if there’s a better way to accomplish the same goal or similar:

Situation
I’m bag-holding 5,800 TSLA shares with a CB of around $309. Didn’t sell when all support began giving way until it was too late. Paid my dues!

Of the 5,800 shares, 1,900 were put to me recently at CB of $242 (12/16 266.66 CSP gone rouge) which added about $460k to my margin balance.

For various reasons I cannot sell shares at current prices and eat the losses. Plus I’m okay waiting this out even if it’s a year or two and converting them to a long-term investment and only sell some at new highs whenever they’ll come in order to pay off whatever margin is left (I’ll slowly pay it down with other income). But this means paying TD about $3k/mo interest on the margin, and some $$ for buying occasional garbage puts to protect my margin (and the risk if TSLA breaks below 130 which will put my whole portfolio in danger unless I buy even more puts, but maybe we’ve found a bottom and we’ll see 242 before 100).

Current Plan
Sell Covered Calls on the 5,800 shares while waiting out the famine. Locate 2-3 resistance levels above current share price and choose a weekly strike slightly above that (for instance 12/2 202.50, which is about 15-20 delta; 80-85% chance OTM) and sell 58x contracts (was selling for around $6-8k today), rinse and repeat every week (even scalp/BTC on dips along the way when possible) = around $15k/mo.

-Is this realistic?

-What are some ways you found that works for choosing a strike if you DIDN’T want your shares to be called away but you also want decent premiums/income?

-Would you do the same if you HAD to hold onto the shares? What would you different?

Thanks in advance!

🙏
Realistic, yes, and agree with @ReddyLeaf response also.. This is the basic idea of the weekly CC for income, always a question of where do you put your strike. The key question is what do you do when the SP looks like it will end up ITM.. do you roll or do you let your shares get called away (understanding that the latter is the result you don’t want). From my experience, and thus my perspective, I have found many times that when I roll out prematurely, the SP will either correct back to OTM on my CC’s, or if I had let the shares get called away I would have had an opportunity for an entry point the next Monday on an early dip, as often happens after a run up in share price. Of course, there are those times when the SP does run away like @ReddyLeaf said, and you don’t get that Monday dip, or any dip at all really. What I tell myself, is that I am not smarter than the options odds.. so I am better off overall to be willing to let the shares get called away, and then buy back in on Monday morning within an hour of open. Just be methodical about it, and not to be emotionally attached to the shares, and the options odds will be on your side in the long run as the options seller. Where you can run into trouble is to hold out on the re-buy, thinking that surely a bigger dip is going to come, and then when it doesn‘t the SP has run away never to return. That is how you can find yourself way out of position and missing out on multiple tens of dollars of SP on the upside.

So in summary, I try to mentally be prepared to let the shares go when I choose the strike on the covered call. This makes it more like a contract with myself.. yes, I am willing to sell these shares at this price, at this time. Its the second guessing and undoing of this bargain with myself, that has cost me the most money in the past.

And personally, to your point, I do like the 15%-20% Delta to sell against.

Finally, to state the obvious, the holy grail of options selling is when you can use TA to be more or less aggressive on your strike price. Easier said than done, of course, but we can all see from history that when TSLA has its big runs, it gets overextended and has to cool off at some point.. this is when you can be more aggressive on the strike to protect against a downside reversal. When we are in the dumps like now, of course, you have to be a little more careful and cautious with choosing the strike. Hope this is helpful.
 
Checking in for an objective take on my plan below in case what I’m seeking to do is dangerous/foolish and if there’s a better way to accomplish the same goal or similar:

Situation
I’m bag-holding 5,800 TSLA shares with a CB of around $309. Didn’t sell when all support began giving way until it was too late. Paid my dues!

Of the 5,800 shares, 1,900 were put to me recently at CB of $242 (12/16 266.66 CSP gone rouge) which added about $460k to my margin balance.

For various reasons I cannot sell shares at current prices and eat the losses. Plus I’m okay waiting this out even if it’s a year or two and converting them to a long-term investment and only sell some at new highs whenever they’ll come in order to pay off whatever margin is left (I’ll slowly pay it down with other income). But this means paying TD about $3k/mo interest on the margin, and some $$ for buying occasional garbage puts to protect my margin (and the risk if TSLA breaks below 130 which will put my whole portfolio in danger unless I buy even more puts, but maybe we’ve found a bottom and we’ll see 242 before 100).

Current Plan
Sell Covered Calls on the 5,800 shares while waiting out the famine. Locate 2-3 resistance levels above current share price and choose a weekly strike slightly above that (for instance 12/2 202.50, which is about 15-20 delta; 80-85% chance OTM) and sell 58x contracts (was selling for around $6-8k today), rinse and repeat every week (even scalp/BTC on dips along the way when possible) = around $15k/mo.

-Is this realistic?

-What are some ways you found that works for choosing a strike if you DIDN’T want your shares to be called away but you also want decent premiums/income?

-Would you do the same if you HAD to hold onto the shares? What would you different?

Thanks in advance!

🙏
Can't say I'm an expert but selling 58x cc's each week is a plan that won't work forever (as @Max Plaid pointed out).

If you go into the "safe" strikes (= +20% OTM at least) the premium is so low you'll see it's not worth the risk.

In your situation I would personally sell $310 cc's in chunks (i.e. higher than your cost basis) at expiration dates which give you some premium (JAN2023's would net you $0.27. To get this premium for 12/9 you'd need to sell $225 cc's).

The best advice regarding when to sell cc's is upon inflated IV/SP.
IMO it's better to be patient for multiple days/weeks, awaiting a decently green day (3-4% up at least) before selling cc's. The income lost by not being in the market tends to be lower than the extra premium received 'cause your selling cc's at a local peak.

You could use this last piece of advice for either weekly cc selling or for selling $310cc's some way off. In either case I wouldn't bet the farm (i.e. sell all 58 cc's at once). Better to DCA into it if you ask me.

When I DCA cc's I do something like:
1) sell 10 cc's now on green day;
2) put in a sell order for 5 cc's at double the price of the earlier sold cc's;
3) if #2 triggers, put in a sell order for 2/3 cc's at double that price;
etc

So I get the same premium each time with a lot less cc's on the line. If you were going to sell either way (for example at $310), you might as well squeeze out more premium. If the stock reverses, you get to keep the premium. If it does not reverse, you'll have more premium than if you went all-in at the start.

Not advice of course, but the bottom line is selling cc's against all your shares is bound to fail in the long run (EXCEPT if you sell at strikes you want to sell at, and you don't mind them exercising).
 
pre-market opened pennies *above* yesterday afternoon 13:23 price. Would that be considered an upward resistance/support or just the dump, post tweets and stories?
My casual observation is there is little or no correlation between pre-market and that day’s trading, but I have no data analysis on that. Do you have a different opinion? @Yoona?
 
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My casual observation is there is little or no correlation between pre-market and that day’s trading, but I have no data analysis on that. Do you have a different opinion? @Yoona?
About pre-market in general, no, I don't. Today's pre-market open contrast to yesterday afternoon action, may simply be coincidental that the alignment is at the last blip before the slide.
 
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My casual observation is there is little or no correlation between pre-market and that day’s trading, but I have no data analysis on that. Do you have a different opinion? @Yoona?
Premarket is such low volume that it's easy to reverse. Only when premarket has noticably higher volume I would see it as indicative for the trend of the day.
 
Checking in for an objective take on my plan below in case what I’m seeking to do is dangerous/foolish and if there’s a better way to accomplish the same goal or similar:

Situation
I’m bag-holding 5,800 TSLA shares with a CB of around $309. Didn’t sell when all support began giving way until it was too late. Paid my dues!

Of the 5,800 shares, 1,900 were put to me recently at CB of $242 (12/16 266.66 CSP gone rouge) which added about $460k to my margin balance.

For various reasons I cannot sell shares at current prices and eat the losses. Plus I’m okay waiting this out even if it’s a year or two and converting them to a long-term investment and only sell some at new highs whenever they’ll come in order to pay off whatever margin is left (I’ll slowly pay it down with other income). But this means paying TD about $3k/mo interest on the margin, and some $$ for buying occasional garbage puts to protect my margin (and the risk if TSLA breaks below 130 which will put my whole portfolio in danger unless I buy even more puts, but maybe we’ve found a bottom and we’ll see 242 before 100).

Current Plan
Sell Covered Calls on the 5,800 shares while waiting out the famine. Locate 2-3 resistance levels above current share price and choose a weekly strike slightly above that (for instance 12/2 202.50, which is about 15-20 delta; 80-85% chance OTM) and sell 58x contracts (was selling for around $6-8k today), rinse and repeat every week (even scalp/BTC on dips along the way when possible) = around $15k/mo.

-Is this realistic?

-What are some ways you found that works for choosing a strike if you DIDN’T want your shares to be called away but you also want decent premiums/income?

-Would you do the same if you HAD to hold onto the shares? What would you different?

Thanks in advance!

🙏

In downturns like this I try to sell agressive CCs only when approaching a certain resistance level and after a big bump in the SP. At least this way you have regression to the mean on your side and day traders and profit takers helping you.
However, the big problem will arrive when all the shorts will have to cover and TSLA will have an epic gamma squeeze on the way up to +100% in 1-2 months.

This will be savage for CCs sellers.
 
Here are again all the times TSLA got rejected by the hourly 200 EMA and retraced at least 50%. Wouldn't you say these lows were pretty scary, end-of-the-world type in their own right? I was there so I know. Wouldn't you think to yourself "hmmm, if we bounce from this abyss, we'll never see these prices again" just like you're thinking now? You would and you would be wrong every time.

View attachment 878064
Here are 2 more: the June 2019 low and COVID crash low
View attachment 878065
So it's not my opinion that once we've topped out initially, the stock will retrace at least 50%. If it tops out at 200, it will go back to at least 183. There's no upward pressure afterward to worry about until the retracement is complete. At 183 with 2-3 DTE, you can close your 195C's for pennies.

In all of these examples, only once did TSLA not get rejected by the hourly 200 EMA and that's after the June 2019 low but it still retraced 50% from the top. Probabilities say 200 as the top and 183 as minimum retracement is a safe bet.

The good thing about this rising wedge is the slope is extremely steep. For TSLA to stay within it today, we're talking about another $10 day so we should know pretty quickly if it's set up to do something like that. I'll try and keep everyone updated. I've never seen a true break upward from a rising wedge.

View attachment 878067
Is there some significance to ~$186.34 to $186.38? We held there yesterday through a few waves and today peaked there as of 10:51am. Maybe this is nothing...
 
In downturns like this I try to sell agressive CCs only when approaching a certain resistance level and after a big bump in the SP. At least this way you have regression to the mean on your side and day traders and profit takers helping you.
However, the big problem will arrive when all the shorts will have to cover and TSLA will have an epic gamma squeeze on the way up to +100% in 1-2 months.

This will be savage for CCs sellers.
True! This is why I’m thinking selling weeklies since it’s just 4-5 days in duration and less chance of a massive run past 2-3 major resistances (like 202.50 for this Friday).
 
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In downturns like this I try to sell agressive CCs only when approaching a certain resistance level and after a big bump in the SP. At least this way you have regression to the mean on your side and day traders and profit takers helping you.
However, the big problem will arrive when all the shorts will have to cover and TSLA will have an epic gamma squeeze on the way up to +100% in 1-2 months.

This will be savage for CCs sellers.
Yep, that's what I've been doing as well and that is why I only bet about 5% of shares a week for CCs. Not sure when this is going to hit, but it will. I've guessed wrong for a few quarters and bought calls (losing lottery tickets as it turns out) and I feel like Q4 is going to be massive, but that doesn't mean the SP will reflect that.
 
Is there some significance to ~$186.34 to $186.38? We held there yesterday through a few waves and today peaked there as of 10:51am. Maybe this is nothing...
I'd guess this is a push point to get back to maxpain for the week. Currently at $182.50

Gee, look where we are right now!

 
True! This is why I’m thinking selling weeklies since it’s just 4-5 days in duration and less chance of a massive run past 2-3 major resistances (like 202.50 for this Friday).
with a chance of TSLA buyback (black swan), i ALWAYS have a trailing stop BTC order
  • protect gains (small is better than none)
  • reduce danger of catastrophic loss
  • automated close in case of large macro move and i am away
  • may leave money on table, but opportunity loss is not really money lost
 
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Is there some significance to ~$186.34 to $186.38? We held there yesterday through a few waves and today peaked there as of 10:51am. Maybe this is nothing...
I don't think it has any significance. Since we're trading in a tight range, I guess at any moment you can draw some fib level or some MA/EMA where 186 is. I know 187.5 is significance since it's the weekly 200 EMA. We're officially rejected from the upper edge of the falling wedge. This is fine as first attempt often fails. Also broke down from a bigger rising wedge, retested, and failed so I think those of you holding ITM CC's can breathe now.

Minimum target for this pull back is 177 but can go as low as 172. Actually I'd much prefer it to go to 172 to partly fill the bull gap below but I'll keep an open mind.
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