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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Wow. Quite a lot of feelings running through the thread this evening! And yet.....what has really changed in 3 weeks? Other than TSLA getting shoved down 25%.
Let's cool our jets and take a look at things from a @BornToFly altitude. We are 30% off ATH and 20hrs from the first moment where TSLA can actually be measured by it's actual(and absurd) profits. And into this environment we're going to........sell?
Do we think perhaps these thoughts are being put in our heads by those who covet our delicious and life-giving shares?
A lot of us got slightly more aggressive with BPS going into earnings and are a bit stuck. I've zigged and they zagged, I'm not about to zag just so they can then zig.
Let's cool our jets and take a look at things from a @BornToFly altitude. We are 30% off ATH and 20hrs from the first moment where TSLA can actually be measured by it's actual(and absurd) profits. And into this environment we're going to........sell?
Do we think perhaps these thoughts are being put in our heads by those who covet our delicious and life-giving shares?
A lot of us got slightly more aggressive with BPS going into earnings and are a bit stuck. I've zigged and they zagged, I'm not about to zag just so they can then zig.
I stayed out of options until 2/18 when I start to have expires
BPS 10x 950/700 2/18.
STO 10x calls @$1k for 2/18 and 3/18, $1050 is roughly break even.
I nearly bet the farm when it was hitting $850 by STOing more calls, but risking $100k in calls was enough for me.
This macro crap sucks, but if we finish 2/18 at least at $950 then I'll make the full premium for the BPS and I can feel the full pain of the calls expiring worthless as the BPS will have paid for them.
BPS 10x 950/700 2/18.
STO 10x calls @$1k for 2/18 and 3/18, $1050 is roughly break even.
I nearly bet the farm when it was hitting $850 by STOing more calls, but risking $100k in calls was enough for me.
This macro crap sucks, but if we finish 2/18 at least at $950 then I'll make the full premium for the BPS and I can feel the full pain of the calls expiring worthless as the BPS will have paid for them.
Well, right now we have a blend of
Jun 22 800 calls
Jan 23 500 calls
Jun 23 500 calls
Shares
Cash
Most of which (other than shares) were acquired last week or before. Shares -> leaps on the last drop (too soon apparently).
Could ride things out (though dumping the Jun 800s on the next upswing may be prudent), but emotions are wearing thin. Of course, just because doing nothing was not the most profitable choice before doesn't mean it isn't now.
I would try to avoid changing strategies based on emotions. We are at recent lows with a great year on deck, so this might not be the best time to cap upside. Reducing leverage makes sense, especially if thinking the stock will be flat for the next year.
I've been watching this guys nightly pre-market videos on youtube the last 2 weeks -- The Maverick of Wall Street. He has a pretty interesting and entertaining recap of the market and predictions for the next day. Lots of info on the markets and macros, and in the Charts section he always covers AAPL and TSLA in a little detail.
For tomorrow he is saying it all depends on Powell's statement (at 230pm EST I think). If it pleases the market, TSLA will shoot higher after hours...but if his mood is gloomy, TLSA will drop no matter what the earning report is. My opinion of The Maverick from watching his show is that he doesn't know that much about Tesla in detail, and has a slightly negative bias against it.
(TSLA chart info at about 51:00)
For tomorrow he is saying it all depends on Powell's statement (at 230pm EST I think). If it pleases the market, TSLA will shoot higher after hours...but if his mood is gloomy, TLSA will drop no matter what the earning report is. My opinion of The Maverick from watching his show is that he doesn't know that much about Tesla in detail, and has a slightly negative bias against it.
(TSLA chart info at about 51:00)
Man, I made the mistake of watching "Nightly News." Russia.... Inflation.... Supply chain... Cargo ships waiting weeks to dock.... You listen to that and can easily imagine the NASDAQ dropping 20%, pulling TSLA down with it. Now I'm more worried about waiting and might roll everything to December and just be done. I can roll to April with a small credit, putting everything at 1050/850. I just don't know if the SP will be 1000 or 700 in April. Will two new factories opening soon be enough to fight the Feb-April drop of the last THREE years, and possibly a bad macro environment? This sucks. I'm feeling a little down here folks.... 
P.S. - Sorry to be a downer now TalkingMule
P.S. - Sorry to be a downer now TalkingMule
$700 SP . . . that is brutal, now I understand why you are talking rolling to December.Man, I made the mistake of watching "Nightly News." Russia.... Inflation.... Supply chain... Cargo ships waiting weeks to dock.... You listen to that and can easily imagine the NASDAQ dropping 20%, pulling TSLA down with it. Now I'm more worried about waiting and might roll everything to December and just be done. I can roll to April with a small credit, putting everything at 1050/850. I just don't know if the SP will be 1000 or 700 in April. Will two new factories opening soon be enough to fight the Feb-April drop of the last THREE years, and possibly a bad macro environment? This sucks. I'm feeling a little down here folks....
P.S. - Sorry to be a downer now TalkingMule
I am hoping there will at least be a relief rally (even if short-lived) that will bail out my -1050p/+780ps for 4 Feb 22
ChefBoyardee
Member
Agree about sentiment here being overly nervous. We have so many ways to avoid margin calls, and with Tesla growing as fast as it is, higher interest rates won’t drop the stock for very long. My not-advice is just roll up and far out, as needed. How far up, how far out, and how much all depends on how much margin you need to unlock. It takes the short term out of the equation and gives a nice breather.
Take a look at rolling to something like 1200/1180 for Jan 2023, just to see how much margin you can free up if you really have to (it’s a lot)
Ex: I have previously-rolled positions for March, April, and Sept. Then last Friday I rolled a few from March to Sept to free up some margin for cushion. Easy peasy.
I’m nervous too, don’t get me wrong, (maybe this post is also a bit of self talk) but in a few months I’m sure we’ll all be back to selling too-risky BPS and feeling giddy about the SP
Take a look at rolling to something like 1200/1180 for Jan 2023, just to see how much margin you can free up if you really have to (it’s a lot)
Ex: I have previously-rolled positions for March, April, and Sept. Then last Friday I rolled a few from March to Sept to free up some margin for cushion. Easy peasy.
I’m nervous too, don’t get me wrong, (maybe this post is also a bit of self talk) but in a few months I’m sure we’ll all be back to selling too-risky BPS and feeling giddy about the SP
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
You know what makes me optimistic? The fact that everyone's nervous.
When we're all optimistic, that's when they drop the hammer.
We've never had a clearer pathway to a quick +25% and no one's even buying YOLOs! That is a pure bullish TMC indicator.
Good night all! By this time tomorrow we'll all be taking golden showers!
When we're all optimistic, that's when they drop the hammer.
We've never had a clearer pathway to a quick +25% and no one's even buying YOLOs! That is a pure bullish TMC indicator.
Good night all! By this time tomorrow we'll all be taking golden showers!
Sounds like you’re well diversified, except now you need puts like you are proposing. I would recommend selling weekly puts just below the highest put wall. This week is a little crazy, but 895s are paying $35. MaxPain is showing at $1005, but that’s normally a risky level, though this week’s earnings are a wildcard. You should be able to clear $10/wk ($500+/yr) fairly easily, and your cash backing required is much less than when you sell p1300s. This week p810s are still paying $10. Also, this allows you to roll and recover if things go south (and they will). Just make sure to have enough free cash available to roll, assuming a $100 SP dump.
I’m considering waiting until mid-week before I sell options, just to have a safer target, but mostly I’ve been rolling out on Thursday to the following Friday. Still undecided, but it’s been a rough two weeks. I also find that selling 1:1 CCs and CSPs as a strangle or straddle helps to alleviate some of my nervousness. With well-chosen and wide enough spread, they often both expire worthless. For 1/14, I nailed it dead on, selling p1050s and c1050s, closing within pennies. This week, well, I’m stuck with p1075s and p1100s, so really waiting on that SP rocket launch.
As a counterpoint I took a look at the last time Russia fought Ukraine. Feb 2014 was the start according to Wikipedia. Taking a look at the charts 2014 ended with he SPY positive. However in 2015 there were two downturns in the SPYMan, I made the mistake of watching "Nightly News." Russia.... Inflation.... Supply chain... Cargo ships waiting weeks to dock.... You listen to that and can easily imagine the NASDAQ dropping 20%, pulling TSLA down with it. Now I'm more worried about waiting and might roll everything to December and just be done. I can roll to April with a small credit, putting everything at 1050/850. I just don't know if the SP will be 1000 or 700 in April. Will two new factories opening soon be enough to fight the Feb-April drop of the last THREE years, and possibly a bad macro environment? This sucks. I'm feeling a little down here folks....
P.S. - Sorry to be a downer now TalkingMule
2015 I couldn't remember exactly what was the cause of the downturns and doing some googling I came across this Forbes article: are we repeating 2015 and 2016 published Feb 2020. The article is worth a read.
2015 we saw industrial production negative over the last 12 months, retail growth slowed, corporate earnings decreased, and global economies like China were reporting slowing growth. Businesses were also slowing their investments.
Compare and contrast 2022 with 2015 and I'm less worried. I also don't think the fed will QT so much as to cause a recession. If we are faced with that they know all they need to do is open up the spigot.
Hope this helps
Love the sentiment. I’ll pass on the golden shower.
Don’t let this market get you down! There are way too many positive catalysts coming. Sure, if you want to let things cool down, roll out several months.Man, I made the mistake of watching "Nightly News." Russia.... Inflation.... Supply chain... Cargo ships waiting weeks to dock.... You listen to that and can easily imagine the NASDAQ dropping 20%, pulling TSLA down with it. Now I'm more worried about waiting and might roll everything to December and just be done. I can roll to April with a small credit, putting everything at 1050/850. I just don't know if the SP will be 1000 or 700 in April. Will two new factories opening soon be enough to fight the Feb-April drop of the last THREE years, and possibly a bad macro environment? This sucks. I'm feeling a little down here folks....
P.S. - Sorry to be a downer now TalkingMule
But I would be absolutely shocked if TSLA is not trading much higher in a couple of months.
Good times are right around the corner; just got to hang in there. And don’t let the media mess with you. Only thing that matters to them are eyeballs. Scary/negative headlines/stories are low hanging fruit. Lazy but effective.
Crazy talk here. Flat stock. Hell no!
Nightly news is just for entertainment
I only started buying calls this month after only having stock since’10. Kinda expect >$1200 still by Friday
Maybe Monday
Nightly news is just for entertainment
I only started buying calls this month after only having stock since’10. Kinda expect >$1200 still by Friday
Maybe Monday 
jeewee3000
Active Member
You mean you BTO 10x calls @1k right? Not STO?
Somebody please talk me out of selling a truckload of "I dare you" 2DTE 1100 CCs if they hit $10 this morning. I know the adage about pennies and steamrollers, and I know the report today will be phenomenal, but we're talking about a lot more than pennies and I still don't see them letting us breach 1100 by Friday.
16% OTM if we open at $950 idk I will not bet my entire portfolio even with all the negativity around here. I might join you and do a few but I have a bunch of $1150's.
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