Yikes! For CC expiring sake, glad to see c190 trim some, c180 and c185 increased. The put interest shifted left by adding to p160-p175, trimmed some at p180 ... are the high 160's evident? 172 bottom, where are you ???
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Wow, looks like they’re dumping in the morning on open and then buying back end of day. Kills any chance to gain upward momentum.
Classic. This pattern often showed up in the 2019 era if I recall correctly.
Curious trading of Dec16th DITM puts today that makes no sense to me. Over 30,000 p300s traded, but only 3200 open interest.
How is this even possible? Furthermore, these are so far out, there’s ZERO time value. See below graph for other similar high puts traded. Why would anyone BUY +p300s for $126 unless they think the SP will drop and want a guaranteed place to put shares? This would be a highly inefficient use of capital (unless MMs naked shorts). These cannot be SOLD -p300s because 1) there were 1/10 as many open and 2) they have no time value and would immediately be bought back (as we’ve seen for other DITM puts). I had to confirm the data directly on the Nasdaq site because I thought maybe the MaxPain site was erroneous. I posted some similar observations awhile back, so maybe this is a routine MO. Edit: found my previous 11/22 post: Here. Perhaps this is actually good news, since 11/22 was coincidentally the day the SP hit $166. Will we rally tomorrow because of naked short covering? Calling all traders: @BornToFly @Yoona
@Chenkers @Max Plaid @OrthoSurg @dl003 @juanmedina @adiggs @Jim Holder
So is this evidence of naked shorting or other shenanigans? @Artful Dodger @Papafox thoughts?
How is this even possible? Furthermore, these are so far out, there’s ZERO time value. See below graph for other similar high puts traded. Why would anyone BUY +p300s for $126 unless they think the SP will drop and want a guaranteed place to put shares? This would be a highly inefficient use of capital (unless MMs naked shorts). These cannot be SOLD -p300s because 1) there were 1/10 as many open and 2) they have no time value and would immediately be bought back (as we’ve seen for other DITM puts). I had to confirm the data directly on the Nasdaq site because I thought maybe the MaxPain site was erroneous. I posted some similar observations awhile back, so maybe this is a routine MO. Edit: found my previous 11/22 post: Here. Perhaps this is actually good news, since 11/22 was coincidentally the day the SP hit $166. Will we rally tomorrow because of naked short covering? Calling all traders: @BornToFly @Yoona @Chenkers @Max Plaid @OrthoSurg @dl003 @juanmedina @adiggs @Jim Holder
So is this evidence of naked shorting or other shenanigans? @Artful Dodger @Papafox thoughts?
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Curious trading of Dec16th DITM puts today that makes no sense to me. Over 30,000 p300s traded, but only 3200 open interest.
@Chenkers @Max Plaid @OrthoSurg @dl003
So is this evidence of naked shorting or other shenanigans? @Artful Dodger @Papafox thoughts?
View attachment 882575
View attachment 882577
They must have been opened and closed on the same day with that volume and open interest - so they were probably both bought and sold, right?
Would buying these force the MM to delta hedge by selling shares? Maybe easier or more effective somehow than shorting directly?
JSML
Member
Continuing to roll down my Dec 9 short calls. Now I have Dec 9 -c187.5, -c190, -c192.5. I think I am done for this week rolling down unless SP goes below 167.
STO a smallish hedge position Jan 25 -c 480. Received 6.2% of my total equity as premium.
I am having a hard time deciding short calls for next week. The premiums seem too low for the expected CPI volatility. Leaning towards selling 1/2 of my usually weekly short calls at this point.
STO a smallish hedge position Jan 25 -c 480. Received 6.2% of my total equity as premium.
I am having a hard time deciding short calls for next week. The premiums seem too low for the expected CPI volatility. Leaning towards selling 1/2 of my usually weekly short calls at this point.
Curious trading of Dec16th DITM puts today that makes no sense to me. Over 30,000 p300s traded, but only 3200 open interest.
@Chenkers @Max Plaid @OrthoSurg @dl003 @juanmedina @adiggs @Jim Holder
So is this evidence of naked shorting or other shenanigans? @Artful Dodger @Papafox thoughts?
View attachment 882575
View attachment 882577
Also, recall this thread that @Yoona posted here last week, same high volume DITM 12/16 puts:
It seems many tickers had massive ITM put volumes today. Stock Option Volume Report
Almost making me wonder if it's a data issue.
I don't know enough to know about the potential use case for deep ITM puts (long or short) to theorize what could be happening. But it seems like they are all on the 12/16/22 strikes and the 1/20/23 strikes. Possibly related, SpotGamma put out a video with some observations of the market wide trading action the last two days, and speculated that it looked like it could be large fund single stock selling, potentially for tax loss harvesting. Could these be related? Could these positions be some sort of hedging while managing tax loss?
Almost making me wonder if it's a data issue.
I don't know enough to know about the potential use case for deep ITM puts (long or short) to theorize what could be happening. But it seems like they are all on the 12/16/22 strikes and the 1/20/23 strikes. Possibly related, SpotGamma put out a video with some observations of the market wide trading action the last two days, and speculated that it looked like it could be large fund single stock selling, potentially for tax loss harvesting. Could these be related? Could these positions be some sort of hedging while managing tax loss?
It looks promising based on the data in the recent events. Do you have the data for the whole OpEx week performance Mon-Fri or Fri-Fri. Thanks in advance.
Bloomberg repushing China FUD causing the PM dump from +0.5% to -2%
SebastienBonny
Member
Selling CC's now is like going to Vegas and plunder all machines.
Of course this only work until it isn't, so I would stay careful.
Of course this only work until it isn't, so I would stay careful.
Until the bear market is over
I wonder who decides that
Goldman Sachs?
Morgan Stanley?
Every time I closed my CCs for profit I regretted not selling new ones ATM.
Seems like we have 3 green days then 10 red days. Rinse and repeat
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In the absence of communication by Tesla, many investors are going to assume the worst. Tesla could release a two sentence explanation that would reverse the 10% plunge this week. But we may have to wait until the next P&D report a month from now to get those answers.
How are you guy feeling about Q4? There is no immediate Tesla catalyst at all other than P&D. Retail has run out of ammo and doesn't have the power to turn this ship around. If Q4 doesn't print we are royally screwed IMO. You can tell that many long time members in this forum are starting to panic including myself. I really want to see the Q4 result before I make any rash decisions. Just venting here. I sold a few $210's for next week yesterday.
Pretty bad. I'll tell you what, they may be smart at engineering and manufacturing but they are dumb as bricks when it comes to investor relations. If the demand concerns are true and Q4 is a miss you may as well just sell premarket because nothing will save this stock from plumetting. O and Elon will probably pump it a bit during the earnings call then sell some more shares a week later.
Not financial advice.
jeewee3000
Active Member
I'm already of the mindset that we'll only get clear cut information on the next earnings call. If Q4 is as good as Elon thought it would be, a bottom for the stock should be formed by then.
The biggest thing to look for will be if Elon/Zach are easing demand concerns or not. If they backpedal in any way, the market won't be happy.
In other words, it would be great if at the ER:
- Tesla gives clear information regarding factory output (has China produced less or not, this is now assumed but still not 100% proven);
- if less production, why? Could be supply chain issues that have nothing to do with Tesla, and then it is only wise to cut running costs as much as possible to increase margin.
- Zach explains pricing and incentives per continent, and the reasons behind it.
Either way, I think only patience will save us. Even if China has lower demand right now it could be linked to the state of the Chinese economy as of late. Time will tell.
I have $195 and $200 12/16 CC to either hold until expiration, or close by 12/12 to be out before the inflation report, and thinking to stay out for the holidays and through the 1/2 P&D. Have made double my CC income target in the past month, 8/1-12/7 almost even with rolls and DITM rescues, 1/1-7/1 was excellent. Just one data point.
The poor results 8/1-10/15 led to a change in strike price selection from close to ATM to +10%OTM, and that has worked pretty well. Of course, it would during a downtrend, but there has been some volatility to navigate.
Haven’t touched my long shares in years, other than to sell half and buy LEAPs (admittedly not the best timing). Overall, HODL!
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