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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
But I have to admit, this time, today Yes, even against the S&P and Nasdaq Falling TSLA rises on a miss, where sustaining a 1.8 mn guideline is really no fundamental news (although I doubted it for this year just a few hours ago).Well all the times Tesla beat and SP dumped, hw about the converse for once...?
At least in case of Tesla this is a unique occurance .
Odd (fishy even?)
(still holding on to -C250 though)
Treasury yields spiking again too.
I can think of two reasons:
What if is there is a sudden fed pivot?
I want to see if we can clear 255. TSLA in general looks pretty strong, maybe the big boys are anticipating CT launch here in the next couple of weeks and that could be the sell the news event?
There cant be a Fed pivot until Nov FOMC. CPI trends lately have been up, not down. We're up a creek without paddles for another month.
CT delivery is cool and all, but is it enough for big bois to risk getting left holding the bag left by bigger bois? ER is the 800 lb gorilla and CT is just a distraction.
What do you think the Jonas upgrade and the spike to 279 was for if not liquidity? They got out, all of them. Are they going to get back in the mud to play for chump changes? Maybe. Maybe not.
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From what I have gathered Fed pivots precipitate market drops more often than not. The idea is that a pivot means the economy is weakening and the market likes to front run.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Dead cat bounce. Even if Tesla hit 1.8m there going be more price cut to fuel demand.
Q3 and Q4 earning will not look too hot.
Q3 and Q4 earning will not look too hot.
Chinese Model 3 highland are higher priced than the current one. They will move some serious volume for Q4.
That’s a logical question, but as far as back I can remember, most stocks, and especially TSLA almost always rise in to ER - I don’t know if this is a function of shorts choosing to wait till the ER is out to short or what all other factors play in to this. Just a general observation.
This is false. A lot of stocks drop all the way going into ER. See NKE and FDX for fresh examples.
TSLA can rise into ER once there's no more meat on the bone for shorts. Is this it? Or is it going to be 220 before the rise?
Exactly. The low is usually after the fed pivots.
I should have been more specific- I was mostly speaking from my experience with Tesla and other mega cap tech stocks - Since 2018, I have played an earnings run up trade (buy the stock about 2 weeks or less before ER date and sell just before ER), and it almost always worked.
In any case, I hope your prediction comes true so I can buy more TSLA in the 230s.
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bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
I don't think it's going to be this Q, but one Q and pretty soon, Energy is going to be a big surprise. As of last Q it was already ~5% of Tesla's revenue, and margins were pushing 20%.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
ASP has declined since original 1.8M guidance so I would think EPS would follow.
Some folks expect stuff like energy to magically save earnings here, but margin on storage was similar to auto last quarter (and they've cut prices on storage in recent months too)
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