SHORT-LIVED THREAD: Your best SP Guess After TSLA's "Big Week"

[techmaven]

$232

 

[DriverOne]

$190. Investors see nothing to ignite stock until the summer - and summer is high risk, and investors hate risk.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

266.10
It is known.

 

[GoTslaGo]

213.89

212.87 is current 200 MA. Suspect Nov 2 will be crossing 200 MA (which will change slightly as the price increases).

 

[stealthology]

I find this very difficult, lots of unknowns in all 3 events. Given how important and determined Musk sounded (particularly on the HW2 presser), my guess is $232.37. Would love to be wrong on the upside.

 

[vgrinshpun]

$236

 

[Yggdrasill]

$224.9

I think the merger will continue to be a bit of a wet blanket. Once the merger goes through I think Tesla will start to climb, slowly. Maybe end the year at $260.

 

[Turing]

$236

What is your final guesstimate for ZEV revenue in Q3?

 

[dennis]

$231.50

 

[Johan]

$212.34

 

[vgrinshpun]

What is your final guesstimate for ZEV revenue in Q3?

I conservatively estimated Q3 ZEV contribution to the bottom line to be $95.6MM - $159.3MM here.

EDIT: this is based on California ZEV sales only. I spot checked other states, but found data (posted on-line) in NY only, where Tesla sold 850 credits in the latest reporting period, which was the same as in California.

 

[MitchJi]

I conservatively estimated Q3 ZEV contribution to the bottom line to be $95.6MM - $159.3MM here.

EDIT: this is based on California ZEV sales only. I spot checked other states, but found data (posted on-line) in NY only, where Tesla sold 850 credits in the latest reporting period, which was the same as in California.

So that amount should be about 2x with only NY added in?!

 

[AlMc]

$215

$204.97

$212.34

Taking the *average*of three people whom I usually agree with: $210.33

 

[vgrinshpun]

So that amount should be about 2x with only NY added in?!

No, California ZEV sold were 80,227, while NY only 850.

EDIT: Reporting period was the same, not the quantity of ZEVs sold

 

[SBenson]

Don't know magnitudes but I think stock will rise after hours today. But will fall after Nov 1 financial discussion.

 

[EinSV]

No, California ZEV sold were 80,227, while NY only 850.

EDIT: Reporting period was the same, not the quantity of ZEVs sold

ER discussion is over here:

2016 Third quarter results discussion

 

[austinEV]

Got to love the guesses with 5 significant digits

 

[Mario Kadastik]

$217.14

 

[austinEV]

220.000001

 

[EinSV]

220.000001

I see you factored in the Bob Lutz comments this morning.