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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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ShortSlaver
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Not likely. When a stock drops nearly 25% in a few days (on no negative news), there would need to be something pretty magical to give it a serious boost upwards. The best we can hope for right now is for it to find some solid support and stop sinking parabolically. Perhaps some market dynamics are setting back up to drive it up and a little good news could spark it - but don't count on it.
Perhaps a huge reason why it dropped today was because of the Texas Legislation decision?
ShortSlaver
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I'm sure in part. That and people hitting loss limits.
Autodata estimates just came out and haven't really affected the stock. 7,506 Model S's YTD so far, 1,425 in May. I would think this is a pretty good number over 5 months. A simple extrapolation is over 18,000 Model S's in the USA alone. Plus whatever is being delivered overseas puts it well over 21,000 MS's sold. In addition, I think the number would be closer to 19,000 in the USA on the year, allowing for up to 24,000 worldwide this year potentially.
The fact that data didn't crash the stock more is a positive I think.
On occasion, an earlier time trade reports late and makes it look like a spike. Sometimes they'll correct the time of the trade to align it with its actual time, sometimes not
This is second hand information, so I'd put it in the classification of rumor as I haven't been able to directly substantiate it, but there is talk that what happened with the big run-up last week to $114 or so was that two hedge funds were taken down by the short squeeze and they were forced to close out their entire short position in Tesla. If you look at the chart, the theory kind of fits, with the margin calls and forced closing of the positions starting towards the end of the day on the 28th and finishing out the morning of the 29th.
If that's the case, it does illustrate how much short covering could push up the stock quickly, but it also demonstrates how many people are ready to dump the stock if there is a bigger run-up in the short-term.
If that's the case, it does illustrate how much short covering could push up the stock quickly, but it also demonstrates how many people are ready to dump the stock if there is a bigger run-up in the short-term.
ShortSlaver
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40 minutes left in the trading day and I suspect it could get messy fast here. The market is in overreaction right now I think.
There's a chance that some are just waiting to find a bottom to buy in.. and with 30 minutes to go they'll just go in now maybe
moltenfire
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moltenfire
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1425*3=4275/quarter; but we're expecting 21,000/year or 5250/quarter so that's not good news, is it?
Well, 1425x12=17,100. Not that 1425 is accurate or that one month of a fast growing company is valid for extrapolating out 12 months...
That 1,425 data is for US car sales only. You have to remember in May there was still a transition period for ramp up.
They are sending out cars to Europe and elsewhere from July onwards so total can still beat 21000 EOY
Actually that number is pretty good. I believe guidance for North American deliveries was that it would settle down into the 10,000 to 15,000 unit range and total deliveries were guided at 21,000 cars for 2013.
When Europe and Asia come online later this year, it looks like Tesla has provided a lowball number that they should have no trouble hurdling over. It fits inline with Elon's off the cuff comment in the Supercharger conference call that current North American reservations were around 19,000 cars a year. If that's so, the limitation this year is going to be how fast the factory can pump out cars and then in 2014 it will probably be the case where Tesla ramps up production by ramping up the 2nd shift and maybe adding a 3rd shift if the demand warrants it. Sounds like good news to me!
When Europe and Asia come online later this year, it looks like Tesla has provided a lowball number that they should have no trouble hurdling over. It fits inline with Elon's off the cuff comment in the Supercharger conference call that current North American reservations were around 19,000 cars a year. If that's so, the limitation this year is going to be how fast the factory can pump out cars and then in 2014 it will probably be the case where Tesla ramps up production by ramping up the 2nd shift and maybe adding a 3rd shift if the demand warrants it. Sounds like good news to me!
Who makes this stuff up? 1,425 doesn't make any sense and certainly doesn't correspond with the VIN's we see being issued. I found a VIN 9440-series with delivery around April 26th, confirmed by others in that same time period, and now a VIN 12850-series with delivery expected around June 24th. That is 1700 per month, or 5100 per quarter. In line with guidance.
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