Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[brianstorms]

Well, this might be a bit overconfident ;-)

Elon stated the availability of enough battery cells as one of the biggest challenges in the future. It sounded to me as if manufactures are going to hit their maximum capacities soon. I'm wondering how quickly Tesla could scale up not taking internal limitations into consideration. Are they able to buy cells for e.g. 40k cars/year today?

I see an analogy between the rise of LCD panels in the late 1990s-early 2000s and the rise of car batteries. The demand for LCDs started going bonkers thanks to companies like Apple, NEC, and ViewSonic. Japan and Korea responded by investing billions in new fab facilities that could pump out ever more, and ever larger, LCD panels. Demand kept growing. More fabs were built. On and on, and now the world is basically mostly LCD.

With batteries, we're in an early phase, but we're experiencing the same "good problem" -- demand is growing. This has to be waking up Japan/Korea/China in terms of battery supply. The continued demand that Tesla is placing on those suppliers is going to give them the confidence to invest in next-gen batteries with more capacity (just like LCD sizes have grown). It doesn't happen overnight (fabs took years to build and bring online, and we keep hearing Elon say it's gonna be a few more years still until we see a major boost in batteries).

I think this is one reason why Elon keeps also saying he welcomes more competition entering the EV market, even cars that are range-competitive with the Model S. Because the size of the potential market is bigger than even Tesla could address. BUT, the more competition, the more demand for batteries, and the sooner the battery-makers will come out with bigger, faster, cheaper batteries.

So it's a very good cycle, and we've been here before in other areas of tech.

 

[mitch672]

+1 brianstorms. The other reason Elon would like competition? It proves a valid market exists for the product, it validates that people want to buy long range EVs. This would truly set Tesla as a "first mover" in the field of the long range, high quality EV.

 

[Curt Renz]

Nasdaq estimates that Tesla Motors will report earnings on July 24. Other sources have been guessing July 22, but they are usually referring to the Monday that begins the week during which the report is likely. None of this is official. In April the company officially announced the earnings report date fifteen days in advance. In February the announcement was made nine days in advance as there was a minor problem that caused a delay in settling on a date. Both of those earnings reports were released on Wednesdays. Since an official announcement has not yet been made this month, it would not surprise me if the earnings report does not arrive next week. Getting the report in during the first month of a new quarter indicates confidence that’s appreciated by investors, especially money managers. Relatively new companies tend to take longer to assemble the data, as has been the case with Tesla in the past. That’s one of those efficiencies as with car production that develop with maturity. My bet is on Wednesday, July 31.

 

[DaveT]

I think it's highly unlikely that Tesla goes from 3000 in the entire company to 3000 in just the factory in just 6 months... all while trying to grow gross margin as one of their major focuses.

So, it looks like I was wrong. I just heard back from a Tesla rep from HQ and the person says the numbers that Elon was quoted in the Bloomberg article were correct (3000 factory employees, 2000 in assembly)

At the factory tour I took over the weekend, the tour rep estimated 1500-2000 employees at the factory (inc. delivery/engineers) but the Tesla rep from HQ says the tour rep has outdated numbers.

Seems like Tesla is growing like crazy. At this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla ended the year with over 5000 employees across the company (up 66% from end of 2012).

 

[uselesslogin]

Nasdaq estimates that Tesla Motors will report earnings on July 24. Other sources have been guessing July 22, but they are usually referring to the Monday that begins the week during which the report is likely. None of this is official. In April the company officially announced the earnings report date fifteen days in advance. In February the announcement was made nine days in advance as there was a minor problem that caused a delay in settling on a date. Both of those earnings reports were released on Wednesdays. Since an official announcement has not yet been made this month, it would not surprise me if the earnings report does not arrive next week. Getting the report in during the first month of a new quarter indicates confidence that’s appreciated by investors, especially money managers. Relatively new companies tend to take longer to assemble the data, as has been the case with Tesla in the past. That’s one of those efficiencies as with car production that develop with maturity. My bet is on Wednesday, July 31.

The estimates are only based on when they reported last year. Based on recent timing I would say August 7th. Also, Elon said he would release a draft of his hyperloop idea on 8/12 so presumably he would want earnings over with. That means we can expect an announcement next week.

 

[clmason]

The estimates are only based on when they reported last year. Based on recent timing I would say August 7th. Also, Elon said he would release a draft of his hyperloop idea on 8/12 so presumably he would want earnings over with. That means we can expect an announcement next week.

I seem to recall Elon saying he would not publish about hyperloop until Tesla was profitable. Or did he say successful? A good sign for earnings whenever it happen.

 

[aznt1217]

I seem to recall Elon saying he would not publish about hyperloop until Tesla was profitable. Or did he say successful? A good sign for earnings whenever it happen.

He said profitable and until after battery swap announcement.

 

[FredTMC]

He said profitable and until after battery swap announcement.

Nice. Do you recall which event he said that it? Supercharger expansion call?

 

[clmason]

Nice. Do you recall which event he said that it? Supercharger expansion call?

45 minutes into the Kahn Academy interivew Elon says, "Although I did say that once tesla was profitable I would talk more about it". However that was prior to q1 earnings. Some other interview he does say "publish info after tesla is profitable" , not sure which.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I thought Elon said he wouldn't publish anything on the hyperloop until Tesla was profitable for 2 quarters? I'm almost positive he also said in some interview that Tesla would be profitable every quarter this year.

 

[aznt1217]

Nice. Do you recall which event he said that it? Supercharger expansion call?

Multiple places, but he clearly states it at D11 with Walt Mossberg and Kara Swisher

 

[uselesslogin]

I thought Elon said he wouldn't publish anything on the hyperloop until Tesla was profitable for 2 quarters? I'm almost positive he also said in some interview that Tesla would be profitable every quarter this year.

He probably said cash flow positive so don't get too excited. Not that cash flow positive isn't essentially being profitable.

 

[maekuz]

O ye, of little faith: http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Tesla+%28TSLA%29+Stock+Worth+%24113+in+Best+Scenario%2C+%2458+in+Worst+-+Goldman+Sachs/8503031.html

 

[twinklejet]

Why is it 125 in pre market? any ideas

 

[JRP3]

Profit taking.

 

[maekuz]

Why is it 125 in pre market? any ideas

Goldman sees a pt of $84.

 

[aznt1217]

Goldman sees a pt of $84.

Yes, which is why they have quite a few mm in Tesla. Love manipulation and Tesla Tuesdays. I bought in yesterday... so foolish I should've waited.

 

[twinklejet]

So this is a good buying opportunity?

Anyway their bull scenario is $120+ or something...

 

[blakegallagher]

just sold some shares and picked up some august calls ... hope that ends up working out

 

[johnnydop]

You have to expect a major bank to be very conservative when it comes to hyper growth stocks. They would rather have their clients not particpate in a trade, ie not buy at these levels, then to buy here with the possibility of getting burned in the short term. Like aznt1217 said, could be that they want to buy more for themsevles but not at these levels.

Besides its very healthy for the stock to consolidate and form bases before the next leg up.