If Tesla sells 100k cars in 2016, without any Gen III sales whatsoever, it has a target price of $230 at 15% EBITDA and a P/E of 15 with an EPS of about $11.83.
This is just the beginning.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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If Tesla sells 100k cars in 2016, without any Gen III sales whatsoever, it has a target price of $230 at 15% EBITDA and a P/E of 15 with an EPS of about $11.83.
This is just the beginning.
Interesting news about Tesla and self-driving cars: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-enters-race-build-self-010950299.html
If TSLA goes up 5% tomorrow then TSLAopt will have nearly doubled his investment and he can cash out right then. You don't need the stock to reach the strike price to make money.
Prior to Q2 when TSLA was around $120, I bought some Aug. $190s for about $0.33. Then after the Goldman fiasco, I believe that they were trading for about $0.08 or so. A couple of days before Q2 ER, they were trading at around $1. So you could have had a 10-bagger with these. After ER they quickly went down in value since there was only two weeks till expiry.
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Yes!
This is so simple, yet nobody can comprehend this. I have been saying this all along. If Tesla sells 100k vehicles 2 or 3 years from now then we are talking about $10 billion in sales. Facebook has a 10x price/sales ratio and mature companies have 2x price/sales ratios. Give TSLA a conservative 5x price/sales ratio and you have a $400 stock price in 2 years time. Right now TSLA has a 10x price/sales ratio as well.
Sleepy - I have a real hard time not getting ridiculously excited for the long term potential of the company, but seeing people like you agree with my assessment is a little too reassuring, i.e. I want to dump my entire life savings in TSLA, fast forward 5 years, and cash out on a 10 bagger!
Well, you are not going to get a 10 bagger in 5 years, that will require a $200+ million market cap and that might take TSLA more than a decade or never.
There is always the possibility that TSLA goes to $250 by early/mid 2014, then we hit a recession and TSLA ends up at $100 at the beginning of 2016. It is not that easy to make money in the stock market unfortunately.
For TSLA to end up at $400 in about 2 years time, we will definitely need the bull market to continue and that is not a sure thing. I am optimistic for now, but that can change in a matter of months.
I agree! Every time I'm feeling a little unsure about Tesla, I just go read one of sleepyheads posts and am quickly reminded why I am so passionate about this company, and why having so much invested is still the right thing to do :smile:
I'm there with you. I think whenever Tesla is down I need to go read sleepys old posts
That is true but if you know (strongly suspect) that there will be a large run up before an earnings report it makes since to buy OTM calls and sell them right before the report after the run up prior to the November earnings call. I am waiting for a GS like dip or something less drastic to pick some up to complement my near the money long term calls.
I held some through the earnings report as well not appreciating how much IV they would lose due to earnings report being over.
That's because there has not been any short-term movement and won't be till close to earnings and people are getting bored
Would like to hear your opinion about short term movements. Personally, I think we are going to trade within the 163-168 range over the short term (rest of the week) barring some big move announcement, either good or bad. Even if the 20 of 30 day conversion has no real impact I feel there is still some 'wait and see' among many until the magic day comes to see what happens.
After that....well that is more long term
i found the last couple of weeks the hardest to read TSLA intraday movement.
if we look back then it should have been the easiest, buy below 160 sell above 170. the problem is every time we get to those boundaries i'm pretty sure it's going to explode and it never happend.
take yesterday for example, when it passed 168.12 i was sure it's going to get to 170 just later to find out it was false break, nothing technical is working this days with TSLA.
from my knowledge, when a stock is within limit boundaries, usually when that breaks you get a big move but then again, nothing is working with TSLA.
when that happened you can only think that something unnatural is running the stock, maybe it's the note thing(i found it hard to believe) maybe it's something else...
so to your question of what i think about the short term is i have no clue
One thing i would like to point out. Even with the IV on normal trading the JAN $250s were trading around $6-7. Right now with the wind out of the sails it is back down to $3. I wouldnt sell them before the ER but the morning after. that is when your going to get the massive spike. This is exactly what happened to my call in Q2. the best prices came around an hour after opening. In short, buying some $250s right now at $3 a piece could easily see a 200% gain opening after the ER (if the market takes the ER well)
This is my plan with a small play, grab up 10 $250s under $3 and with the IV the morning after the ER hope to get $6-9 for them. Of course i have a larger amount of my Tesla money in better option calls, but this Jan $250s if a fun play that could net a nice little return. Just dont hold them to longer after the ER. like i said within an hour, if not sooner depending on the price action. If Jan $250s keep falling between now and the ER i am going to keep buying them.
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kevin99
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Yes the guy(Richard?) is unlike other pros, very bullish. But he got a story and vision and he has been right a few time at least, the most recent one when tesla pull back to 130 range. There was a video.
It is football season. I think a good trader is like a good quarterback that can see how the play is going to unfold when the ball is thrown, how the ball is going to reach the receiver and how the receiver is going to complete the route. If you take a snapshot right at the moment the ball is thrown, it won't be pretty as the result. The ability to see how things unfold in 2 seconds is what pays them millions of dollar.
And here in the chart， the ability to see how it goes in a week, a month makes the difference. Everything is much harder before it happens, if not impossible to tell.
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