Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[Convert2013]

I think Elon is planning the final cleansing of shorts with 3rd quarter results. After 3rd quarter we will have such a rally that % short will be tiny..

 

[sleepyhead]

If I were a bullish analyst, I would come out with my TSLA piece tomorrow. Strike iron while its hot.

 

[Krugerrand]

Strike iron while its hot.

You've been watching Spartacus again, haven't you? :smile:

 

[austinEV]

Didn't you know. Sleepy is actually Elon's screen name on this forum. :biggrin:

Elon does often look quite sleepy.... it all makes sense.

 

[sleepyhead]

The party continues. The Fed just extending this party for a few more months.

Looks like TSLA didn't get the invitation.

 

[redharel]

i have 100 stocks in my watchlist, 99 are dead green and only TSLA is red
go figure...

tommorow 170 probably

 

[InTheShadows]

Looks to me like the 10 day and 20 day sma lines are touching again. Lets hope it reacts like the last time they touched.

 

[arashlzy]

Looks to me like the 10 day and 20 day sma lines are touching again. Lets hope it reacts like the last time they touched.

That happened on Monday with the pop in the market after news over the weekend. Then the stock simmered back down.
Weak volume today and not much price-movement, good for call/put sellers, should continue like this until some news come out on TSLA to trade on. I hope one of the things on Sleepy's list happens before earnings

 

[Convert2013]

OK, now here is what CAN affect short-term TSLA price. I don't have the full article. Maybe someone can find it before me...

Deutsche bank raises Tesla Price Target from $160 to $200:



http://www.theflyonthewall.com/perm...rice-target-raised-to--from--at-Deutsche-Bank

 

[sleepyhead]

I am buying Dec calls, because I think that Q3 earnings will be very, very good. So either the market will figure this out before ER comes out in early November and the stock will go up, in which case I will either:

1. sell my calls before Q3 report when IV is highest; maybe sell half and let the other half ride out the report; or
2. Sell a higher priced call to create a risk free bull call spread, and let it ride close to expiry. I will definitely do this if TSLA moves up in the very near future.

On the other hand if the market doesn't figure this out and the stock hovers around $160 - $180 immediately before ER, then I will ride the calls naked into earnings since this will give a better chance for a blowout post earnings than if the stock climbs to $190+ before ER.

Of course there is the chance that TSLA goes down and my options become worthless; I am prepared for that too. E.g. if TSLA falls to $130 - $150 before ER, then I will accept my loses on those Dec. 200s and will load up on a bunch of other November calls since the probability of a blowout post earnings will be exceptionally high.

Everybody acts like there aren't any catalysts left for TSLA till next earnings report, but this isn't true. All it takes is for one of the following to happen to spark another rally:

-Deutsche Bank to come out with a new $200 price target to spark a 10%+ rally
-Elon musk might tweet something like "1,000th reservation made in China today"
-The Model X is finalized and first delivery date is announced
-TSLA signs deal with Samsung and can now build 40,000 annually
-Tesla signs deal with BYD to supply batteries
-Tesla signs joint venture deal with JAC to produce cars in China
-Tesla preannounces earnings in early October. E.g. 6,000 cars delivered vs. 5,000 guidance.
-Model S gets best score ever from a reputable European Magazine

On the flip side some negative news may cause a correction, but TSLA is still operating in a channel and this is easy money for the traders. Nobody wants to leave this channel, it doesn't make any sense to leave this channel unless something really bad happens.

I am just playing the odds here, and I think that they are in my favor. I have a plan and I am sticking to it, we will see how it goes from here.

IMO TSLA has to go up prior to earnings. All of this information is public, and even though I don't believe in the efficient market hypothesis, sooner or later the market will figure out that production is ramping up really quickly.

Called it!

Let the games begin...

 

[Sunnyday]

OK, now here is what CAN affect short-term TSLA price. I don't have the full article. Maybe someone can find it before me...

Deutsche bank raises Tesla Price Target from $160 to $200:



http://www.theflyonthewall.com/perm...rice-target-raised-to--from--at-Deutsche-Bank

Here's more from my news feed at Schwab (bold emphasis mine):

Deutsche Bank maintained a Buy rating on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) and raised its price target to $200.00 (from $160.00). Analyst Dan Galves noted progress on margin and thinks demand appears strong.

"Based on conversations with mgmt and monitoring information available on Tesla owners blogs, we believe that the company is on-track to modestly outperform Q3 margin expectations, that demand has continued to grow in the US and Europe (despite substantial option pricing increases in effect as of late July), and that the production rate at Tesla's factory has continued to increase," said Galves.


"As Tesla continues to execute to margin targets and demonstrate strong demand for their product, confidence in the late-decade volume, margin, and earnings estimates that justify upside to the current valuation will likely grow. We believe that this, along with still-high short interest (~22% of Free Float; ~18MM shares, ex convert hedging), provides a good set-up through at least the end of 2013. With better visibility on the metrics that the Street is focused on (margin and demand), we see limited potential for negative catalysts in the near term," he added.

 

[bonaire]

Any concern that the bank bought some of those bonds and wants to talk them up until they can get them converted? What if there were Vin number gaps and they are using incomplete data?

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Everybody acts like there aren't any catalysts left for TSLA till next earnings report, but this isn't true. All it takes is for one of the following to happen to spark another rally:

-Deutsche Bank to come out with a new $200 price target to spark a 10%+ rally
-Elon musk might tweet something like "1,000th reservation made in China today"
-The Model X is finalized and first delivery date is announced
-TSLA signs deal with Samsung and can now build 40,000 annually
-Tesla signs deal with BYD to supply batteries
-Tesla signs joint venture deal with JAC to produce cars in China
-Tesla preannounces earnings in early October. E.g. 6,000 cars delivered vs. 5,000 guidance.
-Model S gets best score ever from a reputable European Magazine

You're my hero! j/k. but seriously.

 

[Norse]

Come on now, I got weekly Calls that are Down 75%. Let me atleast get my Money back!

BTW Just now on twitter: @elonmusk Intense effort underway at Tesla to develop a practical autopilot system for model S.

And sleepy, sometimes you really scare me

 

[sleepyhead]

Any concern that the bank bought some of those bonds and wants to talk them up until they can get them converted? What if there were Vin number gaps and they are using incomplete data?

brianstorms posted in the Q3 earnings thread that he talked to employees who said that Tesla is producing over 700 cars per week now.

- - - Updated - - -

Stock is going in one direction now in afterhours. All of the traders have gone home already, lets see what tomorrow brings. If I had cash, I would be buying TSLA in afterhours right now before the market figures out the Deutsche Bank upgrade. Stock only up 1%, who wants the other 9%?

 

[arashlzy]

Go me!

That happened on Monday with the pop in the market after news over the weekend. Then the stock simmered back down.
Weak volume today and not much price-movement, good for call/put sellers, should continue like this until some news come out on TSLA to trade on. I hope one of the things on Sleepy's list happens before earnings

Thanks for the BOLD Sleepy! I called it one hr before the news broke:biggrin::biggrin:, lets see how much green we can get tomorrow

 

[Norse]

brianstorms posted in the Q3 earnings thread that he talked to employees who said that Tesla is producing over 700 cars per week now.

- - - Updated - - -

Stock is going in one direction now in afterhours. All of the traders have gone home already, lets see what tomorrow brings. If I had cash, I would be buying TSLA in afterhours right now before the market figures out the Deutsche Bank upgrade. Stock only up 1%, who wants the other 9%?

Wish I could buy on the AH-trade.

 

[sleepyhead]

Wish I could buy on the AH-trade.

And that is why I have been buying calls instead of selling puts and selling calls.

If this stock does go crazy on this upgrade as well as Elon's tweet then those selling calls are not going to be able to cash out in time before the market opens.

Already up 2%. 8% still to go...

 

[redharel]

looking at the open option there is a quite rise in the 165C
any indication for 170 break today or just option games for the weekend expiration???

two huge 5M candle through a sleepy trading, anybody know something?

i have 100 stocks in my watchlist, 99 are dead green and only TSLA is red
go figure...

tommorow 170 probably :smile:

i had 3 posts today and couldn't figured it out myself
must be inside trading that cause the suspicious movements
instead of filling my bag with calls for the weekend i've ended with empty sheet
:cursing:

 

[sleepyhead]

If I were a bullish analyst, I would come out with my TSLA piece tomorrow. Strike iron while its hot.

Called this one too.