Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[Norbert]

Not necessarily completely new news, but something nice from this video is it mentions that Tesla is getting incredibly good rates to ship cars to China, and will start to do so first quarter 2014. The reason is that there are so many container-ships from China going back empty, so it is really cheap to ship things there.

Musk Says SpaceEx Had Very Close Call With Failure: Video - Bloomberg

 

[brianman]

...Tesla is getting good deals to ship cars to China, and will start to do so first quarter 2014.

The reason is that there are so many container-ships from China going back empty, so it is really cheap to ship things there.

 

[CyberDutchie]

TSLA on Cruise Control
According to Morgan Stanley report, best strategy is to "do nothing".

Does this mean we can stop posting on the short term thread for the remainder of the year?

Here's what the Morgan Stanley analyst had to say:

Tesla shares may be in cruise control through the remainder of 2013 as a confluence of technical and fundamental factors argue for a relatively stable share price development.

Technical reasons:
- Short interest ratio falling from over 40pct earlier in the year to under 2pct today.
- Longs don't want to sell and Tesla, as a disruptive story, will take many years to play out.
- Incremental buyers scared to wade in with a stock chart like Tesla's.
- Each day around $1bn worth of Tesla stock trades, re-affirming $20bn valuation.

Fundamental reasons:
- Expectations are appropriately high while Tesla appears on track to achieve a 25pct gross margin by 4Q.
- European and Asian deliveries source of positive news flow, and are needed to meet next year’s volume expectations.
- Supply constraints limit the potential for near term volume surprise. Tesla has said (in public?) it may be well into 2014 before supplier bottlenecks could be overcome.
- No materially new, market moving developments on Model X or Gen 3 expected for several months.

 

[AlMc]

TSLA on Cruise Control
According to Morgan Stanley report, best strategy is to "do nothing".

Does this mean we can stop posting on the short term thread for the remainder of the year?

Here's what the Morgan Stanley analyst had to say:

Based on my faith with large firm analysts.....This means expect a big move up or down this week! :wink:

 

[Robert.Boston]

[moderator's note: a few posts were moved to GM to introduce Tesla rival, JB Straubel comments on battery cost ]

 

[hoang51]

Wow, pre-market is beating up TSLA over nothing (GM competition is a joke). I guess it is just another one of those Tesla Tuesdays...

 

[bonaire]

The term "over nothing" is interesting.

Aren't analysts giving Tesla a high valuation now for a consumer car that is bound to be created late in 2017? And a Model-X that won't ship in volume until 2015? Given the apparent EV marketplace is growing (ie. VW, GM and others piling-on) then either "it is something" or everyone is getting into the hype game now.

It all boils down to: build products, issue GAAP earnings releases, perform fair market analysis. Betting on the future is always full of risk. When a stock valuation is based on unknowns of a "might happen" future, then we are all on a fool's errand.

 

[hoang51]

The term "over nothing" is interesting.

Aren't analysts giving Tesla a high valuation now for a consumer car that is bound to be created late in 2017? And a Model-X that won't ship in volume until 2015? Given the apparent EV marketplace is growing (ie. VW, GM and others piling-on) then either "it is something" or everyone is getting into the hype game now.

It all boils down to: build products, issue GAAP earnings releases, perform fair market analysis. Betting on the future is always full of risk. When a stock valuation is based on unknowns of a "might happen" future, then we are all on a fool's errand.

When I read the GM challenge, it is like any other challenge so far: all hype challenge. To me, it seems that TSLA will pull an AAPL leader as it once was back with the initial rollout of iPhone and competitions tried to do something about it but couldn't for the next few years.

 

[pGo]

Here is a news about Tesla doing a Joint Venture with JAC in China. It is a rumor but if true will require a lot of thoughts including a new stock offering?

http://www.eeo.com.cn/2013/0913/249735.shtml

Moderators moved the original thread out of investors discussion, hence posting here.

 

[AlMc]

Here is a news about Tesla doing a Joint Venture with JAC in China. It is a rumor but if true will require a lot of thoughts including a new stock offering?

http://www.eeo.com.cn/2013/0913/249735.shtml

Moderators moved the original thread out of investors discussion, hence posting here.

Wish I could read Chinese. Can you paraphrase in English?

 

[pGo]

For a better read:
http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20130917000051&cid=1102&MainCatID=11

- - - Updated - - -

I'm just like you. The translated page suggested $5B in investment, while the new link suggests 5B yuan in investment, almost an order of magnitude difference

 

[marvinat0rz]

When a stock valuation is based on unknowns of a "might happen" future, then we are all on a fool's errand.

If Tesla had a "sensible" P/E of around 10 and a "reasonable" P/B value around 1.5 now, it would be the opportunity of a lifetime and I wouldn't hesitate to invest 100% of my assets before the stock market closed. What "might be" is the only correct way to value a growth company (or, indeed, any company - someone with a significant probability of trouble in the future could have negative P/B values or P/E ratios below 1). The "correct" stock price is the discounted value of all future earnings, and the actual stock price is the stock market's best guess at this number. Take your pick - if the market cap is above your estimated expected value for this number, get out.

Although I do agree with your point that the statement "over nothing" is a bit meaningless when the price has already been set by conjecture and sentiment.

 

[ckessel]

When a stock valuation is based on unknowns of a "might happen" future, then we are all on a fool's errand.

That's the valuation of practically every single stock that exists. You don't invest for what something is worth today (be it stocks, real estate, or beanie babies), but what you think it'll be worth in some unknown future full of things that "might happen"..

 

[hoang51]

Perhaps I should've used "over something lame" rather than "over nothing". But either way, I saw all hype from GM as a competitor from that article. Anyway, at least the stock is recovering right now, we are back into the green.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Green! Not something I expected when it dipped into the $163 area.

 

[sleepyhead]

Green! Not something I expected when it dipped into the $163 area.

I did, that is why I bought more Dec calls. Already up 10%.

There is no reason for TSLA to go down. If it does, I might have to sell everything else I have and load up on TSLA.

There is significant upward pressure on TSLA right now and all it needs is a catalyst to catapult past its ATH into the $180s. If this catalyst doesn't come in the next couple of weeksthough, then we might see some downward pressure on TSLA.

 

[redharel]

buckle up 170 is coming

 

[MartinAustin]

TSLA was just mentioned on CNBC. Apparently it's up today because GM announced an electric car but can't bring it to market for a long....time..... whereas "Tesla is in the here and now."

 

[kevin99]

Interesting to see how the stock reacts to the article. It is a jerk knee reaction first, then shrug off like nothing new.

The stock has behaved in similar contrarian fashion to the last several non-trivial events, both positive and negative. It seems there are plenty of people on both sides: buyers who are ready to buy at 3-5% dip; sellers who are ready to sell when it gets to $170.

Nothing beats a hedged play when price are bound in the range.

 

[MartinAustin]

Interesting to see how the stock reacts to the article. It is a jerk knee reaction first, then shrug off like nothing new.

The stock has behaved in similar contrarian fashion to the last several non-trivial events, both positive and negative. It seems there are plenty of people on both sides: buyers who are ready to buy at 3-5% dip; sellers who are ready to sell when it gets to $170.

Nothing beats a hedged play when price are bound in the range.

Yep. There hasn't been any concrete news out of Tesla for a while... this is a sort of "doldrums" to use the nautical term. As we approach Q3 earnings - or even, simply the end of this month since that's the end of the fiscal quarter itself - hopefully there will be more data/news coming out to push the sails.