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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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Deonb,

Thanks for the explanation. I actually did this play today, or at least I thought I did, but made one big mistake. :redface: In stead of "sell to open" put I did a "buy to open" put. How would I reverse this, "sell to close" the put followed by another "sell to open" put?

I'm a newbie at this as you can tell. Just bought 1 call and 1 put, so damage done is minimal (I hope).

Actually, what you did there by accident was to enter into an option strategy called a long straddle. (Buying a call & put at the same strike price). Here is how that one works:

You basically use a straddle if you think the stock price will have a big move - you're just not sure whether it's up or down.

e.g. You think TSLA at $55 is a wrong value. Like the shorts, you think fundamentally the stock should be closer to $40, but unlike the shorts, you think Tesla has about an even chance of overcoming fundamentals and create a blow-out stock price. You think the CC on the 8th is going to cause a move into one or the other direction - but you don't know which.

So you:
a) Buy a May 10th $55 call at $2.75
b) Buy a May 10th $55 put for $3.40

And the two together costs you $6.15

Let's say you're right and after the earnings call:
1) TSLA tanks to $40. Your put would be worth $15, and your call would be worth $0. So you pocket $15 - $6.15 = $8.85
2) TSLA rises to $70. Your put would be worth $0, and your call would be worth $15. Again you pocket $15 - $6.15 = $8.85

If the stock price remains at $55 you will lose your $6.15. The price basically has to swing by $6.15 - i.e. lower than $48.85 or higher than $61.15 for you to make a profit.

I however wouldn't recommend that specific strategy using TSLA long options (did you end up buying JAN 2015 expiration date?). That swing that needs to be overcome for you to make a profit would be very high. (The cost is $30.2. That would mean you're betting that TSLA has even odds of hitting $24.80 and $85.20 within 2 years - just for you to break even, and that those odds are higher than it staying within that band. That would be highly speculative, and not in the same risk/reward category as that of the synthetic long strategy).


If you do however reverse your put position today to move from a long straddle to a synthetic long, you may not be able to sell the put at the original price you would have gotten on Friday. The idea is to have the money you get from the put to pay for the call, with some left over. If that doesn't work out that well because you bough/sold at different times, don't let it dissuade you on the long run! But who knows, the 'put' price could also go up today if the stock price falls, so you may also be better off. Can't say though that I'm rooting for that to happen :)
 
@deonb, thanks for the exlanations and want to say that this really helps understand the market (even though I'm not willing to trade options just yet) moving even thought there is no news.

I'm making a supposition that *most* option trading (positions held) occurs within a few days to weeks, unlike long holding shares for months or years. Volatility only leads to more volatility as options traders bet on this bigger and bigger moves.

Case in point: TSLA Options | Tesla Motors, Inc. Stock - Yahoo! Finance

There are some really strange numbers in there this morning and I wonder what they indicate outside of insanity :wink:

tsla put.PNG
 
There are some really strange numbers in there this morning and I wonder what they indicate outside of insanity :wink:

They indicate that you shouldn't trust Yahoo for stock quotes...

The TSLA May 2013 $50.00 call that according to Yahoo closed at $1220.70, actually closed on Friday at $5.55.
The TSLA May 2013 $57.00 call that according to Yahoo closed at $430.00, actually closed on Friday at $2.09.
 
I predicted that the short squeeze would have happened with Gen III launch. But I am starting to think that I was wrong.

I think the only old shorts still in are the ones that want to wait out the earnings call, hoping desperately for something like 15% gross margins.

PS: Don't you just love those long sustained dime spreads where the asks just do not budge :).
 
Actually, what you did there by accident was to enter into an option strategy called a long straddle. (Buying a call & put at the same strike price). Here is how that one works:

You basically use a straddle if you think the stock price will have a big move - you're just not sure whether it's up or down.

...

If you do however reverse your put position today to move from a long straddle to a synthetic long, you may not be able to sell the put at the original price you would have gotten on Friday. The idea is to have the money you get from the put to pay for the call, with some left over. If that doesn't work out that well because you bough/sold at different times, don't let it dissuade you on the long run! But who knows, the 'put' price could also go up today if the stock price falls, so you may also be better off. Can't say though that I'm rooting for that to happen :)

Thanks delonb, your explanation of these different plays are really helpful! I fixed my mistake with only $90 loss to make this the syntetic long as intended. I also followed mershaw2001's tip to walk the asking price down in 0.10 increments until order got filled--versus selling at market.

Mods, these posts probably belong on the newbie thread :wink:
 
@deonb, thanks for the exlanations and want to say that this really helps understand the market (even though I'm not willing to trade options just yet) moving even thought there is no news.

I'm making a supposition that *most* option trading (positions held) occurs within a few days to weeks, unlike long holding shares for months or years.

Similar discussion in newbie thread. Not necessarily, many use LEAPS over months and years to essentially hold more long position than they would otherwise have in shares. Rolling them out each year to the next and simply riding through all the volatility. I do this with a range of calls currently and will for the next several years
 
I may really regret this come Wednesday's earnings call and what might happen on Thursday but, cashed out 95% of my long position (acquired at $33.91 just over a year ago) at $57.73.

Now, looking (wishing) for a correction and a ~$45 entry point that may never come :scared:
 
TSLA new all time high today! $58.18. Luv it! Squeeze those ignorant shorts... Go drive the car and you'd be crazy to be short this company with anything other than short-term risk capital (IMO)

- - - Updated - - -

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- - - Updated - - -

I may really regret this come Wednesday's earnings call and what might happen on Thursday but, cashed out 95% of my long position (acquired at $33.91 just over a year ago) at $57.73.

Now, looking (wishing) for a correction and a ~$45 entry point that may never come :scared:

Nice long term cap gain for you. Good job. Good luck with the reentry price. You'll probably get an opportunity to buy a dip at some point. I've bought the dips
 
This may be a factor in today's share price move. Tesla has hired Aston Martin's chief engineer to become Tesla's VP of engineering. Tesla Hires Aston Martin's Vehicle Engineering Leader (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Right after the email came in the shares spiked a bit. However, wasn't it known that he was being hired by those who track TSLA? Shows how much the rest of the market tracks it.

Also, I posted this in another thread too but did you notice the fine print at the end of the email:

old: "Tesla has delivered almost 10,000 electric vehicles to customers in 31 countries." <- Last Friday
new: "
Tesla has delivered over 10,000 electric vehicles to customers in 31 countries." <- Today
 
I may really regret this come Wednesday's earnings call and what might happen on Thursday but, cashed out 95% of my long position (acquired at $33.91 just over a year ago) at $57.73.

Now, looking (wishing) for a correction and a ~$45 entry point that may never come :scared:

GG, I did something similar, sold my long position weeks ago at $46 (my average price was $28), I locked in a nice profit.
10 days later, I bought back part of my position (300 shares, using just the profits) at $52, yup it's up $5-6 a/o today.
You might consider using just the profits on your repurchase, then your all on the "Houses" money :) it will also allow you to buy more on dips below that point (if that happens at some point)
 
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