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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Robert.Boston, Feb 24, 2013.

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  1. trils0n

    trils0n 2013 P85

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    When I picked up my car at the factory in March (I think Tesla was making 40 cars a day, or 200 a week at that time) the tour guide mentioned a few things when asked about the production capacity of the current line. Some processes, stamping in particular, were only running a few hours a day, 3 or 4 days a week. Others were running 5 days a week. The standout was battery pack assembly -- I was told that was running 24/7 and was their biggest bottleneck. If cell supply is secure I wonder if this is still an issue.

    (This tour guide also said the battery pack housing/armor was steel, so take this with a grain of salt)
     
  2. Zzzz...

    Zzzz... Member

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    When Elon was referring to battery constrains(and was talking about gigafactory), he meant potential constrains for Gen3 production with expected output on order of hundreds of thousands of units per year.

    Recent contract with Panasonic gives Tesla enouph cells to produce 250k+ Model S/X in next 3 to 4 years. We would be lucky if TM could actually do it. It is a huge challenge for both Tesla factory and rest of Tesla supply chain.
     
  3. MikeC

    MikeC Active Member

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    Here is my transcription of the earnings call at 5:20 into it:

    Question: What is your feel on current assembly line capacity vs. 3 months ago?

    Elon: The main constraint on our production is really our cells. I think I mentioned that before in talks and I alluded to that in the prior earnings call…we’re addressing the cell supply constraints and any sort of non-cell constraints that exist, but really the critical thing is the cell production constraints, we announced the deal with Panasonic, which is for a much increased volume…when we think about the constraints on growth that’s the biggest item that gets most of our attention, and like I said I think we’ll see some relief on that constraint next year.
     
  4. Zzzz...

    Zzzz... Member

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    Yeah I guess EM misunderstood the question and that is why Tesla actually issued that clarification.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Or may be he was talking about very short term constrains, but TM clarification was talking about absense of general cell constrains in timeframe of years to come...
     
  5. ev-enthusiast

    ev-enthusiast Active Member

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    Stock is down 4,8% today in germany and close to currently 100€.
     
  6. redharel

    redharel Member

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    unless the euro will crush today, you will see tesla below 100€. losing 128$ will open the door to 115$!
     
  7. Theshadows

    Theshadows Active Member

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    #12567 Theshadows, Nov 8, 2013
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2013
    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements

    There is no way I would consider buying puts on this. That's another short term play and with all that has happened this stock has turned into a wild beast. There is no telling what it's going to do. I saw someone mention a straddle which sounded to me like a good idea, then I thought about it for a bit and what would happen if it consolidates here, or around the strike you pick.

    All of these are short term plays and all I have left is common, leaps, and cash to get more leaps next week. I have changed my options strategy now to what others have suggested before and that is only buying options that are really far out. I might still do some short term ones but it will be with really small dollar amounts.

    This beast could either be the bear or the bull, on it could just lay down and sleep for a period of time.
     
  8. Chickenlittle

    Chickenlittle Active Member

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    1. so you think this could go down or it could go up or it could stay the same. can you think of another possibility...i am stumped. i think you have it covered. i think staying the same is extremely unlikely though
    2. not a response to your post but i saw that some are claiming a clarification of his battery supply constraint issue. i think that such a change would not have been communicated privately. would not trade on it based on this comment. would like to see it released by tesla or musk
     
  9. Theshadows

    Theshadows Active Member

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    In the short term that is correct. Mid term, I think we will be back up into the 160-170 range by January. Long term is a different story all together, I think this pull back is going to give the bull tremendous momentum through next year.
     
  10. ev-enthusiast

    ev-enthusiast Active Member

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    #12570 ev-enthusiast, Nov 8, 2013
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2013
    UK turns to Elon Musk for advise on how to sell ultra-low emission vehicles:

    http://www.thegreencarwebsite.co.uk/blog/index.php/2013/11/07/uk-turns-to-elon-musk-for-advise-on-how-to-sell-ultra-low-emission-vehicles/

    Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg announced that Tesla CEO and co-founder, Elon Musk will personally advise ministers on how best to accelerate demand and encourage industry innovation for new energy vehicles in the country.

    A second £500 million fund is designed to support the market in addition to the fund of £400 million already in place.
     
  11. fjm9898

    fjm9898 Member

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    And the market is mad at the jobs numbers.
    Market is going to tank yet some more today. Best of luck to all
     
  12. justthateasy

    justthateasy Member

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    I wasn't around yesterday afternoon so I had to use the evening to catch up on reading posts. I'm very glad I did as it helps me to gather my thoughts and put everything into perspective.

    First of all, I am getting the sense that there seems to be a schism of sorts that is shaking up the community. Much of it attributed to the profit taking/profit protecting/panic selling or what ever else you want to call it. I can't emphasize it enough that aside from the few well known bears in the forum, I still think that we are all on the same side and remain very optimistic about the future of Tesla Motors (the company) and TSLA (the stock).

    As a company, Tesla is revolutionizing not only the automotive and energy industries but the world as a whole. This is 10 year old company with a single product that is about a decade ahead of other 100 year old car companies. Having this advantage has caused such a shake up in the industry that it forced the competition to come out with half baked products so they can appear like they're keeping up. Because of this, investors have gotten into the stock and have been rewarded in very little time.

    Despite the success that Tesla has enjoyed and the quick run up in the stock price, bumps in the road were inevitable. The past month has been rough on the company as it continues to deal with not meeting demand and the car fire issues. These issues have been even harder on investors as it has disrupted the stock price in the worst way imaginable. The one-two punch of the market's reaction to the earnings report and the third car fire has sent the stock off a cliff this week and there probably more downside in the foreseeable future.

    The downward movement put such a dent in many of our portfolios that many of us had no choice but to make defensive plays. These defensive moves seem to be the wedge between people here in the last couple days. Yes, many have liquidated their positions in TSLA in the short term, myself included. However, our sentiment for the long term has remained the same and we're not going anywhere.

    I can't speak for anyone else but I'm still a believer.
     
  13. Gtoffo

    Gtoffo Member

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    Why do you say that? From what I've seen the jobs report has been overwhelmingly considered positive. You fear a negative reaction on speculation regarding possible future tapering of the Fed's bond buying?
     
  14. ev-enthusiast

    ev-enthusiast Active Member

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    I totally agree.
    This is a tough battle EV industry against big oil and big car companies.
    Nobody said this will be easy. In fact it is one of the biggest challenges for the world during the decades to come.
    If there is some good news out there in the future, people will buy the stock in the same way again as earlier this year.
     
  15. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    I heard that Elon is shooting for 40,000 in 2014.
     
  16. marvinat0rz

    marvinat0rz Member

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    It'd be painful, but I'm not completely opposed to the idea of potentially riding this all the way down to <100. If we get considerably below that, it's time to buy I think... Plan B would be to get out now. But that sort of ruins the long-term prospects.
     
  17. Zzzz...

    Zzzz... Member

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    #12577 Zzzz..., Nov 8, 2013
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2013
    I got in at the end of summer'12 and during fall 2012. Lucky me.

    I liquidated mine position at ~$180 in September. Only to watch it keep going up, up to 193 in next few days. Then I waited.

    Next thing - I restored my TSLA position at 170. Timed the market!(I mean by selling at 180 and getting back ~$10 cheaper)

    I never sold a single share since then. Reason for that - I think TSLA could go up any moment. Even start climbing today.

    Anyone remember Volt fires? Do they affect Volt sales today? General public do have short memory shuffle.gif As for the market reaction on Q3 report - I think street got it wrong. And there is a good chance that Tesla will get $2 EPS(analysts project $1) next year. That should send TSLA price north of $200. But it is hard to say when. Even in short term we could be flirting around $160 in no time.

    IMHO of cause.
     
  18. Raffy.Roma

    Raffy.Roma Active Member

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    So we have guidance for 2014?
     
  19. carrerascott

    carrerascott FUEL FTR

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    Got back in today under $134.50. Couldn't resist.
     
  20. Convert2013

    Convert2013 Member

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    Similar thoughts in mind. But not waiting till $100.
     
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