Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[trils0n]

This comment (from Tesla, apparently?) was just sent out by Dougherty & Co.:

"Tesla is production constrained at present because the factory is still ramping. Tesla is not cell constrained right now and won’t be for another three to four years. Tesla has ample battery supply available to double and even triple current production. That was unclear on the call and we did not make it clear in our conversations with investors this week."

I felt like that was relatively clear on the call, but considering how everyone here has been talking about battery cell constraints for the last couple days, I thought I'd put this out there.

When I picked up my car at the factory in March (I think Tesla was making 40 cars a day, or 200 a week at that time) the tour guide mentioned a few things when asked about the production capacity of the current line. Some processes, stamping in particular, were only running a few hours a day, 3 or 4 days a week. Others were running 5 days a week. The standout was battery pack assembly -- I was told that was running 24/7 and was their biggest bottleneck. If cell supply is secure I wonder if this is still an issue.

(This tour guide also said the battery pack housing/armor was steel, so take this with a grain of salt)

 

[Zzzz...]

When Elon was referring to battery constrains(and was talking about gigafactory), he meant potential constrains for Gen3 production with expected output on order of hundreds of thousands of units per year.

Recent contract with Panasonic gives Tesla enouph cells to produce 250k+ Model S/X in next 3 to 4 years. We would be lucky if TM could actually do it. It is a huge challenge for both Tesla factory and rest of Tesla supply chain.

 

[MikeC]

"Tesla is production constrained at present because the factory is still ramping. Tesla is not cell constrained right now and won’t be for another three to four years. Tesla has ample battery supply available to double and even triple current production. That was unclear on the call and we did not make it clear in our conversations with investors this week."

When Elon was referring to battery constrains(and was talking about gigafactory), he meant potential constrains for Gen3 production with expected output on order of hundreds of thousands of units per year.

Recent contract with Panasonic gives Tesla enouph cells to produce 250k+ Model S/X in next 3 to 4 years. We would be lucky if TM could actually do it. It is a huge challenge for both Tesla factory and rest of Tesla supply chain.

Here is my transcription of the earnings call at 5:20 into it:

Question: What is your feel on current assembly line capacity vs. 3 months ago?

Elon: The main constraint on our production is really our cells. I think I mentioned that before in talks and I alluded to that in the prior earnings call…we’re addressing the cell supply constraints and any sort of non-cell constraints that exist, but really the critical thing is the cell production constraints, we announced the deal with Panasonic, which is for a much increased volume…when we think about the constraints on growth that’s the biggest item that gets most of our attention, and like I said I think we’ll see some relief on that constraint next year.

 

[Zzzz...]

Yeah I guess EM misunderstood the question and that is why Tesla actually issued that clarification.

- - - Updated - - -

Or may be he was talking about very short term constrains, but TM clarification was talking about absense of general cell constrains in timeframe of years to come...

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Stock is down 4,8% today in germany and close to currently 100€.

 

[redharel]

Stock is down 4,8% today in germany and close to curreny 100€.

unless the euro will crush today, you will see tesla below 100€. losing 128$ will open the door to 115$!

 

[InTheShadows]

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements

Time to turn the tide and either buy puts or wait until the correction is over (I'm buying puts). At this point, I'm turning negative for the short term because now the market really shows that TSLA is overvalued.

There is no way I would consider buying puts on this. That's another short term play and with all that has happened this stock has turned into a wild beast. There is no telling what it's going to do. I saw someone mention a straddle which sounded to me like a good idea, then I thought about it for a bit and what would happen if it consolidates here, or around the strike you pick.

All of these are short term plays and all I have left is common, leaps, and cash to get more leaps next week. I have changed my options strategy now to what others have suggested before and that is only buying options that are really far out. I might still do some short term ones but it will be with really small dollar amounts.

This beast could either be the bear or the bull, on it could just lay down and sleep for a period of time.

 

[Chickenlittle]

There is no way I would consider buying puts on this. That's another short term play and with all that has happened this stock has turned into a wild beast. There is no telling what it's going to do. I saw someone mention a straddle which sounded to me like a good idea, then I thought about it for a bit and what would happen if it consolidates here, or around the strike you pick.

All of these are short term plays and all I have left is common, leaps, and cash to get more leaps next week. I have changed my options strategy now to what others have suggested before and that is only buying options that are really far out. I might still do some short term ones but it will be with really small dollar amounts.

This beast could either be the bear or the bull, on it could just lay down and sleep for a period of time.

1. so you think this could go down or it could go up or it could stay the same. can you think of another possibility...i am stumped. i think you have it covered. i think staying the same is extremely unlikely though
2. not a response to your post but i saw that some are claiming a clarification of his battery supply constraint issue. i think that such a change would not have been communicated privately. would not trade on it based on this comment. would like to see it released by tesla or musk

 

[InTheShadows]

1. so you think this could go down or it could go up or it could stay the same. can you think of another possibility...i am stumped. i think you have it covered. i think staying the same is extremely unlikely though

In the short term that is correct. Mid term, I think we will be back up into the 160-170 range by January. Long term is a different story all together, I think this pull back is going to give the bull tremendous momentum through next year.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

UK turns to Elon Musk for advise on how to sell ultra-low emission vehicles:

http://www.thegreencarwebsite.co.uk...e-on-how-to-sell-ultra-low-emission-vehicles/

Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg announced that Tesla CEO and co-founder, Elon Musk will personally advise ministers on how best to accelerate demand and encourage industry innovation for new energy vehicles in the country.

A second £500 million fund is designed to support the market in addition to the fund of £400 million already in place.

 

[fjm9898]

or it could make it worse..
with this market good news is bad news (today) GDP up, market sells off in fear of taper.
tomorrow bad news could be bad for the market if to bad. If its good then its bad, in fear of taper. So we have to find the pin hole that what is bad and not to bad for the market to be happy.

And the market is mad at the jobs numbers.
Market is going to tank yet some more today. Best of luck to all

 

[justthateasy]

I wasn't around yesterday afternoon so I had to use the evening to catch up on reading posts. I'm very glad I did as it helps me to gather my thoughts and put everything into perspective.

First of all, I am getting the sense that there seems to be a schism of sorts that is shaking up the community. Much of it attributed to the profit taking/profit protecting/panic selling or what ever else you want to call it. I can't emphasize it enough that aside from the few well known bears in the forum, I still think that we are all on the same side and remain very optimistic about the future of Tesla Motors (the company) and TSLA (the stock).

As a company, Tesla is revolutionizing not only the automotive and energy industries but the world as a whole. This is 10 year old company with a single product that is about a decade ahead of other 100 year old car companies. Having this advantage has caused such a shake up in the industry that it forced the competition to come out with half baked products so they can appear like they're keeping up. Because of this, investors have gotten into the stock and have been rewarded in very little time.

Despite the success that Tesla has enjoyed and the quick run up in the stock price, bumps in the road were inevitable. The past month has been rough on the company as it continues to deal with not meeting demand and the car fire issues. These issues have been even harder on investors as it has disrupted the stock price in the worst way imaginable. The one-two punch of the market's reaction to the earnings report and the third car fire has sent the stock off a cliff this week and there probably more downside in the foreseeable future.

The downward movement put such a dent in many of our portfolios that many of us had no choice but to make defensive plays. These defensive moves seem to be the wedge between people here in the last couple days. Yes, many have liquidated their positions in TSLA in the short term, myself included. However, our sentiment for the long term has remained the same and we're not going anywhere.

I can't speak for anyone else but I'm still a believer.

 

[Gtoffo]

And the market is mad at the jobs numbers.
Market is going to tank yet some more today. Best of luck to all

Why do you say that? From what I've seen the jobs report has been overwhelmingly considered positive. You fear a negative reaction on speculation regarding possible future tapering of the Fed's bond buying?

 

[ev-enthusiast]

I can't speak for anyone else but I'm still a believer.

I totally agree.
This is a tough battle EV industry against big oil and big car companies.
Nobody said this will be easy. In fact it is one of the biggest challenges for the world during the decades to come.
If there is some good news out there in the future, people will buy the stock in the same way again as earlier this year.

 

[vfx]

Doesn't this basically confirm Tesla expects to sell more than 60,000 vehicles annually by 2015?...

I heard that Elon is shooting for 40,000 in 2014.

 

[marvinat0rz]

It'd be painful, but I'm not completely opposed to the idea of potentially riding this all the way down to <100. If we get considerably below that, it's time to buy I think... Plan B would be to get out now. But that sort of ruins the long-term prospects.

 

[Zzzz...]

I got in at the end of summer'12 and during fall 2012. Lucky me.

I liquidated mine position at ~$180 in September. Only to watch it keep going up, up to 193 in next few days. Then I waited.

Next thing - I restored my TSLA position at 170. Timed the market!(I mean by selling at 180 and getting back ~$10 cheaper)

I never sold a single share since then. Reason for that - I think TSLA could go up any moment. Even start climbing today.

Anyone remember Volt fires? Do they affect Volt sales today? General public do have short memory

As for the market reaction on Q3 report - I think street got it wrong. And there is a good chance that Tesla will get $2 EPS(analysts project $1) next year. That should send TSLA price north of $200. But it is hard to say when. Even in short term we could be flirting around $160 in no time.

IMHO of cause.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

I heard that Elon is shooting for 40,000 in 2014.

So we have guidance for 2014?

 

[carrerascott]

Got back in today under $134.50. Couldn't resist.

 

[Convert2013]

It'd be painful, but I'm not completely opposed to the idea of potentially riding this all the way down to <100. If we get considerably below that, it's time to buy I think... Plan B would be to get out now. But that sort of ruins the long-term prospects.

Similar thoughts in mind. But not waiting till $100.