I realized this past week my TSLA holdings went down the equivalent of a 60kWh Model S. I still call that a loss.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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I realized this past week my TSLA holdings went down the equivalent of a 60kWh Model S. I still call that a loss.
MartinAustin
Active Member
My losses are currently about the cost of the car I'm planning to buy! Or... 3 days ago the car was free... now I have to find $90,000 to buy it.
I am rapidly finding out what it is like to realise I am not a "weak long." I have not decided to sell my stock yet, even though I sold it when it fell to 184 and then bought it again at 157. For some reason I am riding this out.
When I looked back at the very beginning of this entire thread - when Tesla had just dropped from $39 to $34 - I realised that people were saying exactly the same sort of stuff back then as they are now. Only difference is, we now have the long-term view to look back to those times while knowing what would come to pass. It gives me heart to stick around and watch the stock regain its position. Check it out!
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/14261-Short-Term-TSLA-Price-Movements
I worry about tomorrow. I don't know how many people knew about the 3rd fire during trading. I checked the stock a couple of times during the day when I could, and google search results, but did not see the fire news until the end of the day.
InTheShadows
Active Member
That is true when you are talking common stock.
When you are talking about options that is a whole different story. When I only had common stock I didn't bat an eye at any price drops, I wouldn't have on this one either. However with options that will expire at a loss or worthless, this month, next, or even March of next year it's a whole different mentality.
That being said I am personally hoping the stock gets beat down tomorrow to one of the support levels DaveT mentioned in his mega post, I'd like to see 120 or even 108, and for the stock to hold it there even through Monday so I can pick up some jan 2016 options.
If this happens all the short term losses I had in the past week should easily be recouped.
I think a lot of the bull call options players are in the same boat (I'm one of them). Time to turn the tide and either buy puts or wait until the correction is over (I'm buying puts). At this point, I'm turning negative for the short term because now the market really shows that TSLA is overvalued. I thought that this third fire would be nothing since the first fire demonstrated that a Model S is safe. The market showed me I was wrong. So it looks like TSLA is going to fall some more until I think Tesla announces a better battery protection plan/result and more battery production to relieve the production strain.
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Oh, I think a lot of careful investors knew because it dipped and sold off like crazy, just like the first and the second. I think this time, there won't be a recovery as before, because this is not a one time thing anymore. You probably do have the right to be worried about tomorrow because the short selling rule would be lifted tomorrow and short selling can resume on this stock.
I wonder where kevin99 has gone. I know last time he posted something informative, it was a warning of buying puts (which he is correct). Now I wonder what put options strategy is he/would he consider doing if he's doing one.
Never thought I would say this, but I do too. Once this is all over, clearer heads will prevail and we will be right back on our way to 200. The cheaper I can pick up some shares though, the better.
The news was on my iPhone app at market open.
@hoang51, the stock had to go down today. It was a self-fulfilling prophecy - it dropped after the first two fires, so everyone knew everyone was going to sell (especially when the biggest bulls on this forum are posting about panic selling). Add in the TWTR IPO which appears to have sucked the life out of the NASDAQ, on the heels of the "disappointing" ER, and we had no chance today.
This is a blip for longs. Does anyone think Elon and co. won't come up with the most practical and efficient solution, if one is needed?
Anytime I start to find myself doubting the inevitability of Tesla, I just go for a drive. I'm just going to pay a little more attention to debris on the road now.
@hoang51, the stock had to go down today. It was a self-fulfilling prophecy - it dropped after the first two fires, so everyone knew everyone was going to sell (especially when the biggest bulls on this forum are posting about panic selling). Add in the TWTR IPO which appears to have sucked the life out of the NASDAQ, on the heels of the "disappointing" ER, and we had no chance today.
This is a blip for longs. Does anyone think Elon and co. won't come up with the most practical and efficient solution, if one is needed?
Anytime I start to find myself doubting the inevitability of Tesla, I just go for a drive. I'm just going to pay a little more attention to debris on the road now.
bareyb
Active Member
Changed my mind. I'm still in. I'm just sick of all the drama every time there's a fire etc. The company is sound, they are still on track to achieve their goals. I think what I really need is to unsubscribe from this thread and try to forget about my stock for a few years...
Get greedy when everyone is fearful. I think we need to ask ourselves "Is Tesla going to go out of business because of this event or are its profits majorly dented for years to come?". I think the answer is No. They almost did for real go out of business in 2008 when noone knew who they were when the economy tanked. Now they have already built up a strong brand. All companies have growing pains and issues throughout their existence. I remember when the Airbus A380 wing was ruptured in flight by a failed engine fan blade afew years ago. People were lucky to be alive as that incident came close to primary structural failure which could have killed all onboard (hundreds of people). Airbus went ahead to sell more A380s to other customers shortly after that. No customers cancelled orders (not worried passengers would not fly on that plane). We will get over this one.
But not sure if not looking at the stock for years is a good idea. I always keep on top of my investments..
You may be right. Tomorrow is also the jobs report which could drive the overall market higher.
This statement is not based on any kind of complete data. No one is filming the cars that are not on fire.
By the way. Here on TMC, Dr Computer, Augieko, Davecolone0606, and VFX (myself) have all run over SERIOUSLY large and dangerous steel road debris. No injuries, no fires, damaged but still working cars and while Augie had a pack penetration it just left him with him with a reduced range Tesla.
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or it could make it worse..
with this market good news is bad news (today) GDP up, market sells off in fear of taper.
tomorrow bad news could be bad for the market if to bad. If its good then its bad, in fear of taper. So we have to find the pin hole that what is bad and not to bad for the market to be happy.
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That is very dangerous statement that causes people to lose all their money. Many stocks have gone from high values to bankrupt.
It doesn't matter what you paid for a stock, it only matters where you think it will go from here.
If you think it will go down and you own it, sell. Seems pretty obvious and straightforward. Doesn't matter how much you've made or lost.
If you think it will go up buy.
Its most dangerous when someone hangs on to a sinking ship and never lets go. IF you think it will go down, sell now and buy back in when you think its going to go up.
My problem is that I can't tell for the life of me if TSLA is heading up or down in the near term. Sure, years down the road I still think its a $300 stock, but if I have to wait years there are other stocks I can invest in.
I guess I keep assuming that this is an overreaction. I'm still mostly in. I expect (hope) that it will bottom around here. Elon better say something good about how they are going to address the battery fire issue. Then I expect the stock to quickly head back up to $150 and slowly start rising again to the $180s.
This comment (from Tesla, apparently?) was just sent out by Dougherty & Co.:
"Tesla is production constrained at present because the factory is still ramping. Tesla is not cell constrained right now and won’t be for another three to four years. Tesla has ample battery supply available to double and even triple current production. That was unclear on the call and we did not make it clear in our conversations with investors this week."
I felt like that was relatively clear on the call, but considering how everyone here has been talking about battery cell constraints for the last couple days, I thought I'd put this out there.
"Tesla is production constrained at present because the factory is still ramping. Tesla is not cell constrained right now and won’t be for another three to four years. Tesla has ample battery supply available to double and even triple current production. That was unclear on the call and we did not make it clear in our conversations with investors this week."
I felt like that was relatively clear on the call, but considering how everyone here has been talking about battery cell constraints for the last couple days, I thought I'd put this out there.
I don't think that was clear at all and I'm glad they sent it out. Thanks for posting.
Doesn't this basically confirm Tesla expects to sell more than 60,000 vehicles annually by 2015?
"Enough cel supply to meet the demand for at least another 3-4 years"
The Panasonic deal is for enough cels to build at least 60,000 vehicles in 2014. (100,000 vehicles annually by 2016?)
"Enough cel supply to meet the demand for at least another 3-4 years"
The Panasonic deal is for enough cels to build at least 60,000 vehicles in 2014. (100,000 vehicles annually by 2016?)
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
There's still the other 1% component that doesn't ramp besides the battery. I think they are why the production rate is so low. Did anyone else get that from the conference call? Or is it just me?
I think you might have misheard some of the conversation around lithium supply:
"Raw materials are not an issue. That is correct. I wouldn't worry about say lithium supply, or there is a lot of lithium out there and the main constituents really in the cell are, by weight or actually nickel and cobalt, aluminum then lithium. Lithium is like maybe 1% of the cell in that. Maybe 2%"
Is it possible this is what you're referring to?
My impression was that he said that the battery is the main constraint, but there are a few other things that are almost as constrained. Then he said something like they weren't working on those other things as much because they were already constrained by the battery anyway.
"Tesla is production constrained at present because the factory is still ramping. Tesla is not cell constrained right now and won’t be for another three to four years. Tesla has ample battery supply available to double and even triple current production. That was unclear on the call and we did not make it clear in our conversations with investors this week."
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