Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[nygiants242]

Not enough gas to get to $100. I think this will trickle down into the lower 80s. This morning was a good time to book profits.

 

[FVO]

I was thinking. It would be a double gain if EM asked Obama to think about this law that says that cars have to sold trough independent dealerships...

 

[mitch672]

So the secondary offering is keyed off of this afternoon's closing price, correct? What impact does that have on tomorrow's stock price?

From what I've read, correct, the offering will be at today's closing price, which usually means it's going to be sold and start trading Friday morning.

 

[hershey101]

From what I've read, correct, the offering will be at today's closing price, which usually means it's going to be sold and start trading Friday morning.

So does that mean that the price should go down tomorrow morning after today's close?

 

[Robert.Boston]

So does that mean that the price should go down tomorrow morning after today's close?

No, the market should already have priced in the effect of tomorrow's sales. At this point, it's a crapshoot whether the price will rise or fall.

 

[deonb]

No, the market should already have priced in the effect of tomorrow's sales. At this point, it's a crapshoot whether the price will rise or fall.

How many extra shares will hit the market tomorrow? All 2.7 million? I take it they will stagger it through the day and not put up a 2.7 million share sell order at the opening bell...

 

[EarlyAdopter]

So does that mean that the price should go down tomorrow morning after today's close?

After the last secondary offering last October at $28 to the tune of 8 million shares the stock went up. This offering is considerably smalller at only 2.7 million shares.

 

[FredTMC]

Notice the sideways saw tooth pattern since 10:30 EST... Same thing happened yesterday.

Heres my question: Is some "big boy" accumulating or distributing stock? Yesterday it turned into a descending triangle and resolved to the upside. Definitely seems to me that someone is controlling the range during the middle of the day (to work in their order book within this narrow range).

Thoughts? Accum or distribution?

 

[mitch672]

How many extra shares will hit the market tomorrow? All 2.7 million? I take it they will stagger it through the day and not put up a 2.7 million share sell order at the opening bell...

They are probably doing a private placement to large mutual funds, you might not see any of the shares traded for quite a while, I doubt it will even be noticed.

 

[johnmodels]

I cannot believe I put my toe back in this stock at 90. That will represent my 4th time buying higher than I sold. A small position though.

 

[Johan]

I cannot believe I put my toe back in this stock at 90. That will represent my 4th time buying higher than I sold. A small position though.

Stop selling. Hold for the long run?

On another note, an interesting read:
Who bought Tesla ahead of the massive short squeeze? - The Tell - MarketWatch

 

[gaswalla]

Stop selling. Hold for the long run?

On another note, an interesting read:
Who bought Tesla ahead of the massive short squeeze? - The Tell - MarketWatch

The comments after this article are very entertaining.

 

[ggr]

Tomorrow there are about 35,000 in-the-money call options expiring. This means 3.5M shares. This is about 10-15% of daily volume. I have no idea how to evaluate whether this will be a positive or negative for the stock price; I can think of reasons in both directions. Any more informed opinions?

 

[DonPedro]

Tomorrow there are about 35,000 in-the-money call options expiring. This means 3.5M shares. This is about 10-15% of daily volume. I have no idea how to evaluate whether this will be a positive or negative for the stock price; I can think of reasons in both directions. Any more informed opinions?

It is anyone's guess - I would guess slightly positive. My hypothesis is that many shares called will cover short positions and therefore not hit the market. On the other hand, we may have writers of covered calls looking to buy after having had their shares called away from them.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I'm not very familiar with how to tell the difference, but these 7-10 percent jumps seem more like new buyers coming in, and maybe some short covering blips due to margin calls, rather than a short squeeze. Is there a way to see how short interest has changed over the past week?

 

[avatar]

I'm not very familiar with how to tell the difference, but these 7-10 percent jumps seem more like new buyers coming in, and maybe some short covering blips due to margin calls, rather than a short squeeze. Is there a way to see how short interest has changed over the past week?

lol. You are new here right?

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Just did a quick search and found this website. If this is accurate, short interest is still 41%, and this rally could have legs. Interactive Charts

 

[deonb]

If this website is accurate, short interest is still 41%. Interactive Charts

I'm not buying a drop in short interest from 41% to 24% on May 3rd... given a 4 million overall volume.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Never mind. The chart is showing the percent of daily volume that is short covering.

 

[Norbert]

Never mind. The chart is showing the percent of daily volume that is short covering.

The former. And AFAIK you can't even tell which way it's going (buy or sell or buy+sell or buy-sell). Which is why that website isn't quoted here very often.