Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[JRP3]

That's my assumption, it's already a known quantity. Not sure it was necessary to delay the SC announcement.

 

[aznt1217]

That's my assumption, it's already a known quantity. Not sure it was necessary to delay the SC announcement.

I don't think it was a choice. Knowing the management team at Tesla these guys are intensely focused on things and make sure they can do everything right. I'm sure the majority of energy is focused on this loan payment which wasn't a goal 2-3 weeks ago.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Looks like we are on the fast track to what I'm going to call "awesome buy in territory."

I'm glad I sold a couple options yesteraday and have some cash on hand to buy more with. I'm wishing I had sold more but if it had gone up today I would have been wishing I had not sold any, haha. Dollar cost averaging, whether selling or buying, is the way I like to play.

 

[kenliles]

I'm guessing that signals a fill of the offering and the we're back to a price float.

 

[SteveG3]

Guessing his tweet is not having an effect today. I would have thought that actually paying off the DOE loan would have had a positive effect. Maybe tomorrow?

If it's simply a press release probably little impact. If Elon does this via a conference call (or any manner where he is talking live) easier to see that positive effect, isn't it. Any time Elon is talking he is likely to go off topic, including teasing the next announcements.

 

[toastypasta]

I'm guessing the new cash in the business has an effect on the announcement.
Maybe quantity of completed or soon to be completed super chargers increases dramatically or something like that.

 

[Norbert]

At 10:16 am EDT, there was a trade of about 5 million shares, for about $430 million. Probably not a coincidence that this is about the DOE loan amount, minus the already paid off part, IIRC.

 

[kumar]

So does this mean guys that the price might go back up a bit.
It has been taking a beating today.

 

[ckessel]

So does this mean guys that the price might go back up a bit.
It has been taking a beating today.

We've basically been +/- 5% of $90 for a week barring some fleeting spikes. I'm pretty damn happy to see it fairly stable at this valuation

 

[mitch672]

So does this mean guys that the price might go back up a bit.
It has been taking a beating today.

Guessing the direction of TSLA is impossible to predict, but if 5 million shares are suddenly sold, yeah, that depresses the price until that inventory is sold. I was thinking of adding a few hundred shares.

 

[kumar]

Yeah so being stable at this valuation tells us that the stock is less likely to tank, but what is the story behind the short sellers, can they do something to actually cause a spike?

 

[FredTMC]

Guessing the direction of TSLA is impossible to predict, but if 5 million shares are suddenly sold, yeah, that depresses the price until that inventory is sold. I was thinking of adding a few hundred shares.

Not sure if this was already posted or not:

Dir Ehrenpreis sells 793,290 shares @ 90.91 value is $72m from 5/17-5/20

I'd like a comment from TM on this. Not cool

 

[AudubonB]

I am very surprised that a director's trades appear so quickly. It certainly used to be​ the case insider activity wasn't available from SEC filings for a good long time after the fact.

 

[Grendal]

Not sure if this was already posted or not:

Dir Ehrenpreis sells 793,290 shares @ 90.91 value is $72m from 5/17-5/20

I'd like a comment from TM on this. Not cool

750K shares is what caused the dip in price.

 

[mitch672]

Not sure if this was already posted or not:

Dir Ehrenpreis sells 793,290 shares @ 90.91 value is $72m from 5/17-5/20

I'd like a comment from TM on this. Not cool

Maybe he needed a new house . Remember the guys from apple and microsoft with $100,000 snowblowers or $1,000,000 Ferarri's, this could end up being a billion dollar house for him

 

[FredTMC]

I am very surprised that a director's trades appear so quickly. It certainly used to be​ the case insider activity wasn't available from SEC filings for a good long time after the fact.

Was thru "Form 4" with the SEC and reported thru Dow Jones Newswires at 5/20 21:11EST

 

[AudubonB]

I see from this: Tesla Motors - Statement of Changes of Beneficial Ownership that the trades FredTMC mentions were owned in Ehrenpreis's venture capital fund. In general, it's hard to fault the manager of a fund for taking advantage of significant price appreciation in a portfolio position. That's what a venture cap fund is all about.

153,250 on 5/17 @ $91.41
640.040 on 5/20 @ $90.79

I didn't look to see what his various funds' total position in TSLA is or has been.

On edit: those two trades took that fund's position down to -0- shares remaining.

 

[Grendal]

Not sure if this was already posted or not:

Dir Ehrenpreis sells 793,290 shares @ 90.91 value is $72m from 5/17-5/20

I'd like a comment from TM on this. Not cool

He picked up those shares in an indirect purchase on March 14th.

TSLA Insider Transactions | Tesla Motors, Inc. Stock - Yahoo! Finance

 

[vfx]

That's my assumption, it's already a known quantity. Not sure it was necessary to delay the SC announcement.

I think the point is to stagger announcements. More press bang for the buck.

 

[avatar]

Folks should not lose sight of the big picture. There is a clear fundamental case for TSLA stock to be valued at $80 - $130 with current known future cashflows. This is your outer bound trading range. This year is going to be epic for Tesla with all the cash they just made. I am certain that Elon is going to dramatically accelerate the gen 3 schedule. It is quite possible we will see gen3 in 1 - 2 years vs. 3 - 4 years as we had been led to believe earlier - maybe even next year. $600 million in cash is one hell of a war chest. He will use the money to build a defensive moat around Tesla that will be very difficult to breach. The combination of the supercharger network, this new battery swapping capability means that you could build a gen3 car with less fully charged range than otherwise possible. Think about it, lets say Tesla produced a Gen3 vehicle with 150 mile range and just used the war chest to triple the density of super chargers in the US. The net effect is the same. I would not care about the 150 mile range on the car if a super charger existed near everywhere. This way you don't have to wait for the battery tech to catch up to the vehicle tech. Just run with what you have and increase adoption of electric vehicles. It will create a powerful virtuous cycle.

Elon has a very unique window of opportunity here to leap frog the current industry. GEN3 vehicle in 2014 with unconditional battery warranty for life and superchargers everywhere. That is your formula for accelerating the schedule.