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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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It's totally out of control, if I didn't know any better I'd short it or buy a put, but I do know better, and I won't take a position to the downside... It might never happen, or, as it did when the stock was in the $90-92 range and dropped to $85-86 for a day, buyers come in to scoop it up. There is no telling how high the TSLA "shiny object" will go now that it's wall streets latest "must have"

Tulip Mania: Tulip mania - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
It's totally out of control, if I didn't know any better I'd short it or buy a put, but I do know better, and I won't take a position to the downside... It might never happen, or, as it did when the stock was in the $90-92 range and dropped to $85-86 for a day, buyers come in to scoop it up. There is no telling how high the TSLA "shiny object" will go now that it's wall streets latest "must have"

Tulip Mania: Tulip mania - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Well, as a short term swing trade it may be a great play still. I can see TSLA hitting $120 - $130 in the coming weeks, especially with Musk's 2 announcements coming forth and who knows whatever other positive news. It might be worth a risk getting some margin and pilling on for a couple weeks here for a nice short term trade.

There are simply a lot of buyers right now. Shorts and longs.
 
No but keep an eye out for the livebloggers and tweets from the D conference tomorrow night when Elon's on stage. I still don't think Tesla should make any official announcements there instead of the usual conf call, but we might find out *when* the announcement's going to be at least. And if Walt and Kara do their job, we'll get some other tidbits of new news.
 
Looks like my post count is at 100 now too. Yay, I'm celebrating with TSLA!

I'm not selling my stock, period. I'm eyeing my options though...They expire JAN 14 and Jan15. I think I'm going to dump the Jan14 ones if it goes over 120, no need to be a pig (unless I'm a pig already, hahaha).

I also only have JAN14 and JAN15 options right now.
If we hit 120 though i'm going to roll the J14 to J15 and just sit on them.
 
Well, as a short term swing trade it may be a great play still. I can see TSLA hitting $120 - $130 in the coming weeks, especially with Musk's 2 announcements coming forth and who knows whatever other positive news. It might be worth a risk getting some margin and pilling on for a couple weeks here for a nice short term trade.

There are simply a lot of buyers right now. Shorts and longs.

Yeah I'm good with my long position, I did sell a few Dec21 $70 naked PUTs to make a little bit of cash (and they went down $1 today, which is the direction I want to see), or I'm ok with buying TSLA at $61.20 (got $8.20 last week). Maybe a few more naked PUTs, but you need to have the margin availble and think of it as buying Tesla at a discount (worst case)... Naked puts are certainly more reasonable than calls at these lofty prices.
 
It's totally out of control, if I didn't know any better I'd short it or buy a put, but I do know better, and I won't take a position to the downside... It might never happen, or, as it did when the stock was in the $90-92 range and dropped to $85-86 for a day, buyers come in to scoop it up. There is no telling how high the TSLA "shiny object" will go now that it's wall streets latest "must have" Tulip Mania: Tulip mania - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
There's another well heeled advice that have saved me countless time from financial pain. Never short the sector leader. In green energy/ev it is TSLA.
 
FWIW, I was at a Schwab technical seminar last week, and as we looked at the TSLA chart with the ex-trader giving the class, he identified a Pennant pattern that was starting to form. The Schwab charting tool is now showing this as a confirmed bullish trend with a short-term target price range of $127-$136. Here's the chart:

Screen Shot 2013-05-28 at 5.10.29 PM.png


All the important characteristics appear to be in place, including the increase in volume on the initial move up (the mast), the decrease in volume during the zig-zag Pennant formation, then an increase in volume after the breakout. The theory is that the second leg of the move should equal the height of the mast.

This gave me the confidence to hold on for now, but if you believe the theory, it's almost time to take profits. Don't blame me if it doesn't work out like this though ;-)
 
Supply and demand.

Demand: While I sit here typing on my keyboard, Tesla is deliverying more and more cars. These owners take delivery and could possibly love the car so much they buy the stock. This is a continuous and endless stream. Add to that the neighbor effect - the neighbors see the new car, wonder about it, search for it, are intrigued by it, can't afford it (or order one), and consider buying the stock. This is also a continuous stream as long as Tesla keeps deliverying cars (since there is no advertising present except for this word of mouth.) Over the long weekend, people get together and talk - likely about what they want to talk about and for many people this might include their new car (Tesla) and how their stock is giving such a great return. Convinced people in turn buy the car / stock come Tuesday. In the process, Multiple news outlets keep regurgitating the stories about Tesla paying back the loan, the kindergartenders fitting into the car, the Goldman Sachs visit of the factory, and various other news that keeps the brand in the consciousness of the retail/instituitional investors. Many are adding to their positions seeing the meteoric rise, etc. etc. etc.

Supply: While I sit here still typing away on my keyboard, the total number of shares doesn't change. We're done with the share offer so whatever you can buy comes from others who are willing to sell - at a profit.

Increaming demand with no increase in supply invariably only leads to..... the price of the stock increasing.

This describes my situation perfectly.
I'm a middle-class guy with middle-class friends, but I've always spent a bigger allocation of my income on cars than I really should (Tesla almost twice as expensive as any other car I've driven) but I loved the car and the mythos of Elon enough to change my self-directed IRA to all-in TSLA back in March. Talked to my wife about investing some of her savings in TSLA. In turn, she talked to her friend who trades some stock on the side to get a second opinion. That person also gets interested and invests a sizable chunk... My friend who works for New York Life was trying to get me to put everything into mutual funds kept telling me don't do it, and yesterday he finally text me and said "I hate to say it, but you were right. So very right on this one."
Every opportunity I get I talk about the car, Elon, and the stock if it gets that far. TSLA has built a pretty passionate base and a fantastic car. No better advertising than that.
That being said, the stock is in nosebleed territory for me as I was hoping to buy back in the half of my position I sold at 94 a couple of weeks ago. If it got to 83 I was going to do it, but I don't think we're going to see that anymore. Oh well, first world problems...
 
I think TSLA's market cap surpassed that of Porsche today?!? TSLA: 12.75B, PORSCHE AUTOMOBIL HG: 12.37B

Actually yahoo/google haven't updated the number of common shares since the secondary offering. They say 115.55m shares but you need to add 3.4m shares from the common offering. So, 118.95m common shares x 110.33 (today's closing) = $13.12 billion market cap.

Wow, it's hard to believe.
 
Something is really wrong. I am very bullish and my own models predict a fundamental basis for TSLA to trade between $80 - $130. This is over the entire year though. This current run up in price has me astonished. I am not convinced it is sustainable. All I can say is that new investors at this price should be wary. However the long term basis for TSLA at this price is totally fine. If your horizon is 2 - 3 years, $110 for a share of TSLA is a bargain. I am not sure this will last over the next month though.
 
Yep - the tool gives a target price range of $127-$136, based on the start of the pattern at around $60, the Pennant in the mid-$90's, so a mast height of around $35 or so. What do you think - do you guys agree?

I don't believe any kind of charting applies to TSLA right now but then again I know little about it overall - especially this kind. I do, however, agree with that short term price exactly. The pushes up on higher volume are almost always great indicators. People want this stock and it's a self fulling prophecy. For now.
 
I don't believe any kind of charting applies to TSLA right now but then again I know little about it overall - especially this kind. I do, however, agree with that short term price exactly. The pushes up on higher volume are almost always great indicators. People want this stock and it's a self fulling prophecy. For now.


Warning: Stock Charting == Pseudoscience == Snake Oil Salesmanship

:tongue:
 
I just sold half my shares for $111 - bought at $27.50. Only held them for 9 months in my taxable account so the taxes are going to be horrible. But I am not financially savvy at all, and all I know is that the stock is where I dreamed it would be a year from now, and it's time to take some profits. Will probably be kicking myself in 3 months when it would have been a long term gain, but I'm not smart enough or have enough time to sit and watch TSLA and try to time it. Happy with what I've made so far!
 
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