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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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ShortSlaver
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If I was looking to build a position I would probably at the very least pickup a part of that position now. I wouldn't say this stock is out of the woods yet - tomorrow could be another 5% drop, for instance. But, I'd pick up a bit now if trying to build.
Some of the cars they are producing right now are probably being put on shipping transport for delivery to Europe, so even though the VIN #'s we track here at TMC indicate numbers higher than the auto sales report, a portion of those VIN's are not booked as sales because they are probably in transport and won't be 'sold' until around European delivery time. I'm not sure how long it takes to get cars to Europe and ready to deliver from the United States, but I think I recall a time frame of about 6 weeks or so.
The beauty of info like the number Phil put out is that the casual investor that might consider shorting the stock doesn't understand all the dynamics in play and might misinterpret the lower than expected number as an indication that Tesla sales are slipping. All the better for us who know the company inside and out and know that the reported number is not low and that Tesla is selling every car it can and producing at about 500 cars a week.
I just want to say I absolutely LOVE people who short Tesla. I encourage everyone to do it as it facilitates an enormous wealth transfer to me. You might as well just wire me the money. Shorters do two things:
1 - By triggering selling activity they lower the price now so that I can pick up shares on the cheap.
2 - Their delusion causes panic and massive squeezes like what we saw after the earnings call - i.e. giant wealth transfer to me.
Love it. Please please short TSLA. Billions of billions of dollars please. I need the money.
1 - By triggering selling activity they lower the price now so that I can pick up shares on the cheap.
2 - Their delusion causes panic and massive squeezes like what we saw after the earnings call - i.e. giant wealth transfer to me.
Love it. Please please short TSLA. Billions of billions of dollars please. I need the money.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Not surprised actually. This is how hedge funds short a stock. Like I said before, if they made an effort to publish an article on Zero Hedge, it is no longer a conspiracy theory, but an actual willful act. What confirms this theory is the SA article written by a Hedge Fund manager. They even stopped hiding their identities.
An article in Forbes today compares the TSLA share price with that of GM during 1911-1915: Tesla Stock Today Looking A Lot Like General Motors In 1915 - Forbes
It is argued that the TSLA price movement in 2013 is similar to that of GM in 1914. GM's big move came in 1915.
It is argued that the TSLA price movement in 2013 is similar to that of GM in 1914. GM's big move came in 1915.
Good article though GM owned the market and 100 years ago it was way more difficult to technologically catch up.
ShortSlaver
Member
IT helps explain the rapid decline over the last 4 trading days. We went from a very small short percentage on Tuesday last week up to almost 30% as of today. With that much false selling going on it has triggered plenty of stop losses creating the tumble. The only problem for the shorts is that it isn't a novel idea - they're all going to have to buy back and it's a game of chicken to see when it starts to begin.
We may have a bit of a ways down still, but if there's anything good in the share holder meeting tomorrow (I doubt there will be) expect a panic short covering. Again.
If we get below $90 tomorrow I'm considering some July call options.
It would make sense that a lot of shorts re-entered. The stock went from an all-time high of $114.90 last Wednesday to $88.25 today (that's a 23.2% drop in four days).
I'm not quite sure what you mean by "GM owned the market". In 1914 Ford sold about 300,000 cars and GM less than 10,000. Ford had the huge technological and sales lead, but GM overtook them by the end of the 1920s.
ShortSlaver
Member
Right, with a lot of that due to short selling. Wednesday it was speculated a hedge fund took out a massive short position which rattled the stock causing stop limit chain reactions and more short sellers, giving the situation we are in right now. There are still almost 30% (compared to 5% when it $110) of the float in a short position which means any sort of upward trend may be amplified due to just as large a rush of buyers.
Massive shorting of an equity in a short period of time ( 25% more in a few days qualifies) is going to create massive downward pressure.
I'm not saying this thing is going up, but it's in a position to be squeezed hard. The smart short money will be out as soon as we see sideways or upward trending. That could leave a lot of far weaker hands scrambling to cover.
If I'm looking to reenter a long TSLA position I might not go whole hog right now. But I'm picking up some of that position and watching carefully.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
3 articles on zerohedge in 1 week. Boy, Elon must've pissed off a big hedge fund. I think this is going to turn into silicon valley vs wall street movie.
mitch672
Active Member
I work for a company that provides outsourced IT to hedge funds (not proud of that, but it's a living), these guys don't like to lose, I'm betting several large funds took a bath and where forced to cover, they probably where smacking their lips as it topped $110, I'm betting they shorted again, because, you know, it's never going to top that anytime soon.. Odd behavior, for guys who think they are "the smartest people in the room" (most of these traders are major d-bags). Let's see how smart they really are, because they've made other people (longs) wealthy so far
Of course I can't talk about stocks or anything related to it with them. If I get a chance and the subject of my car ever comes up, I'll just say "Tesla Model S, ever heard of it?"
rolosrevenge
Dr. EVS
Well I still hope it drops to the low 80s before rising again, I'd love to pick up some more.
ShortSlaver
Member
I work for a company that provides outsourced IT to hedge funds (not proud of that, but it's a living), these guys don't like to lose, I'm betting several large funds took a bath and where forced to cover, they probably where smacking their lips as it topped $110, I'm betting they shorted again, because, you know, it's never going to top that anytime soon.. Odd behavior, for guys who think they are "the smartest people in the room" (most of these traders are major d-bags). Let's see how smart they really are, because they've made other people (longs) wealthy so far
They're going to try as hard as they can. Everyone hates to lose, the difference is when these types of funds collude they have enough capital to manipulate a market to get their way. There's been billions of dollars shorted the last few days and it isn't all retail. I expect them to drive it as far as they can and buy their short positions back leaving the many retail shorts behind them holding the bag. I'd love to see a couple more of these funds go down because of their insolvency as has recently happened.
I love if Elon has some surprise news to turn them on their heads.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
What I don't like is that they are mostly using our research here on this forum and twisting it a bit to suit their arguments against TSLA. Making me hesitant to publish my fundamental analysis. I have yet to see a short argument that is an original research conducted by their own firm. That and sound arguments in the research will change my mind. BTW logged into mu brokerage's chat room. Sounds like everyone shorted TSLA following the chatroom leader's footstep.
deonb
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