Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[Bgarret]

What kind of dollar amt of options are some holding into earnings?

Sorry, in retrospect thought $ amounts were a bit gauche. Can mod delete any re-posts. Meant to say that due to great help from luv2b, cap op, Julian, and Sal Demir, to name a few...I have been fortunate enough to increase my investment since May by 10x, have already extracted some cash and paid estimated taxes and now have remaining in short + long options and stock for 2q earnings.

I have an exit strategy, but this pre-earnings run up is testing my resolve.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

What kind of dollar amt of options are some holding into earnings?

All of it...except the part that is my long term hold stock and the options I sold to pay for the downpayment for my Model S...

The question for me is how much will be in short term calls and how much will be in long term calls and should I buy any puts...Many questions that I will answer depending on what happens over the next week.

 

[NuclearPowered]

Approx $10k or so.

Not as much as everyone else it seems, if we beat big on earnings, half of this forum membership will be able to retire early. :tongue:

 

[aznt1217]

Started with $25k in May, currently holding $250k in options into earnings...

Wow that's phenomenal. I wish I had the gonads to do options. Straight up common shares for me.

 

[Clprenz]

I hope it falls some more! hahaha I want morreeee

 

[blakegallagher]

I am split almost 50/50 on stock/options into earnings call ... although if it heads up another 5/10 bucks I will start trimming some of my options ...I had a higher percentage in stock but on the GS upgrade I sold 100 shares and picked up a few more options to take advantage of that spike .

 

[Jack6591]

There are moments in everyone's life, when they have to man-up/ma'am-up. Fortune favors the bold. Look into the mirror, and ask yourself, have you ever had another moment in your life like this? The decision you make now could change the world. I am all in. Are you?

 

[austinEV]

Look at a chart going into Q1 announcement. There was a very nice little run-up. And that was when everyone thought TSLA was a loser stock. This time many more people are going to remember and not want to miss the boat. I expect another run-up. When I get nervous is when it ends up 20% PRIOR to announcement. Of course, I have a feeling Elon will put some goodies in the announcement so that it will at least be a "green" day.

 

[ppl]

Look at a chart going into Q1 announcement. There was a very nice little run-up. And that was when everyone thought TSLA was a loser stock. This time many more people are going to remember and not want to miss the boat. I expect another run-up. When I get nervous is when it ends up 20% PRIOR to announcement. Of course, I have a feeling Elon will put some goodies in the announcement so that it will at least be a "green" day.

I agree but I can remember the 4th qtr report and a similar run up but low margins to slaughter. I don't think it will happen this time but can't help but be nervous

 

[fjm9898]

I am waiting for Wednesday to come to pass. If there is no catalyst to move the TSLA stock that day, the Fed confirming tapering will cause a large market pullback and take TSLA with it.
Or extending the bond buys will be a market buy day.

 

[gym7rjm]

Started with about 50% of my portfolio in Tesla, now I'm about 80% in. Of my Tesla position, I have about 35% in options. Of my options, most are leaps, but I do have Aug 160's and Sep 160's that I bought on the dip. I'm up about 200% on the Aug 160's and my original intention was to hold through earnings, but since the run up I'm not quite sure what to do. I was thinking to sell that and then wait for a pull back before earnings to go back in on some weekly options.

How are other people dealing with the run up for their short term options plan? And what short term options ideas might you consider for earnings?

 

[AudubonB]

With the understanding that this thread is ostensibly about short-term movements in this company's share price...but it really isn't, it's a lot more than that -

a question to those of you who are speculators rather than investors (that is, playing around with options not as a derivative to hedge your investment, but purely for the high-octane leverage that buying calls or selling puts provides you): WHAT are you going to do when TSLA reaches market parity - that is, becomes appropriately priced to current corporate status? WHO amongst you is going to be wise enough to follow the sage investment advice of one of history's greatest investors, when asked how he became so wealthy: "I sold too soon".

To read the above in another light, I am astonished - and aghast - at the numbers of you who are playing in the derivatives market. Sure, you're picking up staggering amount of paper wealth...but do you know when to quit? Few addicts do.

In the interest of full disclosure, the single largest position in my equity portfolio is TSLA; SCTY is #2. Both of them also represent the 2nd and 3rd largest $ values I've ever held in a single company, after only Starbucks, which I held since the IPO for many, many years, and still retain a nice chunk. Both also collectively represent 13% of my portfolio, based on today's closing prices. Future good fortune for those stocks will make me a tidy sum....but if there is a collapse, I'll not be left shirtless. I wish you all well....but fear for your inability to jump off the dragon.

 

[pGo]

Wise words. I keep reminding myself to be awake and not take huge risk that I cannot afford to lose. Thanks for a reminder.

 

[toastypasta]

idk i started with 4k and turned it in to 30k pretty fast with options but only in leaps. then played with about 2-4k at a time on shorter term stuff.
Have about 10k in leaps and then 2k in august calls basically a 100% pure gamble that i may lose in a minute or may double. just for fun i guess.
Is this fun yes. Is it risky. 100%.
I'm getting married thursday. Used to have about 90% of my net worth in the market in various stocks but by tomorrow i'll be pretty much out besides this tesla stuff. Life and lifestyle changes bring changes in investment style.
If this were a year ago, i'd have started with 20k and not 4k in TSLA leaps and instead of making 30k i'd have made 150k but life changes and usually it's better to be safe than sorry. Would hate to lose it all in a day.

 

[blakegallagher]

Started with about 50% of my portfolio in Tesla, now I'm about 80% in. Of my Tesla position, I have about 65% in options. Of my options, most are leaps, but I do have Aug 160's and Sep 160's that I bought on the dip. I'm up about 200% on the Aug 160's and my original intention was to hold through earnings, but since the run up I'm not quite sure what to do. I was thinking to sell that and then wait for a pull back before earnings to go back in on some weekly options.

How are other people dealing with the run up for their short term options plan? And what short term options ideas might you consider for earnings?

I will consider selling some if it goes up much more. I think I will play next earnings report with some deep out of the money calls like that .... I have been missing that opportunity

 

[clmason]

With a Long stock positition as a core, I'm poised for tsunami part 2 with calls. I'm holding August calls through earnings. Will resist temptation to sell too soon, though it may drive me mad! :scared:

 

[Acmykguy]

idk i started with 4k and turned it in to 30k pretty fast with options but only in leaps. then played with about 2-4k at a time on shorter term stuff.
Have about 10k in leaps and then 2k in august calls basically a 100% pure gamble that i may lose in a minute or may double. just for fun i guess.
Is this fun yes. Is it risky. 100%.
I'm getting married thursday. Used to have about 90% of my net worth in the market in various stocks but by tomorrow i'll be pretty much out besides this tesla stuff. Life and lifestyle changes bring changes in investment style.
If this were a year ago, i'd have started with 20k and not 4k in TSLA leaps and instead of making 30k i'd have made 150k but life changes and usually it's better to be safe than sorry. Would hate to lose it all in a day.

At teslive there we had a round table discussion over this. Some had small amounts say 1000 bucks others bet the farm with hundreds. Of thousands Some he lost big and others made big. I guess it was more of a rhetorical question to have everyone stop and think. The derivatives "game" can be rewarding but flip side painful. We all seem to think 2q will be great, I just would hate to see anyone here. Get slammed in the. Options market Bc they were to heavily weighted one way. Lets not all be "pigs greed wise Bc pigs always get slaughtered".

 

[ShortSlaver]

At tea live there we had a round table discussion over this. Some had small amounts say 1000 bucks others bet the farm with hundreds. Of thousands Some he lost big and others made big. I guess it was more of a rhetorical question to have everyone stop and think. The derivatives "game" can be rewarding but flip side painful. We all seem to think 2q will be great, I just would hate to see anyone here. Get slammed in the. Options market Bc they were to heavily weighted one way. Lets not all be "pigs greed wise Bc pigs always get slaughtered".

Everyone needs to manage their money and risk. However, not taking advantage of this TSLA bull the last few months in a variety of ways would be horrible too. I know plenty of us have booked enough profits that the risk is very manageable at this point. I, for one, am not just doubling down every time.

 

[DonPedro]

With the understanding that this thread is ostensibly about short-term movements in this company's share price...but it really isn't, it's a lot more than that -

a question to those of you who are speculators rather than investors (that is, playing around with options not as a derivative to hedge your investment, but purely for the high-octane leverage that buying calls or selling puts provides you): WHAT are you going to do when TSLA reaches market parity - that is, becomes appropriately priced to current corporate status? WHO amongst you is going to be wise enough to follow the sage investment advice of one of history's greatest investors, when asked how he became so wealthy: "I sold too soon".

To read the above in another light, I am astonished - and aghast - at the numbers of you who are playing in the derivatives market. Sure, you're picking up staggering amount of paper wealth...but do you know when to quit? Few addicts do.

In the interest of full disclosure, the single largest position in my equity portfolio is TSLA; SCTY is #2. Both of them also represent the 2nd and 3rd largest $ values I've ever held in a single company, after only Starbucks, which I held since the IPO for many, many years, and still retain a nice chunk. Both also collectively represent 13% of my portfolio, based on today's closing prices. Future good fortune for those stocks will make me a tidy sum....but if there is a collapse, I'll not be left shirtless. I wish you all well....but fear for your inability to jump off the dragon.

A very important question. Tesla has quadrupled the past 4 months, and anyone who has played around with bullish option strategies will feel like Gordon Gekko at this stage. The natural response will be to pile on more risk and even more bullish strategies. However, as AudobonB points out, at some price point TSLA will be correctly priced, and above that it will be over-priced. Anyone with extremely bullish leveraged positions will then be at great risk.

Furthermore, the general market may hold a lot of risk right now. My doomsday scenario starts with some kind of trigger event that leads to a dramatic "back-to-earth" experience in the stock market. I think this is a matter of "when", not "if" (read the link at the start of the paragraph, and maybe some other posts on Zerohedge). With the markets crashing there is a flight to "safe" investments. Tesla gets at double hit: First of all, it tanks because it is priced just on expectations and not on so-called fundamentals. Second, investors also downgrade the expectations, due to concerns about the effects of the crash on demand for the cars.

We could see $60-80 in a few weeks, even if Elon Musk and his team keep doing the fabulous job they are doing.

I am long TSLA for a sum that is a huge investment for me. But this is to buy and hold, and I can stick with it through a dip to $60/share. It might be wise to check if you can live with that kind of dip...

 

[deonb]

A very important question. Tesla has quadrupled the past 4 months, and anyone who has played around with bullish option strategies will feel like Gordon Gekko at this stage. The natural response will be to pile on more risk and even more bullish strategies. However, as AudobonB points out, at some price point TSLA will be correctly priced, and above that it will be over-priced. Anyone with extremely bullish leveraged positions will then be at great risk.

Furthermore, the general market may hold a lot of risk right now. My doomsday scenario starts with some kind of trigger event that leads to a dramatic "back-to-earth" experience in the stock market. I think this is a matter of "when", not "if" (read the link at the start of the paragraph, and maybe some other posts on Zerohedge). With the markets crashing there is a flight to "safe" investments. Tesla gets at double hit: First of all, it tanks because it is priced just on expectations and not on so-called fundamentals. Second, investors also downgrade the expectations, due to concerns about the effects of the crash on demand for the cars.

We could see $60-80 in a few weeks, even if Elon Musk and his team keep doing the fabulous job they are doing.

I am long TSLA for a sum that is a huge investment for me. But this is to buy and hold, and I can stick with it through a dip to $60/share. It might be wise to check if you can live with that kind of dip...

Options aren't just about trading in upswing. It's about trading in high volatility, and it goes both ways. At this point $60 would actually net me more than $160, AND it means I get to convert those puts to TSLA shares at $60. Heck, it's the dream scenario, not the doomsday scenario. (And I'm not a bear, that's just my 20% insurance - it's just that's we're much closer to $160 than to $60 at this point, so it's a much more valuable swing).

The real doomsday scenario is Tesla abruptly settling down on a price and entering into a narrow MSFT-like trading range for the next 5 years. That will wipe me out (for a definition of wipeout meaning kicking me back to the ~5000% gains that I already diversified into other things).