Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[TSLAopt]

An email arrived about half an hour ago from Tesla Motors. It invites me to test drive a Model S at one of three Chicagoland locations. The one actually in the city appears to be a recent addition. I know they had been advertising for a sales manager there. The test drive would last 20 minutes with the accompaniment of a Tesla representative. Up to three friends could ride in the back seat.

I'd love to own a Model S. I could buy a number of them with my TSLA profits this year. But I live in a highrise building and park in a municipal garage across the street. It has no charging outlets.

you have to test drive it Curt. Once you test drive it i think you will do everything you can to get that municipal building to add a charging outlet, even if you have to pay them to do it. There must be some way if you foot the bill the same way the rest of us foot the bill to put one in our house garages.

 

[MikeC]

you have to test drive it Curt. Once you test drive it i think you will do everything you can to get that municipal building to add a charging outlet, even if you have to pay them to do it. There must be some way if you foot the bill the same way the rest of us foot the bill to put one in our house garages.

Or you could move. Seriously, for all your contributions here, you of all people deserve to be driving a Model S.

 

[Mycroft]

Not sure how old the info in here is, but that's a pretty large fund showing confidence in Tesla. More positives.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fidelity-contrafund-sours-apple-bolsters-173725520.html

It looks like they're one of the funds who bought TSLA at the last minute so it would show up on their EOQ prospectus.

 

[Norse]

Actually I'm not sure if the i3 is a compliance car, that's what scares me.

BMW has publically said in Norway they expect to sell over 1k cars in 2014 (and last few months of 2013). Compared to Leaf sales in Norway of above 2k cars each year (from a total yearly car sales around 110k cars). The i3 is priced about the same as a Leaf in Norway but with only space for 4 and class-worst trunk size of 200L I can't see who they will sell to.

The questionable looks aside, it has a lot less utility for a small family than a Leaf, less range than a Leaf but slightly better performance from 50-100km/h. I don't know but I guess from 0-50km/h the Leaf and i3 is pretty much the same. Compared to the MiEV which sells around 20-25% of the Leaf the i3 has about the same size, but the MiEV has suprisingly good 0-50km/h times and rear-wheel drive. And costs about 75% of the price of the i3.

So given these conditions how can the i3 sell almost half of the Leaf, is the BMW brand name worth so much compared to Nissan? I just don't get it...

Cobos

Yeah, if u buy a car like that, I dont think u care about how good the performance is from 0 to 50!

 

[augkuo]

Fidelity Contrafund sours on Apple, bolsters bet on Tesla

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/31/fidelity-apple-idUSL1N0G11ID20130731?source=email_rt_mc_body

 

[dmckinstry]

So for the concluding chapter in this worthless distraction: BMW i3 drives so poorly that Motor Trend Magazine has has seen fit to publicly rebuke BMW with the words "golf cart".

2014 BMW i3 First Drive - Motor Trend

To be completely fair, they didn't call it a "golf cart", but mentioning that term was sort of a slap to the side of the head to get BMW's attention.

Hopefully it does. I would hope with BMW's engineering history they could have done a better job with the $2B they invested in its development.

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Or you could move. Seriously, for all your contributions here, you of all people deserve to be driving a Model S.

Amen Curt.

 

[brianman]

Not sure how old the info in here is, but that's a pretty large fund showing confidence in Tesla. More positives.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fidelity-contrafund-sours-apple-bolsters-173725520.html

Good. Some of my 401k is in that fund.

 

[benfranklin]

BMW basically sunk 2 billion into a Tesla advertisement. Few events in the past year have made me more bullish about Tesla's prospects than the release of the i3. BMW is one of the few ICE makers who might have made a mass market electric that was a genuine performance vehicle and that ship has sailed, at least for the near future.

By the time the ICE manufacturers get around to making real electric cars Tesla's reputation as the gold standard for electrics will be measured in years. And why buy an electric from an ICE manufacturer when you can buy it from the manufacturer who specializes in the product?

 

[Julian Cox]

BMW basically sunk 2 billion into a Tesla advertisement. Few events in the past year have made me more bullish about Tesla's prospects than the release of the i3. BMW is one of the few ICE makers who might have made a mass market electric that was a genuine performance vehicle and that ship has sailed, at least for the near future.

By the time the ICE manufacturers get around to making real electric cars Tesla's reputation as the gold standard for electrics will be measured in years. And why buy an electric from an ICE manufacturer when you can buy it from the manufacturer who specializes in the product?

+1

BMW CEO quoted as saying that BMW new product cycle is 7 years and he is estimating 2025 for EVs to stop being a sideline.

There is of course no possibility that BMW can stick its head in the sand that long, but the window of opportunity on offer to Tesla to behave as a virtual monopoly is indeed remarkable.

 

[austinEV]

BMW basically sunk 2 billion into a Tesla advertisement. Few events in the past year have made me more bullish about Tesla's prospects than the release of the i3. BMW is one of the few ICE makers who might have made a mass market electric that was a genuine performance vehicle and that ship has sailed, at least for the near future.

By the time the ICE manufacturers get around to making real electric cars Tesla's reputation as the gold standard for electrics will be measured in years. And why buy an electric from an ICE manufacturer when you can buy it from the manufacturer who specializes in the product?

Yeah, until this news event happened I hadn't really come to terms with how much I was dreading the first "Majors'" EV. This event raises the intrinsic stock value in a very real way.

 

[Cattledog]

Absolutely! It's like the other manufacturers are the European nations standing on the dock wishing the Dutch East India Company well as they sail off to a 200 year domination of Asian trade.

At Teslive, Elon seemed slightly incredulous that no other car companies were coming up with compelling EVs. It was sort of like he was thinking, "We did the hard part, we proved it could be done, for $100,000 you can buy one, rip it apart and see how we did it for 1/100th of 1% of our investment. What more do you want? You want us to make them for you?"

While I love that his heart wants EVs adopted and is cool with others making them, I think because no one is doing it he really wants to stick it to them. It's a sign they still don't believe. Well, we believe! That's why I'd love to see them grab another $1B through another secondary, and make the Gen3 into their Apollo program. Do it Tesla!

+1

BMW CEO quoted as saying that BMW new product cycle is 7 years and he is estimating 2025 for EVs to stop being a sideline.

There is of course no possibility that BMW can stick its head in the sand that long, but the window of opportunity on offer to Tesla to behave as a virtual monopoly is indeed remarkable.

 

[RABaby]

Absolutely! It's like the other manufacturers are the European nations standing on the dock wishing the Dutch East India Company well as they sail off to a 200 year domination of Asian trade.

At Teslive, Elon seemed slightly incredulous that no other car companies were coming up with compelling EVs. It was sort of like he was thinking, "We did the hard part, we proved it could be done, for $100,000 you can buy one, rip it apart and see how we did it for 1/100th of 1% of our investment. What more do you want? You want us to make them for you?"

While I love that his heart wants EVs adopted and is cool with others making them, I think because no one is doing it he really wants to stick it to them. It's a sign they still don't believe. Well, we believe! That's why I'd love to see them grab another $1B through another secondary, and make the Gen3 into their Apollo program. Do it Tesla!

All Tesla has to do is unveil the Tesla Truck with 400 mile range, 4 wheel drive, and customer option swap out rear boxes (regular bed, dump, camper, ??) and it will decimate the most popular and profitable segment of the American auto industry. There are many arguments to support the development of a truck over the model X as well as the Gen 3 and trucks could easily prove to be the most profitable segment.

Maybe Elon has the truck in development right now and just as the stock price shows any lag, he will unveil it. If he does, and the price is in the $70-$80k range, the stock price will pass $300 before the end of the first trading day after the "bomb" is dropped.

 

[30seconds]

Model X. Definitely between Model S and X, Tesla is taking out BMW's most profitable (probably - not sure here) franchise - 5 series, X5, 6 series and 7 series are all on the same platform.

 

[InTheShadows]

All Tesla has to do is unveil the Tesla Truck with 400 mile range, 4 wheel drive, and customer option swap out rear boxes (regular bed, dump, camper, ??) and it will decimate the most popular and profitable segment of the American auto industry. There are many arguments to support the development of a truck over the model X as well as the Gen 3 and trucks could easily prove to be the most profitable segment.

Maybe Elon has the truck in development right now and just as the stock price shows any lag, he will unveil it. If he does, and the price is in the $70-$80k range, the stock price will pass $300 before the end of the first trading day after the "bomb" is dropped.

The only problem with that is towing something that isn't even close to aerodynamic with 4 extra tires weighing 10-14k lbs. Those of us that use a truck as a truck would need a 400kw battery pack and some kind of super cooling system on the motors. I would love to see it but that is still a very long way off.

 

[toastypasta]

My friend just got an email asking if he would like to put down a deposit because options will be going up in price significantly after midnight tonight.
Interesting...

(he did a test drive but didn't put deposit down so sales guy emailed him)

 

[austinEV]

My friend just got an email asking if he would like to put down a deposit because options will be going up in price significantly after midnight tonight.
Interesting...

(he did a test drive but didn't put deposit down so sales guy emailed him)

hmmm, perhaps I will place an order as a hedge...

 

[InTheShadows]

My friend just got an email asking if he would like to put down a deposit because options will be going up in price significantly after midnight tonight.
Interesting...

(he did a test drive but didn't put deposit down so sales guy emailed him)

I just placed our order. We have until August 13th to finalize so hopefully the stock hits our PT by then.

 

[Discoducky]

What is the street expecting for earnings? And does someone have a 'by the numbers' expectation? Couldn't find it...

 

[sleepyhead]

What is the street expecting for earnings? And does someone have a 'by the numbers' expectation? Couldn't find it...

Anyone have access to capital IQ numbers? Also it would be great to know if Wall St. is going with GAAP numbers or adjusted numbers. Thanks.

 

[austinEV]

I just placed our order. We have until August 13th to finalize so hopefully the stock hits our PT by then.

Yeah, I did the same thing. If the earnings are good at all I won't have to cancel the order

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I think we have figured out how to increase Q3 sales... start a rumor on TMC that prices are going up...