Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[Johan]

Pretty much 150 was a level of technical resistance. Those that believe in the charts (i.e. 99.9% of institutions) were waiting to see if it would break 150 before making a decision. The next level of resistance is more like $160, so expect that if we break through that, a whole new round of buyers will get interested.

I know, it is weird. You'd think that if you like a company at $160 then you should like it at $140 even more. But, these guys don't care about the company, they care about the stock. That's very different. When dealing with technical analysis, you'll often see the chart tells you to wait to buy something until you see how things play out.

I've found the best way to make money in the stock market is to believe in the fundamentals, but respect the technicals. That way you buy at $140 because you believe in the company, but you know to hedge as you approach that 160 level.

As has been pointed out many times before on this thread, it doesn't really matter if you truly believe in technical analyzis as a science (that the chart can tell you where the stock is headed, basically) or if you dismiss it as snake-oil pseudo-science. As long as enough traders use technical analyzis as a way to make buy or sell decisions, we have self fullfilling prophecies: TA says buy, so people buy, and voila, the price goes up just as predicted. It's a positive feed-back loop. As you can see I don't particularily believe in TA per se, but just like Citizen-T says you must respect the technicals, since others may act upon these indicators to a great degree.

 

[Johann Koeber]

Anybody know why the option exchanges are not working?

Volume in the exchange also almost null.

It can't be a lunch break?

 

[Citizen-T]

As has been pointed out many times before on this thread, it doesn't really matter if you truly believe in technical analyzis as a science (that the chart can tell you where the stock is headed, basically) or if you dismiss it as snake-oil pseudo-science. As long as enough traders use technical analyzis as a way to make buy or sell decisions, we have self fullfilling prophecies: TA says buy, so people buy, and voila, the price goes up just as predicted. It's a positive feed-back loop. As you can see I don't particularily believe in TA per se, but just like Citizen-T says you must respect the technicals, since others may act upon these indicators to a great degree.

Exactly.

 

[Blurry_Eyed]

Anybody know why the option exchanges are not working?

Volume in the exchange also almost null.

It can't be a lunch break?

All NASDAQ options trading halted. Cnbc reports its due to a 'processor issue'. Must be a major issue to implement a complete halt.

 

[sullitf]

Anybody know why the option exchanges are not working?

Volume in the exchange also almost null.

It can't be a lunch break?

InteractiveBrokers posted a bulletin at 12/26EST that NasdaqOM, NSX, and PHLX have halted trading due to market data issues at the exchange

 

[vgrinshpun]

Regarding the timing of the crash test results explanation, Elon rarely fires single shots... I am wondering if this is just a first shot, and couple more shells are already in the barrels, just waiting for perfect timing before being fired.

All right, Shot #1 - Crash Test Press Release - fired
Shot # 2 - Reveal of planned ramp-up in production up to 40,000 annual rate by end of 2014 (CNBC LeBeau interview, timing likely sandbagged) - fired
Shot # 3 - Reveal of production prototype for Model X - in the barrel??
Shot # 4 - ???

 

[Johan]

Shot # 4 - ???

Crash the NASDAQ :tongue:

 

[justthateasy]

For a second there I was starting to think I needed to reboot everything. It's not just TSLA that's halted but most of the market. Time for some volatility!

 

[sleepyhead]

My brokerage is showing that my portfolio is down 56%. I almost got a heart attack from it, only to realize that it is because options trading (and other trading) has been halted.

 

[nursebee]

a good day to not have stop loss orders in for long term holders

 

[kevin99]

You guys are really funny. Only a few days ago when it was at $145 and several people were getting desperate on their Sep. calls. Now all of sudden it is all dejavu again.

Very strange to be halted for this long. My other position on KNDI shows me a loss of ($127,000) for the day and freaks me out.
Now let the guessing game continue, out of the gate TSLA will be ^ or \/ ?

 

[GJMcManus]

Computer malfunctions disrupted trading at U.S. exchanges today, with all three options markets run by Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. halting transactions after NYSE Arca canceled some live orders earlier.
Nasdaq said in alerts posted on its website that trading on its options exchanges had been halted amid issues at its Securities Information Processor, the feed that disseminates stock quotes.
“Due to the ongoing equity SIP issue NASDAQ (PHLX, NOM and BX Options) reccommends that firms route all open orders away,” Nasdaq said in a market-systems status update. The exchange operator recommended firms in need of assistance with canceling orders call 215-496-1571.

 

[Citizen-T]

While you wait: Teslas CEO on crash results - CNBC

 

[aznt1217]

Elon looks like he seriously needs sleep. I'm so surprised they are doing all day coverage.

 

[FreeOfPge]

NYSE taking it in stride so there will likely be little or no effect on NASDAQ traded stocks.

 

[AudubonB]

When Tesla broke the crash testing machine, it wasn't supposed to crash the NSDQ system, too.....

Anyway, just one of those pesky Long Term holders trolling around here in Shorttermville, letting you know why SOME OF US sleep, eat, walk and breathe easily. This glitch don't mean no nevermind.:tongue:

 

[TSLAopt]

Elon looks like he seriously needs sleep. I'm so surprised they are doing all day coverage.

They probably won't now due to this NAsdaq glitch...bummer. They were about to show Elons answer to how he thinks TSLA stock should be valued...I'm guessing he would say 300 per share based on the capacity of the NUMMI factory alone.

 

[marvinat0rz]

Elon looks like he seriously needs sleep. I'm so surprised they are doing all day coverage.

I was thinking that too. He should really get some rest. Burnout is as bad a condition as any; you'd probably work better on pneumonia than you do on burnout. SpaceX have the Falcon 9 V1.1 launch on Sept. 5, and they have 2-3 other launches planned for the rest of 2013. I really hope Musk consults with a doctor regularly. Doesn't seem too healthy to be working around the clock for years on end.

 

[DaveT]

newbie here. I dont quite get what's going on today. did institutions decide they would buy into tesla if the stock price goes north of 150? seems like there has been a lot of volume since we broke 150. this doesn't really make any sense to me.

150.5 was an important price level and lots of people were watching it closely. The reason being is because TSLA's breakdown/correction was put into full motion on August 12 at $150.50. TSLA gapped down to open on 8/12 at $149.43 (it previously closed at $153 the last trading day prior). During the day it hit a high of $150.50 and then broken down. It hit a low of $142.05 and ending closing the day at $147.38. It continued to break down over the next few days to close in the high 130s on 8/14 and 8/15.

So basically, TSLA broke down because there weren't any buyers above $150.5 on 8/12. So, if TSLA recovers and there are now buyers above $150.50, that means that people are now looking at the stock very bullishly and are looking for it to go much higher. Another way to look at it is imagine you bought at $150.5 on 8/12 and then it crashed to the high 130s. Today it went back up to $150.5... at that point if you're not optimistic on the stock that it's going to go higher, then you're going to try to recoup your losses and sell your stock at $150.5. But if you think it's going to go higher, then you're going to keep your stock. So at $150.5 (or near it), that's the level where the weak longs take their profits (and/or recoup their losses). So, typically a resistance level like this isn't easily broken. But when it is, it's a very strong signal that buyers want to take the stock to a new level.

The same goes with the ATH of $158.88. Imagine you bought at the high, when it goes back to the high you'll be tempted to sell and recoup your losses (that's the typical mind of a retail investor who's had their stock drop like this). So, at around $158.88 there will be a lot of profit-takers (or those recouping their losses). So typically the stock will have difficulty passing that level. But if there are a lot of buyers that think the stock is going to keep rising above the $158.88 level, then after the weak longs are washed out at $158.88 then it will likely rise to a whole new level. That's why many traders are looking at the $158.88 as a key point of resistance. If it breaks over $158.88 (for example past $159.3 or so), then that's a strong signal that there are enough buyers to take this higher. Traders will flock to the stock at that point and will add momentum to the rising price movement. This isn't flawless though as sometimes it can break through a key resistance level only to fall back later. But if the stock falters or fails to execute toward a higher price level, then traders will likely exit and/or reverse their position. So, then it will take another try for the stock to break the key resistance level.

Since all of this tends to be conceptually messy, traders tend to rely on charts and technical analysis to summarize what's going on so they can make quick trading decisions. By looking at certain charts a person experienced in technical analysis can determine various resistance levels and also key breakout price points. It's not full-proof, but it can help with the odds and those that are good at it can make some decent gains.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Doesn't seem too healthy to be working around the clock for years on end.

Elon needs a new woman in his life, how's the dating going? Anyone has the inside scoop? ...while we have nothing better to do... :biggrin: