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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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#13,202
ckessel said:
An latimes article says NHTSA says they were going to investigate regardless, that it wasn't at Tesla's request. I rather suspected that was a bit of spin from Tesla. Still good to get it done though regardless.
Feds investigate Tesla fires: Elon Musk's idea? NHTSA disputes that - latimes.com
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It seems like an obvious attempt to save face on Elon's part. Bad PR again for the long term.

If they really had wanted NHTSA to investigate, they could have said that a day or two later. No need to wait for NHTSA to actually declare an investigation. Obviously NHTSA was breathing down their neck. Tesla had to raise the suspension to reduce chances of another fire. Elon still repeating the misrepresenting statistics about ICE fires. Even though only 4% of ICE fires occur from collisions.

Elon also claimed that this could tarnish electric vehicle reputation. Thats misrepresenting as well. Only Tesla has an issue. The LEAF has had zero fires, as has the Volt. He's trying to broaden the problem to implicate all electric cars when only the Model S has this issue. Not good. Even that diminishes his statement that he's doing this to help move the industry to EVs. Trying to bring down all EVs isn't cool.
 
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#13,204
ckessel said:
An latimes article says NHTSA says they were going to investigate regardless, that it wasn't at Tesla's request. I rather suspected that was a bit of spin from Tesla. Still good to get it done though regardless.
Feds investigate Tesla fires: Elon Musk's idea? NHTSA disputes that - latimes.com
Click to expand...

Clearly Tesla contacted the NHTSA of their own accord on Friday per Elon Musk's tweet. Someone want to call him a liar?

The actual investigation was filed by the NHTSA on that Friday: http://www-odi.nhtsa.dot.gov/owners/SearchResults?searchType=ID&targetCategory=I&searchCriteria.nhtsa_ids=PE13037

It's entirely possible for both parties to be correct. That the NHTSA was 'independantly contemplating' an investigation prior to Friday, then Tesla calls and says do it, we want one, what's taking so long, blah, blah, blah. At that point the senior member calls down to whomever and says, put it writing now.
 
#13,206
There seems to be more going on in the background than we know. I am of the mind that NHSTA is contemplating an investigation but like any government agency is taking their sweet time to do it. Then TSLA call them on Friday and asked them to hurry it up.

However, there seems to be a twitter blackout for a long time, if you look at Elon's tweet: nothing nothing and then today there's a whole slew of them. The old Elon, defender of shareholder stock price. Something happened in between during the blackout and then, something got approved this morning. This could only be something ordered by the government. Whether or not big oil bribed a gov official for the order, we don't know. I just like conspiracy theories because from the recent NSA fiasco, we know they are all true.

Sadly, the delay in time meant the loss of a % of long term shareholders. Now, the base supporter has to be rebuild. I guesstimate we lost all the believers from after the Goldman secondary offer.
 
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#13,207
Causalien said:
There seems to be more going on in the background than we know. I am of the mind that NHSTA is contemplating an investigation but like any government agency is taking their sweet time to do it. Then TSLA call them on Friday and asked them to hurry it up.

However, there seems to be a twitter blackout for a long time, if you look at Elon's tweet: nothing nothing and then today there's a whole slew of them. The old Elon, defender of shareholder stock price. Something happened in between during the blackout and then, something got approved this morning. This could only be something ordered by the government. Whether or not big oil bribed a gov official for the order, we don't know. I just like conspiracy theories because from the recent NSA fiasco, we know they are all true.

Sadly, the delay in time meant the loss of a % of long term shareholders. Now, the base supporter has to be rebuild. I guesstimate we lost all the believers from after the Goldman secondary offer.
Click to expand...

Wait, did you just whisper the conspirators? ;-) Nah. Thought so.
 
#13,210
marvinat0rz said:
The one thing which has stumped me, is the degree to which the media and pundits have jumped on this. It's remarkable how many people want to see Tesla fail. I don't do conspiracy theories, but it is truly fascinating. People are in this with a degree of emotional engagement I have never seen before. Maybe some older and wiser stock market participants could provide examples of similar events before? This amount of emotional investors is a magnificent opportunity if you are good at timing sentiment. Emotion leads to greed, panic and irrational decisions, which leads to good opportunities.
Click to expand...

I'm not older or wiser, but I rode Apple through the late 90s when literally every article about them had the word "beleaguered" preceding the word "Apple." Of course, that was a different situation as Apple was already large and clearly incredibly undervalued due to a decade of ridiculous media reporting on the company, and they had management problems and small market share and everything. But there was a core of very dedicated customers who would never purchase another product which didn't have an apple on it, and everyone thought the company would fail entirely, and I knew it wouldn't. In this case, we're not there with Tesla - few people think it will fail entirely, and the current stock price is an indication that people generally think it will succeed. I hope that we're not in for 5 years of a ridiculous media narrative that there are problems when there are not, but luckily I think the media has become too mercurial recently to be able to run with one hysteria for more than a couple weeks, so I'm hoping this narrative they are sticking so hard to right now will blow over soon.

By the way, last night I posted this after the blog came out:

"even though they'll probably be covered negatively, e.g. 'Tesla doesn't trust their cars so they're adding this to the warranty' and 'NHTSA starts investigation' (leaving out that Tesla asked for one), since the media has a narrative to push"

And sure enough, what headlines do we see? Tons of people burying the lede, not mentioning that Tesla asked for the investigation until the middle of the article, etc. Luckily, one article I saw had a top comment stating that the investigation is a hit piece and it's politically motivated and shouldn't have happened, so at least even if they're completely wrong they still have faith...sigh...
 
#13,212
dm33 said:
Elon still repeating the misrepresenting statistics about ICE fires. Even though only 4% of ICE fires occur from collisions.

Elon also claimed that this could tarnish electric vehicle reputation. Thats misrepresenting as well. Only Tesla has an issue. The LEAF has had zero fires, as has the Volt. He's trying to broaden the problem to implicate all electric cars when only the Model S has this issue. Not good. Even that diminishes his statement that he's doing this to help move the industry to EVs. Trying to bring down all EVs isn't cool.
Click to expand...

Not only is he using statistics generated by other people - as is obviously cited in the blog post - you seem to be leaving out your own apparent 96% of ICE fires which are apparently spontaneous and not caused by collision, of which Tesla has, of course, had zero. So if there is less overall risk, and less spontaneous risk, and there is risk involved when driving through multiple concrete walls and into a tree but the occupants still stay safe, you consider this a safety issue?

And if you're so convinced that these statistics are wrong, why not present your own? How are you going to do the math on that one? Do you know how many collisions there have been with road debris which haven't resulted in an incident? How are you going to sort these collisions, by size or geometry of object? Is your denominator any bigger than two? Because, you know, having a two in the denominator leads to some rather silly statistics.

As for tarnishing electric vehicle reputation, Tesla had to deal with years of "Volt fire" and "Fisker fire" nonsense (which were, I repeat, both nonsense), and now you think they're trying to drag everyone else down? Tesla is the name in EVs, and Tesla is the reason the Volt and Leaf even exist in the first place (by explicit statement from the CEOs of those companies). Of course what happens to Tesla affects EVs.
 
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#13,215
brianstorms said:
Not entertaining at all, in my opinion. A shouting match, where viewers are left not better informed, but further confused. So it goes.
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This is a verbal equivallent of a high Volatility premium put on TSLA options.
The shouting means one thing. The valuation cannot be computed "properly" and emotions go both ways. When someone tries to estimate an unknown future based on an unknown demand cycle years out, including unknown economic weather, we have to consider that both sides are wrong.
 
#13,216
Mario Kadastik said:
I especially loved the idea of Tesla getting involved in the insurance business. They know the car best, they can operate it at marginal profit bringing the insurance cost down and at the same time provide insurance no matter where in the world you are allowing far more adoption of the car in regions outside of the core market. And if Teslas are totaled less than they estimate for in the insurance, then they keep to pocket another line of revenue. This would be a huge deal with very little risk to Tesla and a LOT of added value if they can provide insurance rates that are substantially lower than other insurances offer for other cars. It lowers the TCO of the car even further making it accessible even to a wider public and would add yet another revolutionary component to the already thrown out dealer model. I can't for the life of me figure out why I didn't come to this before today when people started to talk about it here. An announcement like this would send the stock up for sure.
Click to expand...

Mario, This seems to be happening in NL already. Have a look at TESLA INSURANCE
In close cooperation with a large insureance company a very good deal is offered. Euro 750,-- all risk, unimited km.
Took away one of my fears on costs owning an expensive car. I assume very, very many Dutch Tesla owners went for this, virtually unbeatable, offer.
 
#13,217
dm33 said:
Elon also claimed that this could tarnish electric vehicle reputation. Thats misrepresenting as well. Only Tesla has an issue. The LEAF has had zero fires, as has the Volt. He's trying to broaden the problem to implicate all electric cars when only the Model S has this issue. Not good. Even that diminishes his statement that he's doing this to help move the industry to EVs. Trying to bring down all EVs isn't cool.
Click to expand...

This thread remains about as guilty as posts all over the internet with respect to citing as fact serious statements that are so easily researched as to their veracity that there really is NO EXCUSE for spouting them, again and again.

As, for example, the snippet above. Four seconds of Google-searching confirmed my memory that, in fact, the Chevy Volt HAS HAD A SERIES OF FIRES. There were THREE such incidents in 2011; all were as a function of NHTSA testing, and as a consequence, GM recalled and retrofitted the 8,000 or so Volts that were then on the road. Ya kin lookitup - please do.

***I have NOT been able to find road-related fires. The important point, though, is that other EVs out there have had fires and the Volt events did cause significant disruption to the development of the EV as a viable alternative to ICE automobiles.

(FANGO's response appeared while I was writing this....)
 
#13,219
Gerardf said:
Mario, This seems to be happening in NL already. Have a look at TESLA INSURANCE
In close cooperation with a large insureance company a very good deal is offered. Euro 750,-- all risk, unimited km.
Took away one of my fears on costs owning an expensive car. I assume very, very many Dutch Tesla owners went for this, virtually unbeatable, offer.
Click to expand...

Is this for real?! I could see Tesla doing same thing in partnership with GEICO, aka Berkshire Hathaway. Warren Buffet has been very progressive on the green energy front, would be a natural alliance.
 
#13,220
GenIIIBuyer said:
Is this for real?! I could see Tesla doing same thing in partnership with GEICO, aka Berkshire Hathaway. Warren Buffet has been very progressive on the green energy front, would be a natural alliance.
Click to expand...

Well, awaiting delivery of my car late December, I already ordered this insureance. And many on the Benelux section of this forum did. So yes, it is for real :)
Tesla / CB jointly produced promotion flyers were on the table in the Tesla store and passed on to me.
 
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