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Thanks Robertj for this info. It does seem likely that institutional buyers would be coming in at this point. Although there were signs indicating internal planning by TM to ramp up production to 100+ K of cars/year by the end of 2015, it is the first time that this production level was mentioned by TM officially in the shareholders letter. This was very significant because it was the first time (as far as I can recall) that TM gave production projection so far out into the future. They were including demand projections before, but not production/deliveries projections six quarters ahead.
I've been posting about this for a while, but even bullish audience on this forum was pretty skeptical on my speculation on the subject of internal TM goals. This is why the 100K guidance is so important, and came as a surprise to an investor community at large. It feels that we will be going into the top levels of TSLA as defined by DaveT in a hurry...
Just for the reference, one of my musings using the annual production rate 100+ K of cars is referenced below:
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014 - Page 377
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when I was listening to the earnings call and he'll on mentioned 2015 guidance I thought about your analysis and how dead on it was (again) nicely done
Thanks, Blakegalagher. I hope you were buying last Friday after the call. I sure was...
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Krugerrand
Meow
At this point I think you could run a fairly successful side business by allowing folks to subscribe to a mailing list in which you advised them of your moves just prior to making them. Subscribers would then do the opposite, and everybody wins! :biggrin:
I've tried reverse psychology on the market. I hover over the buy/sell, pretend to click, and say "Psych!". Hasn't worked.
Oh, so I'm not the only one with that jinx ? Take comfort knowing you are not the only one with the market hex.
If you find a cure for it, let me know ! :smile:
I'll be cured when I run out of money
If my kids college costs don't make that happen first. Ah well, this is something that should go to the social thread.So, on topic, with the discussion yesterday about low/mid/high ranges and purchasing, I suppose at this point I just wait until the stock has a drop at some point and slips back down in a mid/low range. My money went in a solar that looks like it should be in the low range given it's history (so, following the reverse trend, don't buy JASO since I just did). That leaves me without a TSLA position at all right now, but I'll probably want to reinvest at some point.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Please don't beat yourself up. You made a choice based on the best information you had at the time, knowing full well that you can't predict the future and the market could move against you. It could have just as well gone the other way. You could have waited, Janet Yellen could have sneezed in public the next day, and then you would have regretted that you didn't recover what you could. In general, more is lost due to fear of missing out than because of extra caution. The worst thing you can do to yourself is to dive into regret over what you could have gained had you chosen differently.
The other thing is anchoring. When the market moves against you after you've taken a position and a long time has passed, it may be a bad idea to get stuck on the original amount you put into the trade, stubbornly waiting to recover it all, particularly with options. Preservation of capital should be the number one concern, especially if the funds in question are a big part of your portfolio. It's better to do what you did, to try to salvage what you can, while you still can, even though the stock price may continue to move up for a while. Nobody can time the peaks and troughs perfectly or consistently. Make a decision because you feel comfortable with it, set the exit parameters, and when you exit, don't dwell on what could have been.
I've heard someone saying that money flows to the successful traders from the active traders. Some people are outliers, and can have consistent returns with an aggressive trading style, but in the overwhelming majority of cases slow and steady wins the race. A longer time horizon and a less speculative approach will likely produce better results.
Finally, know that I should take my own advice more often myself. We are all prone to mistakes under pressure, and few can suppress the emotion that comes with this stuff. I guarantee you that every single member of this board, including the most successful ones, made mistakes like this in their trading. No lesson sticks until we've paid for it (I should know, I'm still paying.)
Cheer up
!
At times today the price has been above the all-time closing high of 254.84 achieved on March 4. The all-time intra-day high of 265.00 had been reached on February 26.
EDIT: I changed the price and date of the closing high from what I had given earlier.
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Right, not a particularly bold prediction on my part
I used the last of my cash last week on some Jan 170s. I consider this run about half done.
Perspective:
View attachment 55846
Whats the ATH abbreviation embedded within graph?
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ALL TIME HIGH?
Agree with this
Tesla Stock Is Primed for a Return to All-Time Highs (TSLA) | InvestorPlace
Might take a small breather before we continue.
Tesla Stock Is Primed for a Return to All-Time Highs (TSLA) | InvestorPlace
Might take a small breather before we continue.
The run will possibly go for a few weeks, but ATH will be set in a few days :biggrin:
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