Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Citizen-T]

News that BMW is going to roll out a "supercharger-like" network.

BMW Plans Tesla Motors Inc Like Charging Network

I expect that very soon we are going to start hearing the "I told you so---competition" argument from bears. We really need some news to rally the bulls. I'm very surprised that the bulls have done such a poor job defending the 200-day this time. There is no good reason to give it up right now, but the bears seem to be much more motivated to break it than we are to defend it.

Honestly, this has caught me flat-footed. I'm position for a bounce off the 200-day, but that doesn't seem to be happening.

Tweet please, Elon. =)

 

[vgrinshpun]

Boeing farmed out the BMS and pack management to another company, Securaplane, which it seems used a NiMH battery control scheme which allowed a trickle charge to continue after the cells were fully charged. Swelling and shorting resulted. Yet nowhere have I seen the FAA make this obvious connection.

Wow, it appears that they utilized the best reckless engineering practices. This is showing yet again the wisdom of the TM decision to use vertical integration and avoid outsourcing their engineering.

For those not familiar, there is a difference between being smart vs. being wise: smart always find a way out of the difficult situations; wise do not get into difficult situations. TM are really wise to avoid outsourcing.

 

[Robert.Boston]

News that BMW is going to roll out a "supercharger-like" network.

BMW Plans Tesla Motors Inc Like Charging Network

I expect that very soon we are going to start hearing the "I told you so---competition" argument from bears. We really need some news to rally the bulls. I'm very surprised that the bulls have done such a poor job defending the 200-day this time. There is no good reason to give it up right now, but the bears seem to be much more motivated to break it than we are to defend it.

Honestly, this has caught me flat-footed. I'm position for a bounce off the 200-day, but that doesn't seem to be happening.

Tweet please, Elon. =)

There's discussion about this news over here: #36
Note that the BMW "supercharger" is a 24 kW charger, hardly better than Tesla's HPWC. Sheesh.

 

[bonaire]

Is JRP3 saying Boeing's airliners used Lithium batteries which the other company used trickle-charging to keep the Li-Ion "floated" like an NiMH? That is crazy dangerous. I would say that is incredibly irresponsible of the OEM parts provider for their Lithium-based battery system. Even laptops and hand-held devices use voltage based charging "interruption" to stop a charge once it hits a full state, presumably below actual full at 4.2V - more like 4.0 or 4.1V for safety.

 

[AlMc]

News that BMW is going to roll out a "supercharger-like" network.

BMW Plans Tesla Motors Inc Like Charging Network

I expect that very soon we are going to start hearing the "I told you so---competition" argument from bears. We really need some news to rally the bulls. I'm very surprised that the bulls have done such a poor job defending the 200-day this time. There is no good reason to give it up right now, but the bears seem to be much more motivated to break it than we are to defend it.

Honestly, this has caught me flat-footed. I'm position for a bounce off the 200-day, but that doesn't seem to be happening.

Tweet please, Elon. =)

For the short term we bulls have limited ammunition. We really have not had a big positive catalyst since the 'Oct 9th' run up to D reveal. Q3ER did not show a beat, delivery guidance lowered for 2014. Unless something comes up short term soon the fudsters (bears) will be in charge of the stock price. For bulls this represents a buying opportunity: stock and J17s. However, I am staying away from short term options.

 

[MartinAustin]

Well, I may try and catch the falling knife today...hopefully it won't cut me like it did 2 days ago.
Seriously, I can't see is falling lower than $227.
But I also said it wouldn't go lower than $235 on Monday.

I'm with you... getting ready to buy more... December will be a great month for Tesla news as we step over the "D" and get to the "X" and I believe the stock will climb back up.

Not enough people seem to realise that when they look at the 4900lb Model S P85D, they are really also looking at the chassis/powertrain of the Model X P85D getting tested in the field by real customers. Putting it unscientifically, if the X85D weighs 20% more than the P85D (5,880lbs... gulp!), it will accelerate 20% less quickly. 0-60 in ~4.0 seconds? Despite its enormous mass it's going to be one of the fastest and best-gripping SUVs on the market.

 

[Perfectlogic]

For the short term we bulls have limited ammunition. We really have not had a big positive catalyst since the 'Oct 9th' run up to D reveal. Q3ER did not show a beat, delivery guidance lowered for 2014. Unless something comes up short term soon the fudsters (bears) will be in charge of the stock price. For bulls this represents a buying opportunity: stock and J17s. However, I am staying away from short term options.

It didn't take significant negative news for TSLA to fall from $290 to this level, so the stock should be able to jump without positive news too, it is way oversold here.

Harb said that an official announcement will be made during the North American International Auto Show, adding that they want to set up those charging stations everywhere. Harb said, “I don’t think [Tesla is] going to be happy with how quickly these things roll out.”

It's almost funny how much BMW for some reason seems to hate Tesla. Half funny half sad that they try to spin this plan for a rollout of a much slower charging network like some coup de grace to Tesla, seems kinda desperate too.

 

[Gerardf]

It's almost funny how much BMW for some reason seems to hate Tesla. Half funny half sad that they try to spin this plan for a rollout of a much slower charging network like some coup de grace to Tesla, seems kinda desperate too.

Well.. Seems a bit like something happened that frustrated BMW.

Maybe BMW was interested in using the Tesla patents and/or SuC, and Elon told them that they can only be used for FULL EV's and not for PHEV's and RexEV's ?

 

[Citizen-T]

For the short term we bulls have limited ammunition. We really have not had a big positive catalyst since the 'Oct 9th' run up to D reveal. Q3ER did not show a beat, delivery guidance lowered for 2014. Unless something comes up short term soon the fudsters (bears) will be in charge of the stock price. For bulls this represents a buying opportunity: stock and J17s. However, I am staying away from short term options.

Yeah, I know all of that, and it is very good reason for the stock to be range bound, but not good reason to fall through the massive support that the 200-day has provided forever.

 

[AlMc]

It didn't take significant negative news for TSLA to fall from $290 to this level, so the stock should be able to jump without positive news too, it is way oversold here

.

Agree that the stock will rebound in the long term, I just think it will take longer to get back to $290 than it took it to drop to $230. I know I sound like a 'negative nellie' and I believe that there are positive catalysts ahead that will propel us upward. I just don't see any of them in the short term (3-4 weeks).


*****I hope I am WRONG as I will be wealthier (on paper) if I am******

 

[ckessel]

There's discussion about this news over here: #36
Note that the BMW "supercharger" is a 24 kW charger, hardly better than Tesla's HPWC. Sheesh.

BMW is way off base if they think that Tesla, and Elon specifically, would be unhappy at a mass rollout of cross-vender compatible 24kW DC charging. It's no supercharger, but it'd be a good thing for EVs overall.

 

[FluxCap]

Despite the oil-related dip, there are boatloads of buyers of TSLA at the 200-day (like me) because there is no substantial reason for the stock to be at this oversold level based on no real fundamental news. The company's current financial performance and its forward-looking financials are unchanged, and as positive as ever.

I expect a significant correction upwards in the next few weeks, and a massive correction upwards when Q4 report hits in February. So do most credible analysts on the street, it seems.

 

[BlueTan85]

What's on my mind in terms of short-term TSLA price movements this month:

• How much of the factory is scrambling to get the P85Ds out?

• What percentage of Q4 deliveries are P85Ds?

• How much is Tesla counting on the higher ASP of Q4 P85D sales to boost their Q4 results?

• At what point should concerns grow regarding delivery delays of P85Ds promised for December?

• If Tesla has quality/engineering problems with the first batch of P85Ds and not as many actually go out the door this month as they'd hoped, what does that do to the Q4 total delivery number?

• Did we get a hint when Elon casually mentioned (last week?) in Germany a "32 to 33 thousand" number for 2014, lower than even the guidance in recent Q3 ER conf call?

I'm super, duper long ($1000/share and maybe I'll sell) but short term I am starting to wonder if Q4 is not going as well as we've been led to believe.

 

[tdiggity]

I'm super, duper long ($1000/share and maybe I'll sell) but short term I am starting to wonder if Q4 is not going as well as we've been led to believe.

I'm in a similar boat. Q4 seems less positive than Q3 did.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Tesla has a meeting at the Credit Suisse Global Industrials Conference today at 3:45PM EST.

 

[Papafox]

Two important developments of the past week:

Price eased below the 200 day ma and nothing much has happened so far. Enough buyers are available to keep TSLA from going over the cliff, as shorts had hoped. I suspect if the broader markets turn down the shorts will give another push.

BMW, which had previously looked like one of the most promising supercharger partners, has indicated it will not cooperate. The auto industry has chosen to snub Tesla in the hopes that it stumbles at some point. The implication is that although TSLA does not see a short term benefit, the stock will likely do even better in the long run, since no auto companies are pursuing robust supercharger technologies and TSLA will likely have a longer run before serious competition develops. Short term disappointments will lead to long run gains for TSLA.

 

[MikeC]

I'm happy to not have to share Superchargers with BMW and I'm guessing Teslas will be able to use BMW's slow chargers with the right adapter. Funny how the media is spinning this as a negative for Tesla when it's really a negative for BMW.

There's a bunch of inconsequential but negative news right now. I think the shorts are trying to pounce on the technicals right now but they're not able to push it far. Looks like a good buying opportunity to me, I didn't think I'd get another chance in the 220s.

 

[pz1975]

I think the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement also tends to be an important technical support line - according to stockta.com (Stock Technical Analysis: Analysis of TSLA based on EMA, MACD, RSI, Stochastic, Fibonacci, trends and gaps), the current 61.8% line for TSLA is 221.67. We haven't dropped to that point yet but it will be interesting to see what happens if we do.

 

[Tuxedo]

I think the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement also tends to be an important technical support line - according to stockta.com (Stock Technical Analysis: Analysis of TSLA based on EMA, MACD, RSI, Stochastic, Fibonacci, trends and gaps), the current 61.8% line for TSLA is 221.67. We haven't dropped to that point yet but it will be interesting to see what happens if we do.

The stock tried 220 several times in October and early November. Bumped back up each time. Not sure if this has anything to do with Fibonacci numbers, though. And anyway, history has been full of surprises, and can only teach you to expect more surprises. (Hmm.. was that Vonnegut?)

 

[LST]

or Kilgore Trout ?