55k guidance for 2015: I'll be really irritated with Tesla if they were to actually lower guidance below 55k deliveries on the ER today
why? When tesla originally provided 2015 guidance they could've picked any guidance that they were comfortable with. For example, 50k instead of 55k. I think that 50k would've been more than adequate YoY vs 2014's 32k deliveries to support the stock price.
So, why did tesla provide 55k? Answer is they were comfortable with this forecast. Furthermore, they went thru all these big factory upgrades to enable them to scale production AND they made it a point to say that only "minor changes" were needed to scale out as a result of the big changes already in place.
Additionally, Elon said they would exit 2015 at a 100k cars per year production rate. In other words, they would go thru a large production ramp in 2015 as the months go by...
bottom line is that Tesla is a high growth company and the market values them on this growth. They missed last year (model D issues and weather/holiday season deliveries etc). It's really bad if they miss again or have to lower guidance. Tesla needs to provide guidance that they can hit. Under promise and over deliver (repeat quarterly)
I don't believe they'll lower guidance away from 55k. If Model X has initial unexpected production ramp issues in Q4, then simply make more Model S's.
BTW: I'm long since 2012 and in for the long haul.