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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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I agree with Causalien: Ben Kallo is my new favorite analyst. He goes directly for the jugular with his questions and also, thanks to his voice and intonation, comes across as this "cool uncle with a Mustang" kind of guy. And it doesn't seem he is having his strings pulled by some puppet master.
Agree, except cool uncle with a mustang isn't so cool anymore ;)
 
I'm not an expert. But it does feel like the amount of manipulation TSLA is subjected to is insane..... volume is so slim... the behaviour of the last few weeks has been really insane. How many analyst upgrades/positive notes do we need to start claiming decisively!?

I wonder how many shares are actually being traded out of the total. I mean, once we factor the internal owners+long term believers I wonder how many shares remain floating around.
 
Well, this reminded me of something from my past.

It was an 3 years expansion plan that will break even on year 3. I presented to the directors/shareholders everyone was happy and approved. I went ahead and executed for 1.5 years. Annual report time came, the directors did not like seeing the cash burn and voted to terminate it.

Lesson here is. The shareholders will not know they do not like seeing cash burn until they see it and feel it. So never present a plan so ambitious hat net income is negative for any year unless you are powerful enough to be a majority shareholder.

That is an entirely apposite story, Causalien. Here's a corollary: if your corporation is large enough to deal with the likes of Goldman and MorganS, but not quite the size of, say, Apple or ExxonM, then be prepared to have them play hardball with you....with you as the ball. The last ten-twelve hours stinks to high heaven of Morgan playing every side every which way but correct - in terms of (1) trying to snag TM to come back to them for another round of financing, (2) of assisting their institutional clients in amassing shares, and (3) in fleecing their smaller clients* in the short- and medium-term future.
*smaller: Morgan Stanley doesn't cater to small investors, as far as I'm aware (not really - disregard certain funds they manage). For them, 'smaller' means in the $50-100mm range....
 
I'm so glad I listened to the earning call as usual. Nothing made sense this morning and with everyone's feedback in the forum I expected to start at 235 and hit 242-245 today. Amazing how much the stock was slammed this morning. I hope everyone hung onto their shares and accumulated more!
 
Going back to the CapEx spending discussion, Deepak answered that question on the CC. With the finished goods inventory increasing, they will tap into a credit line with the finished goods and raw materials inventory as collateral. That should take them to Q4, when they will be cash flow positive.

It'll take a few days for investors to digest all of the information presented yesterday, but as that happens the upward pressure on the stock price will increase.
 
Deepak actually said **free** cash flow positive, which means that cash will not only cover all operational expenses, including R&D, but capex as well. Incidentally, this is not the first time he mentioned it. I think that he said the same thing either during the Q3 or Q4 2014 ER CC
 
Nice little article from autoblog about why Tesla's offering is so much more compelling as an entire package. What it would take to build a true Tesla competitor?

It's nice to see an autoblog say exactly what we all have been complaining about here on TMC... which is a lack of *true* commitment from competition. If they would really embrace EVs it might be different and it would be a joy to see... sadly, nothing has truly been a compelling EV except for Tesla's products. And we all know why they won't switch any time soon, ICE still sells, and it sells *very* well. Why cannibalize your own product lines on a gamble that, in their eyes, might not even pan out.

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Deepak actually said **free** cash flow positive, which means that cash will not only cover all operational expenses, including R&D, but capex as well. Incidentally, this is not the first time he mentioned it. I think that he said the same thing either during the Q3 or Q4 2014 ER CC

Yeah, it was first stated in Q3. Reiterated in Q4. And stated once more in Q1... and ignored every time :(

The only thing that has changed is they originally said it would be "around Q3", then said "Maybe end of Q3 or Q4" and now we are solidly into Q4 for when we should expect to see the cash make a big turn around for the company. I think this is a bit of insight into when they were originally hoping for factory upgrades and suppliers to come together and now we won't see the full payout until Q4.

On the one hand, I am so looking forward to when this finally drops because it will be a game changer... on the other hand, as they keep pushing this statement back, they are inadvertently implying that it is getting harder and harder to meet their expected 55k guidance. Because I remember in Q3 of last year they first said 2,000 a week by the end of this year, and it seemed to strongly imply Q3 might be when this happens. Now, I am inclined to think the 2K number will be lucky to exit the year at that level. Will 1 quarter's difference matter in the long run? Most likely not... But if you are trying to plan the short term game, good luck. I would give yourself wide berth on when this is finally going to drop and impact the share price.
 
Ascendiant Capital Markets on Q1 ER:
In a report published Thursday, Ascendiant Capital Markets analyst Theodore O'Neill commented on Tesla's first quarter results, noting the company reported both a top and bottom line beat to consensus estimates, but faces several upcoming challenges.
(link)

Ascendiant Capital Markets analyst Theodore O'Neill is rating Tesla Motors shares with a buy and price target of $320.
 
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