Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[ev-enthusiast]

TSLA has recovered quite a bit from today's macro-inspired dip. I'd hate for most my money to be in TSLA puts right now. Seems that would be a very dicey investment.

You bet I love that recovery
This is what I like to see, markets down and TSLA recovering from the lows from old news about issues with the gear box.
SP movements like this restores my confidence in investing in this stock.

What makes me a bit sad personally is that I expected a high percentage probability for this lull ahead of the X roll out (did not expect it to be that volatile though).
From my every day work and colleagues I know that ramping up production of a let's say 70% new vehicle is a big task (especially if this is the second model added to the line up).
I just have not been carfully enough. I thought we might see $290 to $300 in advance of the X ramp lull. Wanted to derisk my positions then. In retrospective this is crazy, way too risky for maybe an other $10 increment of SP. Should have derisked earlier and maybe in percentage increments. I have just been too bullish

BTW, still no puts here.

Ok, let's try to focus about the future again. I could imagine that the next really big positive catalyst might be the 3 reveal end of March 2016.
I could imagine we might see a run up towards the event.
Based on past SP reactions (like the unveiling of the D-event), I could imagine this is again a buy the rumour and sell the news event.
The crazy thing is I have already seen first press articles wrongly stating the 3 will be shipped by end of March 2016!
Are some press folks intentionally setting expectations too high?

 

[madodel]

Agreed. I used to think the shorts would give up and go away. They do, but there will ALWAYS be new shorts.

There are still people shorting AAPL. I've been long AAPL for over 15 years now and it amazes me the number of people who still keep predicting doom for Apple. I see the same with TSLA. They keep trying to manipulate the price based on FUD or blow minor issues insanely out of control. They may win on a few bumps here and there but long term (5, 10, 15 years) I'm going to make money and the greedy shorts will get crushed.

 

[austinEV]

I agree with that, I'll rephrase. Looking forward to the CURRENT shorts that post their nonsense on TMC to get crushed. Maybe the new shorts will be less annoying.

They will be more annoying at a higher level because their arguments will be better. If the stock is at $500 in July I will be among them... I will say, geez I love this company long term but I am short now. And it will be real annoying for anyone hanging on. Everyone has the price at which they go from bull to neutral to bear just on price valuation. At $1000 a share in July I would be an insufferably smug bear. I mean I wouldn't try to write badly, but my position would invariably grate on any lingering bulls.

 

[AlMc]

They will be more annoying at a higher level because their arguments will be better. If the stock is at $500 in July I will be among them... I will say, geez I love this company long term but I am short now. And it will be real annoying for anyone hanging on. Everyone has the price at which they go from bull to neutral to bear just on price valuation. At $1000 a share in July I would be an insufferably smug bear. I mean I wouldn't try to write badly, but my position would invariably grate on any lingering bulls.

Agreed. TSLA is a momo stock at this time in it's life cycle. Many people will make money investing in and many will lose. New shorts will replace the old and I have read that many here will probably get out of their long positions when the model3 ramps. They will be replaced by new longs.

The old saying applies to TSLA: Bulls make money, bear make money, pigs get slaughtered.

I do not pretend to know the SP of TSLA tomorrow, next week, month or year. Based on what many of us feel will be a good 2016 for TM/TSLA I am just hoping we make a new ATH.

 

[BornToFly]

Darn. So close to triggering my 220 buy order for more long term shares today. Maybe tomorrow if the green car report (on the 2 year old drive train issue) goes mainstream before the new CR article on Tesla's continued #1 Satisfaction results at 97%.

 

[MitchJi]

MX will be a home run:

The owner of Founder's 36 was very gracious and offered a tour of the car. Didn't take any pictures of the interior while we were talking, but the inside is great. The front seats are better than the next gen seats in the Model S. All 3 rows had perforated leather, and the perforated leather feels amazing. More room inside than I expected, though headroom might be an issue for 3rd row if you are taller than 6 ft. Much nicer than the next gen seats with premium interior. Nicer than the Nappa leather my early-ish car has (which is nicer than any of the loaners with different versions of leather I've had throughout the years). Interior feels much higher quality all around than the Model S, but keeps the same great minimalist styling. Everything looks more finished/refined/polished. The center console cup holders for the 2nd row extend and expand from their hiding spot under the USB ports in a dramatic (for cup holders) fashion. The Falcon Wing doors are super cool and operate quicker than I expected. Getting into the 2nd and 3rd rows is easier than any other SUV I've used. The auto closing and opening front doors are sweet as well. You can just pull the handle on the inside and the door shuts, much rapidly than I expected. My photos (and all photos I've seen) don't do this car justice. Just amazing looking in person.

View attachment 103904
View attachment 103906
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(Quick walkaround video will come soon when youtube is done processing, whatever that means)

Video is worthless IMO.

Founders VIN 36 seems to indicate that they have solved the issues like trim placement. If so it should be pretty easy to produce a few hundred cars per week by the end of the year. Exactly what Elon said they would do.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Tesla is very quietly expanding its Supercharger and Destination Charger network. Also Tesla is very quietly signing deals with partners to sell the Powerwall. There are also the comments about a Second Gigafactory, that will eventually become concrete facts. None of these things are being emphasized by Tesla or by analysts. The real rally will resume when analysts begin to highlight these developments. Elon is speaking at a few things this week. In the next few weeks a lot of big investors will reveal plans for investing in projects, in the same ball park as those being worked on by Tesla.

The First Tesla Powerwall Installer In Australia Is Natural Solar | Gizmodo Australia

Origin Energy snares deal with Tesla to sell Powerwall battery

In an interview with Gizmodo, managing director of Natural Solar, Chris Williams (pictured above, right), said that the company has been collaborating with Tesla Energy for some time: “[We] have been actively monitoring the residential and commercial lithium-ion battery industry since early 2013. We reached out directly to Tesla before any news of the Powerwall was mentioned, because of their game-changing Gigafactory and the obvious advantage they offer in terms of economies of scale.

The company says residential installations without solar panels are “a growing and untapped market with tremendous potential”. Thousands of properties, especially in metropolitan areas where apartments and high-density housing are common, are unable to install rooftop solar due to renting or not having access to sufficient roof space with a high enough quality of sunlight. Natural Solar will be offering complete turn-key solutions in its installations, with no additional hardware required

Also, this is the big new from today that went virtually unnoticed.

TPP, CETA present Canadian businesses with a trade opportunity - Canadian Manufacturing

Nocookies | The Australian

The China Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA) will come into effect on December 20 — triggering a massive round of tariff cuts.

 

[davecolene0606]

Buying opportunity coming shortly,

Multiple hit job articles attributed to a Green Car Reports "scientific survey" where 327 folks that had drive trains replaced is translated into imminent failures @ 60k miles.

Complete unadulterated FUD being churned out. Obvious desperation move of the shorts about to be slaughtered.

For those who have the nads to play the volitility, here's a great opportunity!

Fire Away

 

[aznt1217]

540 robots... And more capacity than originally expected 2016 is looking really nice.

http://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=11135578

 

[Spidy]

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analys...tion+Target,+Says+Deutsche+Bank/11135578.html

Just saw this on Reddit.

Edit: Beat me to it.

 

[MikeC]

Buying opportunity coming shortly,

Multiple hit job articles attributed to a Green Car Reports "scientific survey" where 327 folks that had drive trains replaced is translated into imminent failures @ 60k miles.

Complete unadulterated FUD being churned out. Obvious desperation move of the shorts about to be slaughtered.

For those who have the nads to play the volitility, here's a great opportunity!

Fire Away��

540 robots... And more capacity than originally expected 2016 is looking really nice.

http://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=11135578

That might have been the shortest buying opportunity ever. The report looks pretty bullish to me - "production capacity of 3600/week in 2016" - with the biggest negative actually confirming that TM will make at least the lower end of guidance.

 

[Spidy]

I mean potential capacity, but when you look when Tesla plans to deliver Model X 70 cars it's pretty obvious the 2400/week won't be achieved any time soon. Because that would allow the to produce all Model X preorders in 3 months, while they tell people to expect late 2016 deliveries.

I honestly also think they would have demand issues if they reach 3600/week. I mean that's 2015 Europe sales done in a month. And Model S still has December delivery in the US.

 

[dakh]

I mean potential capacity, but when you look when Tesla plans to deliver Model X 70 cars it's pretty obvious the 2400/week won't be achieved any time soon. Because that would allow the to produce all Model X preorders in 3 months, while they tell people to expect late 2016 deliveries.

I honestly also think they would have demand issues if they reach 3600/week. I mean that's 2015 Europe sales done in a month. And Model S still has December delivery in the US.

Didn't they also plan to shut down existing line 1 and use that space for Model 3 production line setup? Also, where are they going to get that many batteries? Any info out there on what's the ceiling for battery production before GF kicks in?

 

[Fallenone]

2400/week won't be all X, there'll be a large portion if not 50% of them being S.

I mean potential capacity, but when you look when Tesla plans to deliver Model X 70 cars it's pretty obvious the 2400/week won't be achieved any time soon. Because that would allow the to produce all Model X preorders in 3 months, while they tell people to expect late 2016 deliveries.

I honestly also think they would have demand issues if they reach 3600/week. I mean that's 2015 Europe sales done in a month. And Model S still has December delivery in the US.

 

[AlMc]

I mean potential capacity, but when you look when Tesla plans to deliver Model X 70 cars it's pretty obvious the 2400/week won't be achieved any time soon. Because that would allow the to produce all Model X preorders in 3 months, while they tell people to expect late 2016 deliveries.

I honestly also think they would have demand issues if they reach 3600/week. I mean that's 2015 Europe sales done in a month. And Model S still has December delivery in the US.

Didn't they also plan to shut down existing line 1 and use that space for Model 3 production line setup? Also, where are they going to get that many batteries? Any info out there on what's the ceiling for battery production before GF kicks in?

The note indicates that they believe the TM lines could produce 3,600 units/week maximum. It does not say they can/will do that right away. EM has guided for far fewer going forward and I believe they are supply constrained, especially battery wise, until the GF really gets cranking them out...and that will take 4 years to fully ramp.

 

[dakh]

What I was referring to is the actual math is going to be 2400/wk because the 1200/wk from first body line will disappear. AFAIR that was the plan to begin with.

 

[Scott Ales]

I mean potential capacity, but when you look when Tesla plans to deliver Model X 70 cars it's pretty obvious the 2400/week won't be achieved any time soon. Because that would allow the to produce all Model X preorders in 3 months, while they tell people to expect late 2016 deliveries.

I honestly also think they would have demand issues if they reach 3600/week. I mean that's 2015 Europe sales done in a month. And Model S still has December delivery in the US.

Consider this. You have a huge demand item at high price points and another which has been in the market for 4 years. Which one do you want to ramp up and deliver more of? There is a strong possibility they are flushing out the MS cars to meet guidance and will almost vacate the Ms sales effort to deliver more MXs. They'll get plenty of MS trades to satisfy that demand if they make the X faster. Have you seen the latest Volvo SUV commercial? They are advertising the heck out of that thing! Wonder why right now? Hah! This would also have a VERY positive impact on the bottom line. I would imagine the average margin of next year's MX deliveries vs MS is substantially higher. We could see profitability much sooner than anticipated.

Not too many people are talking about the statement made during the Q3 call lately. We're bringing seat pedestal production in house. This not only salves the problem for good, it advances the run rate as compared to what they previously would have considered. It's been WAY too quite lately and i seriously think they are going to blow it out the first quarter of 16. Not soon enough to save my Jan 16s, possibly the Mar 16s, but my Jan 17s will be rocking by mid year!

 

[stealthology]

Anyone following the bear posts on SeekingAlpha? As Tesla is at basically all time high short interest, do they make any compelling arguments?

Here are my thoughts: A few days ago, Tesla confirmed to Credit Suisse that they expect to produce several hundred X's/week by the end of this month. That falls exactly in line with Elon's words in the Q3 call. Unless Tesla is being really misleading here (god forbid they produce a few hundred here in December just to stick to plan, and dial it back down in Jan), I see the X ramp being imminent and Tesla's stock price rising as that becomes apparent.

 

[Krugerrand]

Anyone following the bear posts on SeekingAlpha? As Tesla is at basically all time high short interest, do they make any compelling arguments?

Yes.
No. It's the same articles by the same authors. It's the same comments by the same people. It's like being in the movie, Groundhog Day, only it ceased to be amusing two years ago.

 

[FredTMC]

New "Inventory" cars continue to sell out on the Tesla CPO site. Remember, these Inventory cars are sold as "new" and contribute to Tesla's Q4 deliveries.

Overall, in the US, there WAS 80 cars last week and now there are 70 as of today

In the UK, there was 18 last week and now there's 10.

My guess is that once it's too late to order a new car for Q4 delivery, the remainder of these Inventory cars will likely sell out.
My original guess from around the Last earnings call is that tesla will sell around 500 of these inventory cars in Q4

With Tesla emptying the pipe of these inventory cars, I'm definitely getting the sense that tesla will hit their Q4 guidance. Especially true sense they told CS they are on track.

With respect to stock price, I continue to believe that tesla will hit their guidance for Q4. I continue to think "a Win will feel like a Win" (Elon quote) and the stock price will rally off Q4 results. Our first taste of this will be by Jan 4th, when Tesla releases delivery numbers for Q4. It's possible too that they may pre-announce other financial results and production numbers as well. They've done this in the past. Put another way, I would be very scared to be short this stock in early Jan.

There's now only 65 "inventory" cars on the Tesla website. Was 70 this morning.

Looks like they'll definitely sell thru these remaining ones by year end unless they post more.