Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[uselesslogin]

Relating to the Founders series which we recently saw a delivery of #36 less than a week after #17. Well I noticed VIN #53 belongs to a referral winner and they got confirmation it will be produced after the Sigs. So we know the original Founder's series is no more than 52 cars which also means if they keep up this delivery rate we might actually see Bonnie get her Sig next week. Of course there is no guarantee that rate will be maintained.

 

[FredTMC]

Lot's of fear over China. Over in the macro-thread we're just seeing an advance sell off for next week. Crude movements don't help our case today either.

Yeah, seems like the perfect cure for all this sluggishness and doom is to raise interest rates. That'll really help

 

[dmunjal]

Yeah, seems like the perfect cure for all this sluggishness and doom is to raise interest rates. That'll really help

So we should never raise interest rates? Because that might be the only thing holding the market up right now?

 

[hobbes]

Some news from Trip Chowdry - wonder if he has some insider info or if these are just his estimates:

36 Tesla Model X Founder Series have been delivered so far, another 16 Founder Series still to go…soon to be followed by Model X Signature series

Total Model X reservations are about 33,000. Founder Series are about 51, Signature Series are about 1,500

About 9,000 reservation holders have now configured their Model X; Model X 90D seems most popular, followed by Model X P90D (Tesla is using this process to plan the production line)

Significant Model X deliveries are expected to occur in California during the last week of December’2015

Tesla is expected to sunset 85kwh battery by December’31 2015… 70Kwh and 90 Kwh will be the only options available in 2016, with probably 100Kwh option being added sometime in the middle of 2016.

​

I marked the things that seem new to me. Is it possible the popularity of the different choices come out of TMC´s Model X counter? What are your opinions on the quality and actual news content of the other points?

Tesla Motors: About Those Model X Deliveries - Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com

 

[MikeC]

Some news from Trip Chowdry - wonder if he has some insider info or if these are just his estimates:



I marked the things that seem new to me. Is it possible the popularity of the different choices come out of TMC´s Model X counter? What are your opinions on the quality and actual news content of the other points?

Tesla Motors: About Those Model X Deliveries - Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com

Trip has pretty much the worst prediction record of any TSLA analyst (excluding shills like Lovallo) but this does all sound pretty plausible.

 

[AlMc]

It's off.

Yep..Just triple checked. I will delete the post to avoid confusion. Thanks Mike

 

[hobbes]

Yep..Just triple checked. I will delete the post to avoid confusion. Thanks Mike

Talking about avoiding confusion - whatya talking about??

 

[MikeC]

Talking about avoiding confusion - whatya talking about??

Gotta delete the post referring to the confusing post, too, AIMc :smile:

It was about this outlier AH trade, hobbes:

 

[justthateasy]

Just when I thought we could catch a break and head north of 230, we get a day like today.

 

[FluxCap]

Just when I thought we could catch a break and head north of 230, we get a day like today.

You do realize today's price movement had absolutely nothing to do with TSLA, right?

 

[Scott Ales]

So we should never raise interest rates? Because that might be the only thing holding the market up right now?

We had our quarterly ALCO (Asset/Liability Committee) this week at the bank. It was presented to the committee that the Fed needs an increase if for nothing else than a later option to lower them if we slide into another recession. Think about it, how would they respond to correct a recession right now? We're at 25 basis points! Like anyone would care if they dropped to zero.

 

[dmunjal]

We had our quarterly ALCO (Asset/Liability Committee) this week at the bank. It was presented to the committee that the Fed needs an increase if for nothing else than a later option to lower them if we slide into another recession. Think about it, how would they respond to correct a recession right now? We're at 25 basis points! Like anyone would care if they dropped to zero.

NIRP!

Personally, I think the whole thing is ridiculous. We should have never have kept interest rates at zero for seven years in the first place. Unintended consequences and all that.

 

[FredTMC]

62 "inventory" cars currently. Down 3 from yesterday.

down 4 more today to 58 remaining US inventory cars on the site. 7 sold today.

 

[Irishjugg]

We might not see $210. If you are feeling confident, you might want to add about now. I just bought an addition 250 shares.

Just picked up another 40 shares (to me at this stage in life that's pretty close to all in actually). Hoping to touch under 205 to get my last order to execute and truly be all in. Then I'll work on finding money for whatever happens dec 15. If the market irrationally tanked and I could scoop up some tsla at 180 I might have to change my underwear after I clicked buy. See you guys at 300+ in a couple of months

 

[Scott Ales]

NIRP!

Personally, I think the whole thing is ridiculous. We should have never have kept interest rates at zero for seven years in the first place. Unintended consequences and all that.

Agreed, and NIRP is another whole set of issues if ever used. I asked the veterans who presented if we have ever seen this length of minimal rates since the Fed was instituted, they confirmed my understanding. NO. We're really in uncharted waters and the Fed is in even deeper water.

Meanwhile, TSLA will have an amazing 2016 delivering an incredible amount of amazing cars and SUVs. As wild as the MS caught on, I think everyone is way underestimating the tidal wave of demand for the MX.

 

[Causalien]

Agreed, and NIRP is another whole set of issues if ever used. I asked the veterans who presented if we have ever seen this length of minimal rates since the Fed was instituted, they confirmed my understanding. NO. We're really in uncharted waters and the Fed is in even deeper water.

Meanwhile, TSLA will have an amazing 2016 delivering an incredible amount of amazing cars and SUVs. As wild as the MS caught on, I think everyone is way underestimating the tidal wave of demand for the MX.

NIRP will bring about huge lowering if risk in financial markets due to arbitrage. It'll create risk in even safe companies due to how over valued their stocks are. People will stop working and just live off the spread of the credit spread. Until everything goes poof. At which point you can declare bankruptcy having enjoyed several hears of free ride.

 

[Drax7]

Dramatically Lower oil prices will benefit the world and USA economy, we all know that.

Moreover my hypothesis is that lower oil prices will sustain the economic expansion
for a much longer period of time, hence the odds of a recession
are diminished.

Non inflationary growth will be extended for a longer period of time,
most likely allowing for model 3 to launch before a downturn.

 

[JRP3]

But, but, it will kill demand for EV's, cause the only reason people buy them is to save on gas....

 

[FluxCap]

A few Saturday morning links for you:

OpenAI

Elon Musk announces the formation of a new Artificial Intelligence research company, OpenAI : technology

In smog-choked China, drivers check out electric cars

 

[MitchJi]

But, but, it will kill demand for EV's, cause the only reason people buy them is to save on gas....

Not exactly. Part of the reason that the MS is a superior car is that Tesla has done an amazing job designing and building the car, but part of the reason is that EV's are inherently superior.