Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[FredTMC]

There's now only 65 "inventory" cars on the Tesla website. Was 70 this morning.

Looks like they'll definitely sell thru these remaining ones by year end unless they post more.

62 "inventory" cars currently. Down 3 from yesterday.

 

[Johan]

I suspect at this point the X is not going to help much in terms of delivery numbers for Q4, and it's all up to outstanding execution on S deliveries to meet expectations for the quarter and save the stock from more weakness.

What wouldn't surprise me is if in the next conf call Elon says well deliveries of X were negligible in Q4, but production! production was awesome, and things ramped up fantastically in the last two weeks of Dec, but those produced X's couldn't count as deliveries until Q1....

This is clearly their strategy. They have focused on S for Q4. That can please Wall Street somewhat, but what they say about the X ramp up is going to be very important too, going forward.

 

[Drax7]

Exclusive pics and videos of the model during various stages of assembly!!!!

EXCLUSIVE: FACTORY IMAGES AND VIDEOS OF THE MODEL X | EV And More

thanks for video, they give me holding power.

I believe what i see.

 

[austinEV]

This is clearly their strategy. They have focused on S for Q4. That can please Wall Street somewhat, but what they say about the X ramp up is going to be very important too, going forward.

I agree this is what is likely. The Q4 shareholder letter "message" will be good, concrete results on model S deliveries, and vague but positive words on the X. They will probably say they built 100 or something but no word on deliveries (much lower, 10-20) and substitute guidance.

 

[hobbes]

Very cool pics! What I found disturbing was the noise in the video - I thought the robots were perfectly quiet and they are playing cool elecronic music in the factory at all times ?!

Seriously, while this confirms they are building Xs, it still doesn´t tell us when they will be finishing them in large quantities (say hundreds). Could be all on hold waiting for some part.

Exclusive pics and videos of the model during various stages of assembly!!!!

EXCLUSIVE: FACTORY IMAGES AND VIDEOS OF THE MODEL X | EV And More

- - - Updated - - -

I agree this is what is likely. The Q4 shareholder letter "message" will be good, concrete results on model S deliveries, and vague but positive words on the X. They will probably say they built 100 or something but no word on deliveries (much lower, 10-20) and substitute guidance.

Someone in another thread where the new factory pics were posted first thinks he can make out a Sig 624 Vin in one of the pictures... I came up with the same number independently but it is still a stretch as the resolution just isn´t enough.

 

[The Blue Owl]

I agree this is what is likely. The Q4 shareholder letter "message" will be good, concrete results on model S deliveries, and vague but positive words on the X. They will probably say they built 100 or something but no word on deliveries (much lower, 10-20) and substitute guidance.

If so, I predict the stock will go lower in the short term. Tales from the future headlines: "Tesla misses Model X targets. Tesla struggles to ramp up Model X production. What do Tesla's Model X manufacturing troubles mean for the stock? Is Elon Musk invincible? Audi announces Tesla killer."

And then the price will recover.

 

[MartinAustin]

What I found disturbing was the noise in the video

I was very happy to see not a music video, but footage that accurately depicts what is going on in the factory. It must be a busy place. This is the nearest thing to getting a factory tour

TSLA continues to fall due to unfounded Model X woes. If I needed to sell any of my stock right now, I'd be crying. Fortunately, I'm in it for longer than this "wrinkle du jour," and I am confident it'll be much higher in 2016 when it is clear to the media that Tesla makes TWO of the best cars out there, not just one. We'll also be seeing a lot more of the Gigafactory and Model 3.

I have buy orders set at $210.

 

[dmunjal]

I was very happy to see not a music video, but footage that accurately depicts what is going on in the factory. It must be a busy place. This is the nearest thing to getting a factory tour

TSLA continues to fall due to unfounded Model X woes. If I needed to sell any of my stock right now, I'd be crying. Fortunately, I'm in it for longer than this "wrinkle du jour," and I am confident it'll be much higher in 2016 when it is clear to the media that Tesla makes TWO of the best cars out there, not just one. We'll also be seeing a lot more of the Gigafactory and Model 3.

I have buy orders set at $210.

Model X woes aren't new. TSLA is falling with the rest of the market.

 

[hobbes]

TSLA continues to fall due to unfounded Model X woes. If I needed to sell any of my stock right now, I'd be crying. Fortunately, I'm in it for longer than this "wrinkle du jour," and I am confident it'll be much higher in 2016 when it is clear to the media that Tesla makes TWO of the best cars out there, not just one. We'll also be seeing a lot more of the Gigafactory and Model 3.

I have buy orders set at $210.

Don´t forget NASDAQ is down 2%... I am thinking about buying some more, too.

 

[gene]

I have buy orders set at $210.

We might not see $210. If you are feeling confident, you might want to add about now. I just bought an addition 250 shares.

 

[Bobbyducati]

got rid of some puts i shoulda dumped earlier in the week, guess i got a second chance. back on up to 235$, please!

 

[maoing]

You never know. Bad macros, Q4 miss, Model X delay, oil price crash and bear attack for short covering, any of them can easily push down SP by 10 or even 20 points.

We might not see $210. If you are feeling confident, you might want to add about now. I just bought an addition 250 shares.

 

[MitchJi]

I agree this is what is likely. The Q4 shareholder letter "message" will be good, concrete results on model S deliveries, and vague but positive words on the X. They will probably say they built 100 or something but no word on deliveries (much lower, 10-20) and substitute guidance.

If they are producing cars for delivery in CA or western US, the delivery numbers could be close to matching production numbers.

The pictures and video seem to indicate that the production problems (i.e. seal and trim placement) have been resolved.

When they announce numbers in early January if they can say something like "52k MS deliveries, 200-500 MX deliveries" I think that would be sufficient to boost the SP. This seems likely if my assumption that the production problems have been resolved is correct.

In February when the Q4 shareholder letter "message" and CC happen they are not limited to announcing Q4 delivery results. IMO, given the pictures and video, I think that it seems extremely likely that they will be able to say that they have hit their Mid-December goal of producing "several hundred per week", which I think would be excellent.

Even if they miss Mid-December goal, if by Mid-January they can hit and report that they have hit their of producing "several hundred per week", at this point I think that would be very good.

I think that either scenario would be enough to bump the SP. I think the only possible issue is that SP could take a hit in Jan due to MX, but even if that happens I expect a nice recovery in February.

 

[austinEV]

Mitch: Good point, by the time they are crafting a message they will have 5-6 weeks of additional news to discuss.

 

[FredTMC]

If they are producing cars for delivery in CA or western US, the delivery numbers could be close to matching production numbers.

The pictures and video seem to indicate that the production problems (i.e. seal and trim placement) have been resolved.

When they announce numbers in early January if they can say something like "52k MS deliveries, 200-500 MX deliveries" I think that would be sufficient to boost the SP. This seems likely if my assumption that the production problems have been resolved is correct.

In February when the Q4 shareholder letter "message" and CC happen they are not limited to announcing Q4 delivery results. IMO, given the pictures and video, I think that it seems extremely likely that they will be able to say that they have hit their Mid-December goal of producing "several hundred per week", which I think would be excellent.

Even if they miss Mid-December goal, if by Mid-January they can hit and report that they have hit their of producing "several hundred per week", at this point I think that would be very good.

I think that either scenario would be enough to bump the SP. I think the only possible issue is that SP could take a hit in Jan due to MX, but even if that happens I expect a nice recovery in February.

+1.

Nothing we we can do about overall market but I confident in Q4 results

 

[ludicrousspeed]

When they announce numbers in early January if they can say something like "52k MS deliveries, 200-500 MX deliveries" I think that would be sufficient to boost the SP.

52K MS deliveries seems a bit optimistic. I think most in this forum and the market as a whole would be very happy with 50K total deliveries, even if MX only accounts for 100-200 of those. I do think, however, that the prediction of "producing and delivering an average of 1,600-1,800 cars per week throughout 2016" is being underestimated. Once Tesla puts out their yearly delivery guidance as one whole number I think it will create positive momentum.

 

[dc_h]

They did re-affirm deliveries this week. If they miss now, that is a big miss. It seemed like a solid prediction when Elon affirmed the quarterly numbers on November 3rd. If they reaffirm with 3 weeks in the month and can't back it up, that will hurt. I am personally confident that they will hit 52,000. It may be 52,001, but it will be in range. I'm still also holding out for some X deliveries. It seems they are producing more X's than they are delivering. We've had more than one report of cars in production and on the lot.

52K MS deliveries seems a bit optimistic. I think most in this forum and the market as a whole would be very happy with 50K total deliveries, even if MX only accounts for 100-200 of those. I do think, however, that the prediction of "producing and delivering an average of 1,600-1,800 cars per week throughout 2016" is being underestimated. Once Tesla puts out their yearly delivery guidance as one whole number I think it will create positive momentum.

 

[Papafox]

Between yesterday's Duetsche Bank report
and today's video and photos from EVandmore.com ,
we know that Model X vehicles are being built at present.

Some threads of TM and TMC forums such as this one continue to report signature X owners being told of December deliveries.

I think we'll see one of two things: either deliveries starting soon or the realization that some part is missing and deliveries will start in another couple of weeks, but at a pace that reflects Model X cars having been put on the sidelines for quick completion once the missing part is made available. Personally, I'd like to see some windshields in those Model X vehicles under production.

 

[Causalien]

Between yesterday's Duetsche Bank report
and today's video and photos from EVandmore.com ,
we know that Model X vehicles are being built at present.

Some threads of TM and TMC forums such as this one continue to report signature X owners being told of December deliveries.

I think we'll see one of two things: either deliveries starting soon or the realization that some part is missing and deliveries will start in another couple of weeks, but at a pace that reflects Model X cars having been put on the sidelines for quick completion once the missing part is made available. Personally, I'd like to see some windshields in those Model X vehicles under production.

I Get the feeling that it will be something like 51729 Model S and 134 Model X for the year.

Yeaj, definitely pulled this number out of my ass

 

[aznt1217]

Lot's of fear over China. Over in the macro-thread we're just seeing an advance sell off for next week. Crude movements don't help our case today either.