Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[MikeC]

Pretty active after hours with some bigger orders. Could these be the market makers buying their positions back after they sold them to push the price down to max pain?

 

[doctoxics]

Check out the Model X threads. Seems that an employee is telling one of our bloggers that every other car coming off of the assembly line is a Model X!

 

[Bobbyducati]

Check out the Model X threads. Seems that an employee is telling one of our bloggers that every other car coming off of the assembly line is a Model X!

Leak: “every other car off the line is the X”

for the lazy

 

[MitchJi]

Indeed. And today is Triple Witching Day, the major quarterly expiration of stock related options and futures. Manipulation designed to close a stock at an important exercise price, particularly the “max pain” price, is especially prevalent on such a day, more so than at ordinary monthly expiration's or Fridays in general. This tactic allows the big operators like hedge funds who were generally writers/sellers of the options to keep the full premiums given to them by buyers of the options who are generally retail traders.

If trading volume on an expiration day in a particular stock is relatively light, then as you note the manipulation becomes easier. The pressure by manipulators to push TSLA down to $230 appears to be in force today. There’s a lot of open interest for both TSLA calls and puts at that exercise price at today’s expiration. That pressure should no longer be in effect on Monday.

Share price moves during a major options expiration day are often reversed the following Monday.

Even if we don't directly trade it, can we use that information in our buying and selling? Today's "Triple Witching Day" is known in advance. The light trading day was easy to see coming. Maybe with a volatile stock like TSLA those factors aren't critical?

But to use that in our buying and selling we need to at least know the direction of the movement. Knowing the target price would be even better. Is it possible to find out in advance, either the target price or at least the direction of the movement?

Examples of using that information in our buying and selling:
Option purchases, today I paid $5.30 for Mar $280 calls, that closed at $4.45 (strikes forehead with palm).
Rolling LEAPS or rolling other options, a potential opportunity to sell at a higher and buy at a lower price.
Longer term purchases, buying shares or AIMc buying LEAPS.

If this is normally "reversed the following Monday" first thing this Monday might be a good time to make purchases or day trade calls (grumble our cash balance is $8.24).

 

[jhm]

Noteworthy that they see a path hundreds of billions in sales?


I don't believe that they will be close to competing on price with Tesla, but I think demand will be so huge (batteries at $850 kWh are cheaper than natural gas peakers), that they will be close enough on price that they and Tesla will both be able to sell as many batteries as they can produce.


In terms of needing to compete with natural gas peakers that's irrelevent. But in terms of added demand that's important, and something I didn't know. Thanks!

We're on the same page. The relevance about pairing storage with solar is that it competes with existing peaking capacity. A standalone storage facility will compete favorably with demand for new peaking capacity, but that is slower uptake than pushing existing capacity out of the market.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Even if we don't directly trade it, can we use that information in our buying and selling? Today's "Triple Witching Day" is known in advance. The light trading day was easy to see coming. Maybe with a volatile stock like TSLA those factors aren't critical?

But to use that in our buying and selling we need to at least know the direction of the movement. Knowing the target price would be even better. Is it possible to find out in advance, either the target price or at least the direction of the movement?

Examples of using that information in our buying and selling:
Option purchases, today I paid $5.30 for Mar $280 calls, that closed at $4.45 (strikes forehead with palm).
Rolling LEAPS or rolling other options, a potential opportunity to sell at a higher and buy at a lower price.
Longer term purchases, buying shares or AIMc buying LEAPS.

If this is normally "reversed the following Monday" first thing this Monday might be a good time to make purchases or day trade calls (grumble our cash balance is $8.24).

Yes I would definitely like to know what the price will be each day in the morning

 

[dakh]

SpaceX launch delayed to Sunday, they had problems with deep cryo oxy and a few other things but static fire test was good after all.

 

[Curt Renz]

Is it possible to find out in advance, either the target price or at least the direction of the movement?

It's likely the published "Max Pain" price, unless that's unreasonably far from the current price.

Link to the Max Pain webpage for TSLA: TSLA | maximum-pain.com

Today Max Pain was $230 based on yesterday's close.

In essence, Max Pain is the strike price at which option buyers lose the most and option writers get to keep the most.

 

[MikeC]

Sig 1 delivered!

Signature #1 delivered today

 

[vgrinshpun]

Looks like there is a X-mass party at Tesla tonight:

 

[Auzie]

I corrected it. Being PC is important I heard, "across the pond".

We've progressed to whiskey now btw.

Sharing is caring, so share some around, whatever it is

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Sig 1 delivered!

Signature #1 delivered today

This is a hopeful sign that production will start to ramp at a serious rate. With a new model in a hot product segment, there is a ton of revenue and profit potential for Tesla in the next year or so. My guess is that there will be little impact in the Q4 '15 results, but that Q1 '16 could be a milestone.

 

[FluxCap]

Sig 1 delivered!

Signature #1 delivered today

Awesome.

 

[hobbes]

This is a hopeful sign that production will start to ramp at a serious rate. With a new model in a hot product segment, there is a ton of revenue and profit potential for Tesla in the next year or so. My guess is that there will be little impact in the Q4 '15 results, but that Q1 '16 could be a milestone.

Looks like it has already ramped, according to this: Leak: “every other car off the line is the X”

This is as reliable a leak as it gets, with a long term well known forum member vouching for it. This seems to be becoming a quite merry X-Mass for all of us! Good timing with regard to share price, with the news having time to spread over the weekend! Really looking forward to next week. Happy I got a few more shares last week expecting something like that.

 

[spentan]

I have calls expiring Jan 15. Hoping for some rallying up to $260 and beyond (one can only dream)

 

[vgrinshpun]

There is something unusual happening with the estimated delivery times in US - they moved out by 2.5 month in just one week. I think that we are on the verge of some surprising developments.

 

[madodel]

There is something unusual happening with the estimated delivery times in US - they moved out by 2.5 month in just one week. I think that we are on the verge of some surprising developments.

They have ignored export for a month while they ramped up deliveries of S to US and production of the X. January should see a big pushout of cars to Europe, China and elsewhere. So US deliveries will slow down except for the rest of the Sig and the production X's.

I want my Model X. ;-)

 

[vgrinshpun]

Well, this is a logical first choice to explain this, but numbers are so staggering, that this can't be the only explanation.

Current MS production is 1200 cars/week. Let's assume that Tesla plans to produce only overseas orders within the next month (unlikely because they need to gradually shift from the back loading deliveries toward the end of the quarter, but let's assume that this is the case). So based on the above the 3 month worth of the orders for NA becomes 2 months worth of orders. Assuming that average NA production allocation within these two month would be an average of 60% of total will yield 1200 x 0.6 x 8 = 5,760 NA orders in just one week. This is equivalent to yearly rate of oncoming orders of about 300K cars/year - a crazy high number...

I am trying to spin numbers several different ways, and the more I do this, the more obvious it is that something unusual going on.

 

[Krugerrand]

I am trying to spin numbers several different ways, and the more I do this, the more obvious it is that something unusual going on.

Clearly there is a demand problem and Tesla is covering this up by artificially extending delivery times out. This fits right in with the demand has peaked theory so rightly put forth just two years ago. Tesla will produce only X's for this time period and clear their back order and hope that during that time some people will order the S again because after the back log of X's is filled - and we know that cancellation rate for the X reservations is through the roof, duh! no folding second row seats - well...you get the idea. Tesla is done like dinner.

On the other hand...*insert dramatic movie music: du, du, du, duuuuuuuuuuuuuu*

 

[MitchJi]

I am trying to spin numbers several different ways, and the more I do this, the more obvious it is that something unusual going on.

Maybe they are going to produce a very high percentage of MX's. Is there any reason that they can't shift to 100% MX production for 2-3 months. 10 weeks x 1600-1800 per week would pretty much clear the backlog.