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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Thanks Curt! I understood the concept, but I didn't know how to get the number.
Thanks Again!
Clearly there is a demand problem and Tesla is covering this up by artificially extending delivery times out. This fits right in with the demand has peaked theory so rightly put forth just two years ago. Tesla will produce only X's for this time period and clear their back order and hope that during that time some people will order the S again because after the back log of X's is filled - and we know that cancellation rate for the X reservations is through the roof, duh! no folding second row seats - well...you get the idea. Tesla is done like dinner.
On the other hand...*insert dramatic movie music: du, du, du, duuuuuuuuuuuuuu*
LOL, I am so glad for Santos, he is not ready to concede that demand problem does not exist, but at least he covered his short position...
My armchair theory is that they have been building a high quantity of 99% finished Model X's without second row seats for weeks now and storing them out of sight. In-house seats are probably now rolling off the line in Fremont as well, ready to be bolted into the waiting X's, and Elon and the whole team are preparing to deliver an unexpectedly huge volume of Model X's on the US market in these final weeks of 2015.
Not sure if that synchronizes with your math, but it's just a hunch I had.
Let's not forget that a Falcon9 is set to launch in a few hours with experimental deep-cryo oxy fuel. I don't think that TSLA receives much positive movement for a success, but does get punished if there's another failure after this 6-month flight hiatus. Godspeed to SpaceX this evening! How fitting, with the massive success of Star Wars: TFA, if another Falcon can successfully launch AND land :smile:
Vlad: My 'take' on the NA wait time increase comes from the recent reveal that the end of line numbers are 50:50 S:X. If that is so all the Xs are NA bound in Q1 and almost all the Ss are for everyone outside of NA. This may be too simplistic thinking but that is what I am known for.... 
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Vlad: My 'take' on the NA wait time increase comes from the recent reveal that the end of line numbers are 50:50 S:X. If that is so all the Xs are NA bound in Q1 and almost all the Ss are for everyone outside of NA. This may be too simplistic thinking but that is what I am known for....
That sounds like a good possibility to me. But Vlad appears to think it's an impossibility.
Exactly. Someone recently made a table showing estimated delivery times for Model S all over the world. If I remember correctly, US/Canada is February, everywhere else is March. That means they need to be built and on the boat by early/mid February to make Q1 sales numbers (which they hope will be cash positive). They have basically ignored the rest of the world for the last month, so I'm sure there is a big backlog of Model S for the rest of the world. Demand continues to grow. Most people who buy a luxury car other than a Model S at this point, and drive less than 200 miles a day, just don't know much about Tesla and haven't driven one yet. As their friends get one, and show it to them, and explain that there is no range anxiety when you fill up every night with a 2 second plug in, the demand just keeps growing.
Another data point! Sig owner with a VIN just under 1200 just posted that his delivery was moved from the end of December to beginning of January. I think 700+ Sigs by the end of the year is attainable!
"Talked to my DS yesterday and now he's saying first of January as opposed to week after Christmas. Drat.
He gave some interesting tidbit though. His concern at this point is that the factory is taking a lot of time for final inspection and so it's really hard to predict how long it takes from the vehicle being built to being released from inspection. Also, the local delivery folks to an additional inspection before delivery and they're not sure how long that's going to take given that they've never done them before. He did say that the first Oregon Model Xs are arriving and he hopes to have a better idea how long the local inspection will take. He confirmed that the computer system is really accurate a tracking Model S build progress and almost worthless tracking Model X. Mostly because they're taking all the time they need to do the inspections."
"Talked to my DS yesterday and now he's saying first of January as opposed to week after Christmas. Drat.
He gave some interesting tidbit though. His concern at this point is that the factory is taking a lot of time for final inspection and so it's really hard to predict how long it takes from the vehicle being built to being released from inspection. Also, the local delivery folks to an additional inspection before delivery and they're not sure how long that's going to take given that they've never done them before. He did say that the first Oregon Model Xs are arriving and he hopes to have a better idea how long the local inspection will take. He confirmed that the computer system is really accurate a tracking Model S build progress and almost worthless tracking Model X. Mostly because they're taking all the time they need to do the inspections."
Krugerrand
Meow
That's making the assumption that they are building, batching and delivering Sigs in VIN order, which is extremely, highly doubtful given that Sigs 1-200 aren't all from California and Sigs 201-400 aren't all from New York etc... So let's reign in the exciting speculations a bit before it gets blown out of proportion, picked up by the media, then flogged to death only to then be met by disappointment and then a slew of negative headlines.
Asking TSLA investors to reign in the hype is like asking Tesla customers to be patient with promised updates
+1
Krug rocks :smile:
Absolutely, positively and unconditionally agree. :wink:
EDIT: This just posted in another thread:
Posted by Lyon in response/as update: 'I should change that. 1192 was my sequence number but my assigned VIN is 415.'
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Absolutely, positively and unconditionally agree. :wink:
EDIT: This just posted in another thread:
Originally Posted by rdalcanto
Lyon - With Signature #1192, aren't you one of the last? And they are saying first of January? That is great for the rest of us!!!
Posted by Lyon in response/as update: 'I should change that. 1192 was my sequence number but my assigned VIN is 415.'
Correct. Lyon updated that his VIN is actually 415, and not 1192. Darn. Still 1/3 of the sigs in the next 2 weeks....
Krugerrand
Meow
Again, probably not. You've not accounted for cancellations nor batching logistics.
Business Insider Car of the Year 2015 is Model X: As we waited for our turn behind the wheel, Tesla let us check out a customer's Model X. | Business Insider India
CNN announces the Tesla Model X as the #1 best SUV! CNN Crowns Tesla Model X the New King of Crossover SUVs | CleanTechnica
CNN announces the Tesla Model X as the #1 best SUV! CNN Crowns Tesla Model X the New King of Crossover SUVs | CleanTechnica
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Apparently Tesla has become a synonym term for innovator/disrupter. Google
+"The Tesla of "
and get 42,700 results. And what is weird is that when I Googled
+"The Google of "
the first link to show up is about Tesla. ;-)
+"The Tesla of "
and get 42,700 results. And what is weird is that when I Googled
+"The Google of "
the first link to show up is about Tesla. ;-)
Almost, but not quite - article title is "2015 Car of the Year Finalist: The remarkable Tesla Model X" - sorry if I spoiled the party...
2015 Car of the Year Finalist: The remarkable Tesla Model X | Business Insider India
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