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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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As we all knew, but very nice to see this mentioned by someone who cares (Elon Musk on Twitter):
Elon MuskVerifizierter Account @elonmusk
Tesla Model S has highest value retention after three years
http://img03.en25.com/Web/NADAUCG/%7B413f55a5-807f-4b2e-8310-48cd4aeb40da%7D_April_2015_NADA_Perspective.pdf …
08:15 - 23. Juni 2015
Update (Elon Musk on Twitter):
Important to note that Model S resale value is also higher than that of gasoline cars
08:20 - 23. Juni 2015
I think it's worth noting that this initial 3 year resale value data is in regard to the 2012 Model S... so many features have been added to the Model S in the past three years since production began. While Tesla continues to improve its vehicles faster than other automakers and will do so for years to come, generally the value gap between a 3 year old Model S and the option of buying the current year Model S will shrink as the years go by.
As we all knew, but very nice to see this mentioned by someone who cares (Elon Musk on Twitter):
Tesla Model S has highest value retention after three years
http://img03.en25.com/Web/NADAUCG/%7B413f55a5-807f-4b2e-8310-48cd4aeb40da%7D_April_2015_NADA_Perspective.pdf …
This report is highly inaccurate, for the same reason all articles about EV value retention are inaccurate. In fact, this looks almost exactly the same as that article a couple months ago talking about how terrible EV resale value is, and that low gas prices mean nobody will ever want to buy an EV, etc. etc.
The problem is that none of them ever take into account tax credits. This one mentions them at the bottom, but does not include them in the original MSRP numbers. It states that the Leaf MSRP is 36,733 - this is not the case. Leafs come with $7500-$12500 of tax credits, so it's obvious that if someone had a brand new Leaf with 0 miles on it and was trying to sell it to you used, you wouldn't pay 36,733, you wouldn't even pay 30,000, because you could get a brand new one from a dealer for less than that. So if you take this into account, then EVs will look like they lose value quickly. But they don't. It's like selling a car with 10 grand in the back seat, then taking the 10 grand out of the car and complaining that now the car is worth 10 grand less.
Now compare this to the effect that the credits have on cheaper and more expensive cars. 10k will be a smaller percentage of 90k than it is of 30k. So the cheaper car loses 33% immediately, whereas the more expensive car loses 11% immediately.
Unsurprisingly, the cars on that list are arranged in order of more expensive to cheapest. Because this rather large effect is going to affect the cheaper ones more.
Now, none of this is to say that the S has bad value retention, it obviously has good value retention, esp compared to gasoline vehicles - and taking the credit into account will only make it look even better. But the problem is that people will look at the other EVs and say that they have bad value retention compared to gasoline vehicles, when this is not really the case. These numbers need to be taken into account.
Further, the report goes on to talk about how EV demand is slowing (it's not) because gas is cheaper (it's not), suggests that gas prices will not recover to their previous levels quickly (they have - and nationally, just 2 months after this report was compiled, they are 20 cents higher today than the report forecasts them to be at the end of 2016), suggests that incentives were implemented as a reaction to low gas prices (they weren't), suggests that incentives will end soon due to budgeting pressure (in some states maybe, federally there is no indication that they will), mentions that warranties are running out on older EVs even though the most important part of the vehicle is warranted for much longer than the rest (battery, 8-10 years), and even started the whole thing with a hit on EVs calling them expensive and saying "not much has changed" since the 1900s. Note also that it was written by NADA, who are openly hostile to EVs and Tesla in particular.
So basically, this report is trash. Either the people who wrote it are not competent, or it was intended as a hitpiece on EVs - probably both. Either way, the incentive thing is one *extremely basic oversight* which nobody caught before releasing this report, and that's enough to toss the entire report in the trash, because clearly they have no idea what they're talking about.
But we can all take heart in this too, because it means that these industry "experts," who ought to know something like that, are still clueless. We still have an information edge on them.
It's a bit troubling that Elon didn't catch this, though. I'd put it down to time and optimism though. He probably didn't read the report, and doesn't expect anyone else to, and just wants to share that his car is the best.
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Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Thanks for a very accurate post. I agree on all points. In fact the whole "value retention" concept is flawed - demand is very high for new Teslas, the company is production constrained, obviously demand will be high for second hand Teslas too which helps keep the second hand pricing up.
It shows demand is still high and somewhat that the cars don't fall apart after a few years (which if they did would cause a sharp decline in demand for new Teslas of course).
chickensevil
Active Member
Yeah, pretty much everything you just said and then some!
Regarding this line though, I would wager a third option, he realized it, but didn't feel like pointing it out because that would just destroy the point of the tweet. Consider that even WITH the incentives on a Tesla it is still holding a better Residual Value than a Mercedes S Class. Once those incentives drop away it will be even more staggering, which just drives home the point of both tweets. They not only have the best EV, but the. best. car.
Pointing out the flaws would just be distracting, you are limited to 140 characters, or whatever, and it doesn't change the point of the tweets. Best EV. Best Car... Nuff said.
But yes, this article is heavily flawed and it is quite sad that they are still trying to pull the wool over people's eyes on this subject.
doggusfluffy
Closed
Yeah, pretty much everything you just said and then some!
Regarding this line though, I would wager a third option, he realized it, but didn't feel like pointing it out because that would just destroy the point of the tweet. Consider that even WITH the incentives on a Tesla it is still holding a better Residual Value than a Mercedes S Class. Once those incentives drop away it will be even more staggering, which just drives home the point of both tweets. They not only have the best EV, but the. best. car.
Pointing out the flaws would just be distracting, you are limited to 140 characters, or whatever, and it doesn't change the point of the tweets. Best EV. Best Car... Nuff said.
But yes, this article is heavily flawed and it is quite sad that they are still trying to pull the wool over people's eyes on this subject.
Additionally doesn't this bode well for the upcoming CPO numbers? It's also probably personally gratifying for Elon since he was covering the resale guarantee out of his own pocket.
I think DIBA (ev-enthusiast´s broker) only sells "Optionsscheine" (dictionary says warrants), which is not the same as actual options that I think most people here are trading. Might this be a reason why you can´t find those as you are looking for actual options? Might take that over to another thread though...
mmd
Active Member
And this is exactly why the CPO cars are barely moving. 76 out of the 263 on sale were listed on April 27th, the first day the consolidator recorded data. This, despite some big price drops.
The German exchange tradegate that I use published its top 5 for shares traded by private investors in May:
1) Apple Inc., 151 Mio.
2) Gazprom ADR, 56 Mio.
3) Airbus Group, 56 Mio.
4) Dialog Semiconductor plc, 43 Mio.
5) Tesla Motors Inc., 38 Mio.
(Volume in EUR)
Pretty amazing for such a young company.
1) Apple Inc., 151 Mio.
2) Gazprom ADR, 56 Mio.
3) Airbus Group, 56 Mio.
4) Dialog Semiconductor plc, 43 Mio.
5) Tesla Motors Inc., 38 Mio.
(Volume in EUR)
Pretty amazing for such a young company.
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
Yes, their marketing machine is on. Their web design and QA machines, not so much.
Here's what their email looked like when viewed on my iPhone:
For a moment there I thought Elon had gone overboard in geekitude, as I attempted to parse the number 4,186570K raised to the 2000th power. If that's in degrees Kelvin, I'm pretty sure that's hotter than the sun.
If you own both model s and stock: did you buy the Car first or the stock?
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Yes, their marketing machine is on. Their web design and QA machines, not so much.
Here's what their email looked like when viewed on my iPhone:
View attachment 85112
For a moment there I thought Elon had gone overboard in geekitude, as I attempted to parse the number 4,186570K raised to the 2000th power. If that's in degrees Kelvin, I'm pretty sure that's hotter than the sun.
Looked great on my Samsung Note 4. I guess we know what OS they tested it on.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Gracious, who in his or her right mind would divulge how much stock owned? I wouldn't answer even within an order of magnitude.
Well, you would be surprised - over the years there were plenty of people providing such information, on the TMC as well as in several printed sources...
sub
Active Member
mejojo
Active Member
Well, to be honest, until I see you posting otherwise, I presume that any of y'all that have been around a while have enough money to get rolled for.
What does it matter how many millions?
What does it matter how many millions?
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