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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Agree with all that, i don't think otherwise, either, it is just that the European numbers in so fare were somewhat surprising. Anyway, we'll know tomorrow.
Scott Ales
Member
i hope it's a huge success , though hope is not an investment strategy.
My view is that an electric car ala model s would have been sufficient
And the rest just complicates production and profitability and delays etc.
Purely cost/ benefit as I see it.
hope I am wrong for the sake of my investment
and what bothers me is that Elon is so much smarter than
that. Pure cognitive dissonance here.
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Scott Ales
Member
I think you are right for the short term unfortunately. The real deal is when the Model 3 is being produced for 6 months. Not the unveiling next spring, not the Founders Series launch, real everyday people buying and driving the car for 6 months. That is the ONLY thing that will shut up the Lutz's of the world. Any pops expected before then are very high risk oriented. It's what I signed up for when I started 9 months ago trading TSLA options.
TSLAX
Member
I feel like this could be a beat for Q3. We had a delivery timeframe of Sept. 29 to Oct. 6. No word from DS. My husband contacted him yesterday and said "hey, can we come get the car?" So, it is set for this coming Monday. They were not in a rush to get the car to us and we easily could have arranged to get it before the end of Q3.
In the Q2 ER (or was it Q1??) they said they would no longer be doing pushes at the end of Q's, citing that it generally ended up being a bad or rushed experience for some customers. I totally agree that's the right thing to do, for the right reasons. Of course it gives me a bit of nervousness when I put my TSLA hat on.
On another topic, this morning I look at my stock app, and ... VOW.BE (Volkswagon) is UP $.07, while TSLA is down over $4. I'm pretty sure I can't use three initials on this site so I'll just use the ones previous to them in the alphabet: VSE??????
virtuesoft
Member
I can confirm this. I was in Hong Kong about a month ago. I was there for 3 nights and I counted 32 of them.
With the amount of hate Tesla is getting, we're all contrarians...
This entire month has been a "boring" trading month with things just going red for no reason and staying depressed in general. What we need to realize is Tesla is definitely quieter these days in regards to execution and loud in product announcements. I kind of prefer it this way, but the problem is with PR and marketing there, people overly criticize and turn stuff into what we see in that Yahoo! Finance widget on the side.
For short-termers, I see upside to ~290 for the remainder of 2015 because the next big piece of press we will see is about Powerpak/wall being delivered to Australia and operating. I think we are pretty much at the floor because of the most recent secondary with the green shoe option exercised so I see limited downside.
For long-termers (2016 and on), these levels are super attractive. You get to buy in at or below what the underwriters bought in for "free" thanks to the press spreading muck that we fortunately know is wrong. Tesla is where it was with Model S in Summer 2012, if you really think about it history repeats itself. People can't wrap their heads around the product. You have some reviewers clamoring about how amazing and transformative the X driving experience is and then you have those who are basically hating on the product and company again with a stock that has increased short interest. Elon is personally inspecting the first X cars (again). Also, once we get the energy storage products out (go ahead and tack on an extra $30B onto that market cap because that's the average of power providers in the US who are publicly listed). When the X arrives in NY I'm hoping I'll be able to be one of the first to check it out. When I do, I will return my thoughts and impressions similar to what I did with the S in NY (with the prototype and first drives).
Scott Ales
Member
Ugh, bought in a few days ago at $250 - told myself "you can't catch a falling knife, don't try to time it just buy" Good news is those are the only shares I have "under-water" my overall TSLA investment is doing great!
Now, of course, my gut is telling me to put in a buy order at $240 because it's on-sale and bound to go up in the next month or so. Problem is, I'm hoping to buy a house in the next few weeks, so gambling with my down-payment doesn't appeal to me, even though part of me thinks through probabilities and calculations and thinks it's worth doing, even if I have to pay short-term capital gains.
(Long-term hold, with short-term concerns and an ongoing battle between compulsions and risk-aversion - lol)
Now, of course, my gut is telling me to put in a buy order at $240 because it's on-sale and bound to go up in the next month or so. Problem is, I'm hoping to buy a house in the next few weeks, so gambling with my down-payment doesn't appeal to me, even though part of me thinks through probabilities and calculations and thinks it's worth doing, even if I have to pay short-term capital gains.
(Long-term hold, with short-term concerns and an ongoing battle between compulsions and risk-aversion - lol)
I believe we will be in a downtrend until we start to see delivery dates assigned to Signature X's and invites to the first set of Production X's.
It doesn't mean a thing to the market to invite 1200 potential new owners to configure if there is no delivery date. So once the dates start to be posted on TMC, we will see the stock start to recover. Watch the X forum, and if the dates start to populate then we can expect to see a turnaround and stock price ramp.
I'm personally not a big fan of that suggestion, the model X reveal does affect the short term and it should stay here, even if duplicated in my opinion. One of the draws of this thread is that it's essentially a catch all for discussion on things that will tweak the stock price in the near term, segmenting this cheapens this thread and makes it more of a pain in the ass to find everything quickly.
We have a tesla articles and a fact or fiction thread, but that's never stopped people from posing those articles here as well, as they can affect TSLA and often do. Please try not to make this thread too over specific, I don't want to check 3-4 threads for the info that used to be all here, which I find valuable.
Good call on moving the S40 stuff, that and some of the other very OT discussion moved in the past are what I think the curation focus should be on.
I should add that I think the moderators here generally do a truly terrific job, I just think splitting this into short term price movements and short term price movements because of X reveal is a bit silly and counterproductive.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
larmor
Active Member
The market speaks-- the market wants the premium MX vehicle for everyman. Yet the MX is squarely targeted to the cayenne (as the MS was squarely targeted at the panamera). Air emissions aside, both panamera and cayenne did very well for porsche's (vw linked) bottom line.
Personally, i'm not hauling 8 bags of peat moss or 300 to 400 pounds of furniture in my cayenne, If i had a cayenne, i would pay someone 40$ for shipping, and save my car from dirt and save my back from injury-back pain and herniations are not trivial and not easy to treat.
TM is on target-make a premium product, low volume, make it well, and byproduct is profit. M3 is a mass production everyman car, whose profit is solely based on the parts put in it and volume sold...
Personally, i'm not hauling 8 bags of peat moss or 300 to 400 pounds of furniture in my cayenne, If i had a cayenne, i would pay someone 40$ for shipping, and save my car from dirt and save my back from injury-back pain and herniations are not trivial and not easy to treat.
TM is on target-make a premium product, low volume, make it well, and byproduct is profit. M3 is a mass production everyman car, whose profit is solely based on the parts put in it and volume sold...
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