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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
nice! Not sure if that's a model X or not.
Are you inferring from the tweet that these are brand new robots that were just deployed? I think so too
Attention media. Tesla is gearing up for higher production!
jhm and eepic thanks for bringing up the difference between power and energy.
To be clear, unless the engineer is incompetent (entirely possible), when he says "power" he means kW rather than kWh. Power is instantaneous delivery (like hp), energy is storage (like "gallons of fuel in the tank"). But 500kW is not enough to power 1000 homes, unless those homes are using very little power (that's 12kWh (500W x 24 hours) per day - average US homes use 909kWh per month, so ~30kWh per day, so he's off by a factor of ~3 if you count average energy use, and more if you count "peak" energy use and don't count midnight when most homes use very little power (*edited from original calculations where I was actually off by a lot, ha). What's important is that it's a relatively useless calculation he's doing here.
As for how quickly hydrogen cars can fill up, has anyone here actually filled one up before? They're *very* slow to fill up. I've stood around 15 minutes or so talking to a friend with an F-Cell who I just happened to see pull into a gas station, then she left before the car was even full. The reason is because the highly pressurized hydrogen needs to be kept at a specific temperature and pressure, and so the pumps put a lot of effort into that, and thus the gas can't be filled very rapidly.
Here's a video of Dan Neil filling up an FCX: Filling up a Hydrogen Honda - YouTube
He says "this is a good time to get lunch," mentions you have to turn off your cellphone (which you're supposed to do for gas but nobody does anyway so I guess that doesn't count) and stand 10 feet away, and says it's "slow as christmas." If you check the timestamps, even though I can't quite read them perfectly, it looks like about half the filling took about 6 minutes, which means it took 12 minutes for the ~110 miles of range that he put into the car. Tesla claims 170 miles in 30 minutes from superchargers. So, basically, the hydrogen car, for all it's vaunted "instant refueling", can be filled in about 40% less time than a Tesla in exactly 13 locations spread across 4 regions (metro SF and LA, one in SC, one in CT) in the US.
So much better for road tripping!
To be clear, unless the engineer is incompetent (entirely possible), when he says "power" he means kW rather than kWh. Power is instantaneous delivery (like hp), energy is storage (like "gallons of fuel in the tank"). But 500kW is not enough to power 1000 homes, unless those homes are using very little power (that's 12kWh (500W x 24 hours) per day - average US homes use 909kWh per month, so ~30kWh per day, so he's off by a factor of ~3 if you count average energy use, and more if you count "peak" energy use and don't count midnight when most homes use very little power (*edited from original calculations where I was actually off by a lot, ha). What's important is that it's a relatively useless calculation he's doing here.
As for how quickly hydrogen cars can fill up, has anyone here actually filled one up before? They're *very* slow to fill up. I've stood around 15 minutes or so talking to a friend with an F-Cell who I just happened to see pull into a gas station, then she left before the car was even full. The reason is because the highly pressurized hydrogen needs to be kept at a specific temperature and pressure, and so the pumps put a lot of effort into that, and thus the gas can't be filled very rapidly.
Here's a video of Dan Neil filling up an FCX: Filling up a Hydrogen Honda - YouTube
He says "this is a good time to get lunch," mentions you have to turn off your cellphone (which you're supposed to do for gas but nobody does anyway so I guess that doesn't count) and stand 10 feet away, and says it's "slow as christmas." If you check the timestamps, even though I can't quite read them perfectly, it looks like about half the filling took about 6 minutes, which means it took 12 minutes for the ~110 miles of range that he put into the car. Tesla claims 170 miles in 30 minutes from superchargers. So, basically, the hydrogen car, for all it's vaunted "instant refueling", can be filled in about 40% less time than a Tesla in exactly 13 locations spread across 4 regions (metro SF and LA, one in SC, one in CT) in the US.
So much better for road tripping!
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The volume looks to have been around 1.6 million today. I wonder how long this low volume will keep up for.
The link included goes to this wsj page, and the video says the robots were installed 6 months ago...
At Tesla, Workers Team Up With Robot Superheroes
Wonder why Tesla tweeted it then.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Wow, thanks for the info on hydrogen filling times. So around 40 minute for a weeks worth of range. I was making the assumption that a weeks worth of range could be dispensed in about 12 minutes. That's how I got to 50 cars per day, 5 per hour X 10 hours per day. So something like 15 max per day is more realistic. So now the filling infrastructure capex is $20k to $40k per FCV at full to half utilization, respectively. This is obscene.
The economics of battery swapping have got to be much better than that, if you absolutely need 310 mile range in under 12 minutes.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
In all fairness I think this is old filling technology. I spoke to a Norwegian motor journalist who last year test drove the Mirai in Japan, at an event. He personally filled the tank from "almost empty" to full in 6 minutes, from a Toyota branded pump. I know this because I read a short article he had written in a the magazine of the Norwegian equivalent to AAA, but he didn't specify the time it took, only that it was "pretty quick" so I e-mailed him and he said "6 minutes".
I mean, I'm willing to believe that it's possible to do it faster. But I would want to see some real world timestamps rather than information which has been estimated at a Toyota event. If we want to talk about how fast a car can refill at a special event, then Tesla wins with 90 seconds ;-)
Thing is, though, we've been pumping pressurized gases for a long time, so it seems like if people were going to make it faster they already would have. Also, the issue seems to be with temperature - if the day is particularly hot or cold, or the tanks are kept out in the world instead of a climate-controlled environment of a special event, and they're being used in the real world instead of installed specifically for that event, that's probably going to slow things down a little bit. So unless Toyota is going to start putting these filling stations everywhere on corridors like Tesla has done, and they actually do fill up as quickly as your journalist friend estimates (I've heard plenty of people estimate "5 minutes" because that's what Toyota says, yet I have not seen it happen myself, nor have I seen a real world video of it), then I think we can still say that hydrogen doesn't fill all that quickly.
This might be true, but since the gas has to be at an insane pressure I beleive they only keep a small part of the gas in such a high pressure and the main storage is kept at lower pressure that is cheaper to maintain. A bit like a burst battery. I would make sure an engineer can guarantee that they can refill Mirais every 6 minutes for 10 hours straight or again the actual usability isn't good enough. I would like to see some proper specs on exactly how much such a pump can deliver for a week of use and what the energy costs are.
It wouldn't surprise me if the reality is a lot less rose-tinted than the FCV fans says. I've looked into some electrolyser H2 pumps and they seem to have a pityfull daily production.
Cobos
jhm
Well-Known Member
One thing that the battery swapping station does for this dicussion is that it measures the demand for a 5 minute full charge over what the Supercharger can yield. If people really are not willing to pay much for this premium service, then it suggest that the quick filling feature of FCVs is not really not worth much. So it's a nice little economic experiment.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
But guys, this guy on stocktwits (short term so related!) told me the Mirai is no joke, the Model S is dated and old technology, has a dated battery, and Tesla was left by Toyota because Tesla is stuck in the past and not as smart as Toyota to adopt this new technology!! He really convinced me to support Fuel Cell Vehicles!
Altus1 - $PLUG $TSLA $TM - Mirai Takes the Stage at the National Mall... | StockTwits
Altus1 - $PLUG $TSLA $TM - Mirai Takes the Stage at the National Mall... | StockTwits
jhm
Well-Known Member
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
MartinAustin
Active Member
Honestly it's not worth linking to those on here. Those types of things aren't "news" that we can use to discuss the stock. They're just "detractors." Suggestion: just throw them straight into here - Articles re Tesla—Fact or Fiction? - Page 7
So, this guy shows up at a Toyota H2 filling station and fills up in 6 minutes. Great. Did he have a second Mirai and show up immediately after and try to fill it? This works fine at gas stations and Superchargers, but funnily enough does not work at current H2 filling stations; they take quite a while to generate and compress more H2. So imagine, after work on Friday night, you drive 20 miles out of your way (if you happen to be in the right city), to fill your Mirai, and there's a message on the pump screen that basically translates as "Please twiddle your thumbs for 30 minutes before I can refill you."
Note: also an argument against battery swap stations with limited inventory of batteries.
Note: also an argument against battery swap stations with limited inventory of batteries.
It IS useful if you're Toyota and need to support your unworkable hydrogen fuel cell vehicle scheme by pretending Superchargers with battery packs don't exist, and fast charging typical 100kW-hour EV battery in 12 minutes needs to be done direct from the electric grid.
Also, some more on power vs. energy:
Re: Electric cars won't spread even with rapid chargers -Toyota engineer
Reuters, 16Apr2015 by Chang-Ran Kim
"If you were to charge a car in 12 minutes for a range of 500 km (310 miles), for example, you're probably using up electricity required to power 1,000 houses…that totally goes against the need to stabilise electricity use on the grid."
How Toyota got fast-charging EVs takes the "electricity required to power 1,000 houses" (several commenters wonder about this):
Apparently by "electricity" Toyota means power, not energy:
Power needed to charge a battery with 100kWh of energy in 12 minutes:
Power = energy/time = 100kW-hour/(12/60 hour) = 500 kW
Power needed to supply a typical house for 12 minutes, given typical energy use:
909 kW-hour/month * (1/30 month/day) * (1/24 day/hour)*(12/60 hour) = 0.253 kW
(given 909kWh/month average residential utility customer energy usage)
This is a monthly average. It's likely daylight hours usage would average more--I'll back-estimate a factor 2, to get Toyota's ratio: use 0.50kW per house. Realistically you'll use stuff far higher power, 1.5kW blowdryers etc, but not on average.
Ratio of power requirements:
= 500/0.50 = 1000 times the average power needed by a typical house for 12 minutes, as Toyota figures.
As we know however, this is a straw man: 500kW charging isn't practical without local battery storage.
Just for completeness, I'll also compare the energies used in 12 minutes: These are independent of charging speed, so it's unlikely Toyota is talking about energies.
Energy needed to charge a battery with 100kWh of energy:
100kWh, regardless of time it takes
(in practice high speed charging takes somewhat more energy due to waste losses, but the energy stored in the battery is the same, fast or slow charged)
Energy used by a typical house in 12 minutes, average estimated during waking hours:
0.50kW * 12/60 hour = 0.10 kW-h
Energy used by 1000 houses in 12 minutes:
1000 * 0.10 = 100kW-h
Ratio = 100/100 = 1.0
(far less than 1000--but not what Toyota was talking about)
Difference between energy and power:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_(physics)
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
German DAX down almost 2% in short time and TSLA following the dip almost 3% down.
Any specific reason?
Bad news from Greece?
Any specific reason?
Bad news from Greece?
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jhm
Well-Known Member
Let's use some round numbers. A typical home use about 36 kWh per day while a car needs about 12 kWh per day. So in terms of average power, that's 1.5 kW for a home and 0.5 kW. But really it is kind of silly to talk about average power because demand varies through out the day and utility capacity is determined by peak demand not average demand. So if everyone had a home and a car which demand would determine the peak. Home use of power is very hard to shift--try running the AC at night and not at mid day. By contrast, car charging can happen at any time at discretion. Thus, people will mostly charge their cars when rates are low or to save on demand charges when household demand is low. So any economical charging of cars will atlctually reduce peak to average power ratios, not make them worse as the Toyota executive is suggesting. Surely the top engineer at Toyota understands this, so he must be engaging false and misleading claims.
The impact of battery storage on the grid whether stationary or automotive will smooth out power demand, not make it worse. Toyota should be ashamed of itself for suggesting otherwise.
The impact of battery storage on the grid whether stationary or automotive will smooth out power demand, not make it worse. Toyota should be ashamed of itself for suggesting otherwise.
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