Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[PaulusdB]

This is clearly to undercut the 60,000euro limit for germany's EV car incentives that was introduced to cut out tesla out of competing with volkswagen / bmw etc. 60,000 euro today are worth 67908.00 USD. The base model on teslamotors.de now is 66,000 USD Good work.

You (and other posters) seem to forget that the German incentives are limited to purchases of qualifying cars from participating brands. Participating means matching the governemental incentives one-euro-by-one-euro. The only participating brands to date are BMW, VW and Daimler/Mercedes.
To state the obvious: whatever price Tesla sells cars at in Germany is immaterial; they will never qualify for the incentives, as Tesla does not participate in the incentive program (just like Mitsubishi, Nissan, Toyota or Renault, to name some other brands)

 

[JohnSnowNW]

In the Suspension Problem thread, the guy said he couldn't talk about his settlement due to the NDA. He did continue to warn others to have their suspension checked and notified the NHTSA. The NDA obviously doesn't prevent him from talking about the issue but only prevents him from revealing what settlement he received from Tesla. Seems a lot less nefarious that others are claiming.

Not sure it matters, but he had already reported the incident to the NHTSA the day he started the thread. All the updates he gave from the SC over the course of the thread were after he had already filed the report.

Just go back and read the beginning of the thread with the knowledge that he'd already filed. All the pictures that he had of the wear...all apparently available to him as he was supposedly discovering the issue at that moment.

Take that as you want.

 

[FluxCap]

I still exist, just taking a break from ST thread. Nice to see FUD is still spinning and all is right in the world.

I so Mini Cooper in ATL today whose driver is pretty excited about the about the Model 3. His Cooper had a sticker with "My next car is a [3 symbol]," and the custom plate was "MODEL 3". So it's taken in GA already. I tried to give the driver a thumbs up. I appreciate the enthusiasm.

Carry on.

I still exist too, for what it's worth. But I stopped being able to handle this thread a while ago given signal to noise ratio change, so I don't visit or post much these days. I'm long a large chunk of TSLA common stock now, 3-5 year hold. The Ron Baron plan, if you will.

Model 3 is still going to change the world.

 

[Hogfighter]

I still exist too, for what it's worth. But I stopped being able to handle this thread a while ago given signal to noise ratio change, so I don't visit or post much these days. I'm long a large chunk of TSLA common stock now, 3-5 year hold. The Ron Baron plan, if you will.

Model 3 is still going to change the world.

To loosely paraphrase Burke, 'The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.'

Please continue to post on this thread.....you've always provided good insight. You too, JHM. Just change those drapes.

 

[Bgarret]

A little weary on this one....a little history lesson may be helpful to counteract the FUD we will wade through in the next few days:

1. What is Tesla's history with the NTSB? Tesla typically issues recalls BEFORE the NTSB calls for them and even when the NTSB does not require a recall.

Citation - Model X Seats - 2016 - Quote from CNN - "Similar tests conducted for U.S. regulators did not result in a failure, but Tesla is still recalling the Model X in America." Initiated by: TESLA Fixed above and beyond by: TESLA

http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/11/luxury/tesla-model-x-recall/

Model S Seat Belts - Initiated by: Tesla. Fixed above and beyond by: Tesla


NEMA 14-50 Adapters - Initiated by: Tesla. Fixed above and beyond by: Tesla

From the NTSB's report: "The software update fully addresses the issue by substantially reducing the heat generated in any high resitance connections outside the vehicle. In addition, while not necessary to address the issue, Tesla has also developed an improved NEMA 14-50 adapter to provide a higher level of assurance to customers in Tesla products."
Keeping You Safe | Safercar | National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)acms/cs/jaxrs/download/doc/UCM448668/RCDNN-14V006-9349.pdf

Tesla running into major obstructions and getting their occupants out safely issue, then catching on fXXX:

http://www-odi.nhtsa.dot.gov/acms/cs/jaxrs/download/doc/UCM452870/INCLA-PE13037-2071.PDF

2. John Snow knows something on this one...if you read the thread - and I followed it for the last couple weeks as I am buying a CPO Tesla that has been subject to salty winter roads, you can assume (I know what that means) a couple things.
A. Something anomalous and bad happened to the Model S in Pennsylvania. (Why anomalous - because if it was recurring, you would have heard it first from TESLA - see above).
B. For likely very benign reasons, the OP extrapolated from the micro to the macro - if it happened to me, it must be a widespread problem. Before working through the problem completely with TESLA, he turned to the NTSB. My interpretation, read the thread.
C. The OP was egged on by a well-known, well documented TESLA hater and FUD creator, and he took the bait.
D. In the end, TESLA worked through the issue and did right by the OP, even though it was out of warranty, anomalous wear, and a claim that could be rejected out of hand (and would at most other manufacturers).
E. At the NTSB, the OP's complaint crossed the desk of a Grade "A" bureaucrat that believes "where there's smoke there's fire" and "it may not be broke, but I'm going to fix it." I have a Masters degree in bureaucracy - read the correspondence from NTSB on the thread yourself, but this smells like "Bureaucrats Gone Wild" to me. A fishing expedition was initiated.

And now we get to hear about "cover up" and "NDA" and "it's just like the ignition issue at GM."

And it's not.

 

[geneclean55]

A little weary on this one....a little history lesson may be helpful to counteract the FUD we will wade through in the next few days:

1. What is Tesla's history with the NTSB? Tesla typically issues recalls BEFORE the NTSB calls for them and even when the NTSB does not require a recall.

Citation - Model X Seats - 2016 - Quote from CNN - "Similar tests conducted for U.S. regulators did not result in a failure, but Tesla is still recalling the Model X in America." Initiated by: TESLA Fixed above and beyond by: TESLA

http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/11/luxury/tesla-model-x-recall/

Model S Seat Belts - Initiated by: Tesla. Fixed above and beyond by: Tesla


NEMA 14-50 Adapters - Initiated by: Tesla. Fixed above and beyond by: Tesla

From the NTSB's report: "The software update fully addresses the issue by substantially reducing the heat generated in any high resitance connections outside the vehicle. In addition, while not necessary to address the issue, Tesla has also developed an improved NEMA 14-50 adapter to provide a higher level of assurance to customers in Tesla products."
Keeping You Safe | Safercar | National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)acms/cs/jaxrs/download/doc/UCM448668/RCDNN-14V006-9349.pdf

Tesla running into major obstructions and getting their occupants out safely issue, then catching on fXXX:

http://www-odi.nhtsa.dot.gov/acms/cs/jaxrs/download/doc/UCM452870/INCLA-PE13037-2071.PDF

2. John Snow knows something on this one...if you read the thread - and I followed it for the last couple weeks as I am buying a CPO Tesla that has been subject to salty winter roads, you can assume (I know what that means) a couple things.
A. Something anomalous and bad happened to the Model S in Pennsylvania. (Why anomalous - because if it was recurring, you would have heard it first from TESLA - see above).
B. For likely very benign reasons, the OP extrapolated from the micro to the macro - if it happened to me, it must be a widespread problem. Before working through the problem completely with TESLA, he turned to the NTSB. My interpretation, read the thread.
C. The OP was egged on by a well-known, well documented TESLA hater and FUD creator, and he took the bait.
D. In the end, TESLA worked through the issue and did right by the OP, even though it was out of warranty, anomalous wear, and could be rejected out of hand (and would at most other manufacturers).
E. At the NTSB, the OP's complaint crossed the desk of a Grade "A" bureaucrat that believes "where there's smoke there's fire" and "it may not be broke, but I'm going to fix it." I have a Masters degree in bureaucracy - read the correspondence from NTSB on the thread yourself, but this smells like "Bureaucrats Gone Wild" to me. A fishing expedition was initiated.

And now we get to hear about "cover up" and "NDA" and "it's just like the ignition issue at GM."

And it's not.

Regardless of the pros/cons of the OP stance, that model S suspension thread also has some eye-opening examples of anti-Tesla trolls. Not just the obvious new troll accounts, but i swear there are actual sleeper-cells that have been maintaining somewhat low-frequency, innocuous posts until recently, and now have opened up.

 

[FredTMC]

Mike Ramsey WSJ article. I know "yuck"... WSJ. But anyway...

He implies someone at tesla said the suspension issue is NOT widespread.
And that NDA is to prevent customer from discussing the repair cost compromise.

Article excerpt:

"Tesla is reviewing the suspension issue but hasn't found it to be a widespread problem, said a person close to the company. Its agreement with customers was intended to keep them from discussing issues on Internet message boards, but wasn't meant to prevent talking with regulators, this person said.

Tesla asked an owner to sign the agreement in exchange for covering some repair costs, the company confirmed."

 

[geneclean55]

Mike Ramsey WSJ article. I know "yuck"... WSJ. But anyway...


Article excerpt:

"Tesla is reviewing the suspension issue but hasn't found it to be a widespread problem, said a person close to the company. Its agreement with customers was intended to keep them from discussing issues on Internet message boards, but wasn't meant to prevent talking with regulators, this person said.

Tesla asked an owner to sign the agreement in exchange for covering some repair costs, the company confirmed."

This. Obviously let NTSB do whatever they need to do. But presumably Tesla will have the stats on the number of suspension issues that have been flagged by Tesla owners. If there was an issue, Tesla would have made it known as they have done in other instances.

 

[aznt1217]

Hey All, just as a reminder. This whole suspension thing got way blown out of proportion when Edward Neidermeyer wrote a hit piece on it with his daily kanban blog. He has, for a long time, written negative stuff on tesla. Recent one here.

Tesla’s Model 3 Could Destroy Elon Musk’s Company

 

[TMSE]

Hey All, just as a reminder. This whole suspension thing got way blown out of proportion when Edward Neidermeyer wrote a hit piece on it with his daily kanban blog. He has, for a long time, written negative stuff on tesla. Recent one here.

Tesla’s Model 3 Could Destroy Elon Musk’s Company

That jackass was gloating on Twitter today on how TSLA stock price got affected. He definitely has an agenda to bring TSLA down. E.W. Niedermeyer on Twitter

 

[MikeC]

A little weary on this one....a little history lesson may be helpful to counteract the FUD we will wade through in the next few days:

1. What is Tesla's history with the NTSB? Tesla typically issues recalls BEFORE the NTSB calls for them and even when the NTSB does not require a recall.

Citation - Model X Seats - 2016 - Quote from CNN - "Similar tests conducted for U.S. regulators did not result in a failure, but Tesla is still recalling the Model X in America." Initiated by: TESLA Fixed above and beyond by: TESLA

http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/11/luxury/tesla-model-x-recall/

Model S Seat Belts - Initiated by: Tesla. Fixed above and beyond by: Tesla


NEMA 14-50 Adapters - Initiated by: Tesla. Fixed above and beyond by: Tesla

From the NTSB's report: "The software update fully addresses the issue by substantially reducing the heat generated in any high resitance connections outside the vehicle. In addition, while not necessary to address the issue, Tesla has also developed an improved NEMA 14-50 adapter to provide a higher level of assurance to customers in Tesla products."
Keeping You Safe | Safercar | National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)acms/cs/jaxrs/download/doc/UCM448668/RCDNN-14V006-9349.pdf

Tesla running into major obstructions and getting their occupants out safely issue, then catching on fXXX:

http://www-odi.nhtsa.dot.gov/acms/cs/jaxrs/download/doc/UCM452870/INCLA-PE13037-2071.PDF

2. John Snow knows something on this one...if you read the thread - and I followed it for the last couple weeks as I am buying a CPO Tesla that has been subject to salty winter roads, you can assume (I know what that means) a couple things.
A. Something anomalous and bad happened to the Model S in Pennsylvania. (Why anomalous - because if it was recurring, you would have heard it first from TESLA - see above).
B. For likely very benign reasons, the OP extrapolated from the micro to the macro - if it happened to me, it must be a widespread problem. Before working through the problem completely with TESLA, he turned to the NTSB. My interpretation, read the thread.
C. The OP was egged on by a well-known, well documented TESLA hater and FUD creator, and he took the bait.
D. In the end, TESLA worked through the issue and did right by the OP, even though it was out of warranty, anomalous wear, and a claim that could be rejected out of hand (and would at most other manufacturers).
E. At the NTSB, the OP's complaint crossed the desk of a Grade "A" bureaucrat that believes "where there's smoke there's fire" and "it may not be broke, but I'm going to fix it." I have a Masters degree in bureaucracy - read the correspondence from NTSB on the thread yourself, but this smells like "Bureaucrats Gone Wild" to me. A fishing expedition was initiated.

And now we get to hear about "cover up" and "NDA" and "it's just like the ignition issue at GM."

And it's not.

Excellent summation. Here's another recall from 2013, initiated by Tesla and fixed above and beyond by Tesla, - "the attachment strength of the mounting bracket for the left hand latch of the second row seat could be weaker than intended." Partial Recall

 

[X Yes?]

Edward Neidermeyer

Wasn't he the A-hole from the movie Animal House?

 

[Bgarret]

Excellent summation. Here's another recall from 2013, initiated by Tesla and fixed above and beyond by Tesla, - "the attachment strength of the mounting bracket for the left hand latch of the second row seat could be weaker than intended." Partial Recall

Thanks for the link - that's the seat latch "recall" and I had the notice for it and the 14xx cars effected, but didn't provide a citation....because THERE'S JUST SO MANY INSTANCES OF TESLA DOING RIGHT FOR THE SAFETY OF THEIR CLIENTS....I got tired...

 

[X Yes?]

Regardless of the pros/cons of the OP stance, that model S suspension thread also has some eye-opening examples of anti-Tesla trolls. Not just the obvious new troll accounts, but i swear there are actual sleeper-cells that have been maintaining somewhat low-frequency, innocuous posts until recently, and now have opened up.

I noticed this phenomenon also, very subversive.

 

[geneclean55]

I noticed this phenomenon also, very subversive.

Know thine enemy?

 

[X Yes?]

Know thine enemy?

I was going to say you, but did'nt want to be snippy!

 

[dc_h]

Edward Neidermeyer

Wasn't he the A-hole from the movie Animal House?

He was hurt by his own troops in Vietnam. I am paraphrasing to avoid offending anyone.
Interesting if tesla will sue for breach or libel?

 

[Johan]

When this whole thing gets properly settled in a week or two some of us should, each of us individually, report The Daily Kanban to the SEC for stock manipulation. It would most probably result in nothing but they would have to look in to it at least, there could be more to this that we don't know (for example the person(s) responsible for the spread of the "story" would have to disclose to the SEC if they closed out long positions or took up short positions in TSLA just as the story got traction).

 

[neroden]

3-4 more years of battery cost decreases didn't help on margins, as the overall has been around 25% for the past two more years.

Margins were improved by battery cost decreases and increases in the pricing, but made *worse* by the addition of autopilot and AWD hardware, and much higher than expected warranty costs.

What makes it different at this time? Cell production at GF is still months away.

Hopefully they've got the design bugs worked out and the warranty costs will start to decline, and hopefully they won't be adding a new slew of hardware sensors to the car. Though they might be. :-(

 

[neroden]

+1
That's exactly how I see it. Tesla also seemed to have done more marketing recently. More tweets, youtube videos etc. But overall all those things combined did not increase demand to a level Tesla is happy with to operate over the next months.

I can think of zero reasons why you would introduce this version if your order books were already filled to your satisfaction.

The argument here is over what Tesla considers to be a satisfactory size of order backlog. Some of us think they're increasing production. So demand is increasing but *not as fast as they can increase production* so Tesla wants more order backlog. Tesla has been making huge efforts to speed up the manufacturing process; we know that...