mejojo
Active Member
Hmmm..they way I read it is that owners will come first, regardless if at event, at store, or online.
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Hmmm..they way I read it is that owners will come first, regardless if at event, at store, or online.
I believe it's meant that reservations of all current owners will be put in front of the line. From the mail: "As a current owner who has supported Tesla and our mission, your reservation will take priority and be placed ahead of non-owners."
I think it's a nice gesture, but not really necessary, since the future production rate of M3 must be exponential to the one we know now. So waiting times will not differ much for all those who reserve on the 31st. It will be much more important to configure, as soon as you'd be invited, and configure a fully loaded M3 P100D
jhm
Well-Known Member
I was talking about being given priority in the reservation queue, not the line for entering the event. So this could be on order of 100k reservation that get filled for current Tesla owners before first time Tesla buyers get anything (excluding employees).
So the issue here is how quickly Tesla expands the customer base. If the first 100k Model 3 go to repeat customers and it takes six months to a year before these are delivered, then this policy is delaying the expansion of the customer base by as many months.
Why does this matter? Word of mouth is a key marketing driver for Tesla. Expanding the customer base with first-time buyers will bring word of mouth into new, previously untaps social networks. Selling Model 3 to existing customers will of course generate some word of mouth but that is a small increment to what already exist. By contrast, selling a Model 3 to a first-time customer will touch more people and generate more incremental word of mouth.
I believe Tesla really does need to build out this customer base to take the Model 3 mainstream, and this takes time to build. So I believe a mix of first-time and repeat customers in the first six months of production would best serve Tesla's marketing needs. Without that Tesla may need to use advertising to boost awareness into the mass market.
J. Hewitt - good to hear from you and good job on rep-ing for Jesse while he and Julian are on a sabbatical (or in time out). No technician, but I think it needs to be on stronger volume to confirm. Volume is OK, but it will likely keep grinding unless we get a bit of a catalyst to spike volume and break out.
The way I read the invite is only the 800 people at the event (the winners of the lottery) will get priority in the reservation queue, not all 100k current Tesla owners. And some Tesla employees.
Edit: Or maybe not.. I just re-read it. Not sure, it may really be all Tesla owners getting priority.. time to reset my expectations of driving a Model 3 before 2019
ludicrousspeed
Member
I think it's a good idea for Tesla to give early adopters the chance to reserve first for two reasons.
1) The early adopters put their money on the line during times when almost nobody knew or believed in the company. By going out on a limb and paying a large amount of money for a huge unknown, previous owners gave Tesla the ability to make the model 3 in the first place. Without proceeds from their previous models, Tesla would never have been able to make the model 3 at all.
2) These previous owners are more willing to put up with the early production stages of a new Tesla vehicle. This company is still only about 10 years old and is basically a start up, especially compared to its automotive competitors. This is clear because whenever they start production for a new car, there are some delays and hiccups associated with cars produced the first 3-6 months. The Model X is a perfect example, as Tesla has been anything but transparent to their customers in terms of deliveries until about a month ago. Even long time members of this forum were questioning whether the Model X would be able to ramp up into four figures per week of production. You think somebody who is relatively unfamiliar with Tesla (who probably expects their car to be delivered in VIN order, on an exact deadline, with absolutely no initial problems) would be okay with the likely rollout of the Model 3? No. I understand that the Model 3 will be much easier to build and ramp up, but previous Tesla owners are used to it and are much more willing to put up with it.
1) The early adopters put their money on the line during times when almost nobody knew or believed in the company. By going out on a limb and paying a large amount of money for a huge unknown, previous owners gave Tesla the ability to make the model 3 in the first place. Without proceeds from their previous models, Tesla would never have been able to make the model 3 at all.
2) These previous owners are more willing to put up with the early production stages of a new Tesla vehicle. This company is still only about 10 years old and is basically a start up, especially compared to its automotive competitors. This is clear because whenever they start production for a new car, there are some delays and hiccups associated with cars produced the first 3-6 months. The Model X is a perfect example, as Tesla has been anything but transparent to their customers in terms of deliveries until about a month ago. Even long time members of this forum were questioning whether the Model X would be able to ramp up into four figures per week of production. You think somebody who is relatively unfamiliar with Tesla (who probably expects their car to be delivered in VIN order, on an exact deadline, with absolutely no initial problems) would be okay with the likely rollout of the Model 3? No. I understand that the Model 3 will be much easier to build and ramp up, but previous Tesla owners are used to it and are much more willing to put up with it.
jhm
Yes, a good point about tapping new social networks but hardly the critical factor in early Model 3 production surely?
By the time that the first 100k are delivered at least 2 years from now, pubic awareness and desire for the Model 3 will have vastly outstripped Tesla's production rate in my opinion. Never mind that they might be still struggling at that stage to supply just a fraction of their mega back-log.
Besides, serving the early adopter community first who are mainly close to home in California is wise because there are bound to be glitches even with a much simpler to build model 3.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Thanks! I'm always reading but don't post as much as I used to...As far as catalyst, I was thinking that catalyst could be a "good" Fed meeting today combined with the fact everyone should now know that there WILL be a Model III prototype on March 31st vice just pictures. The event should be feeling very real now for investors and not something that is going to be postponed. It might be enough to give TSLA a little more fuel the next two weeks but we should also watch out for people taking profits. Anyone that bought in below $180 is sitting on some very nice profits and might want to realize some of those before the event.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
You made an excellent point! Yes, existing tesla owners will be much more foregiving about any Model3 production issues than new owners
Muaddid
Member
There has been good points on both sides in the thread dedicated to this : Model S/X Owners Have Priority Model 3 Orders Over Non-Owners
I don't think it will affect SP but if it did, it would be negative as many people (me included) have been waiting since the secret masterplan blog post to buy a Tesla and now we gotta wait even more. This situation sadly just reinforce the "Tesla is for the 1%" false agenda.
Anyway, discussion regarding that should probably be moved to the other thread...
I don't think it will affect SP but if it did, it would be negative as many people (me included) have been waiting since the secret masterplan blog post to buy a Tesla and now we gotta wait even more. This situation sadly just reinforce the "Tesla is for the 1%" false agenda.
Anyway, discussion regarding that should probably be moved to the other thread...
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
I understand your reasoning, and i don't want to argue whether it's good or bad to priorise the reservation of us early adopters. To expand the customer base in a sufficiently rapid way is certainly key to the future success of TM. Given the non existing competition and the past achievements of Tesla (and the expectations / projections we all have for the M3) i am certain Tesla will remain production constrained for years to come. That said i don't think the way reservations are taken are relevant.
I read that Employees were going to be able to reserve ahead of the reveal event. If employees get the first vehicles off the line, it'll greatly help the attention to QC initially. Additionally, it could be a PR coup when the first deliveries are for those working the assembly lines for example. While Elon said the higher optioned cars will be prioritized first, they can indeed fit in employee base models in between.
I agree for the reservation priority up until shareholders and employees of vendors. At that point it'll be easier to have a public pool of reservations.
jhm
Well-Known Member
So giving existing customers priority is a nice customer loyalty gesture, and yes, these seasoned customers may be more tolerant of early production flaws. But let's not confuse existing customers with early adopters. Not all of us who own a Model S are early adopters. I for one am not. Moreover, there are many first-time buyers who will be early adopters. An early adopter with only an average income has been waiting more than 5 years already for a Tesla within their financial means. These are the early adopters who are being told that their support of Tesla is not valued as highly as that of wealthier customers who could already afford a Roadster, S or X. Why should this early adopter be told that they should wait an extra year, so that first class customers can be served before them? Yeah customer loyalty is great, but elitism stinks.
It's not even clear why Tesla would want to down sell an existing customer from a Model S to a Model 3. How many Model S trade-ins might this generate? If there are too many, this could depress the resale value of the Model S, which also depress demand for new Model S and X. Yeah, customer loyalty is great, but if the value of Models S and X are undermined, loyal customers will not be happy. Tesla should be inducing existing customers to upgrade into higher value Model S and X, not down selling to Model 3.
It's not even clear why Tesla would want to down sell an existing customer from a Model S to a Model 3. How many Model S trade-ins might this generate? If there are too many, this could depress the resale value of the Model S, which also depress demand for new Model S and X. Yeah, customer loyalty is great, but if the value of Models S and X are undermined, loyal customers will not be happy. Tesla should be inducing existing customers to upgrade into higher value Model S and X, not down selling to Model 3.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Curt, as a long term Tesla shareholder you should get some priority in the Model 3 reservation queue!
But what about shorties?
I could imagine some kind of black list (just kidding
).
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
They won't be (allegedly) doing Signatures with Model 3 - a good move IMO. No matter who reserved in what order we all know they'll be building the high-optioned, big battery cars first (the one's with the most margin and highest ASP), just like they've done with S and X. That's the nature of business I guess. Doesn't matter how early you bought your plane ticket or how early you arrived at the airport - they're going to seat 1st class passengers first, right?
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