While nice surprise is more fun than being boringly accurate. It's worth nothing that there is a propagating effect with the Model 3 as it starts to dawn on people that here is a better value for money car and a far more sensible financial decision than getting caught out with only the option of a sharply devaluing worse value for money ICE vehicle with poor performance horrible maintenance, wildly fluctuating heavily taxed and uncontrollable fuel costs with no way of simply making your own fuel if you don't like the price at the pump and both moral and tax penalty implications for emissions and difficulties looking your own kids in the eye when "do you think your parents have money to burn" is as good a reason as any to buy a Tesla. $1000 to get on the Tesla Model 3 list is cheap insurance against all of the above if you plan to buy a car any time in the next 1.5 - 4 years.
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While nice surprise is more fun than being boringly accurate. It's worth nothing that there is a propagating effect with the Model 3 as it starts to dawn on people that here is a better value for money car and a far more sensible financial decision than getting caught out with only the option of a sharply devaluing worse value for money ICE vehicle with poor performance horrible maintenance, wildly fluctuating heavily taxed and uncontrollable fuel costs with no way of simply making your own fuel if you don't like the price at the pump and both moral and tax penalty implications for emissions and difficulties looking your own kids in the eye when "do you think your parents have money to burn" is as good a reason as any to buy a Tesla. $1000 to get on the Tesla Model 3 list is cheap insurance against all of the above if you plan to buy a car any time in the next 1.5 - 4 years.
dreamingof3
Member
I'm now noticing the short argument/thesis has shifted a bit. It has gone from many stating the 3 will never happen to current product cannibalization. That the 3 will sabotage X and s sales because of the "Osborne effect". I dont believe this at all. Each vehicle should appeal to a different market segment and buyer. I had to lol when I read the concern is how will tesla build all of these cars. It's a good problem to have going from "they will never build a mainstream vehicle" argument. We have a large amounts of shorts who aren't Andrew left, as the dollar amount of short interest is still likely staggering. Oh yeah and there is the constant desperation argument of -"they have got to issue more shares because Elon knows this price is too good to last". IMO a real squeeze will be orchestrated to the 350 level before any capital raise is announced. We all know the personal character traits of Tesla shorts. They love FUD and stay in denial.
mejojo
Active Member
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
That's an impressive use of no commas
Julian's posts are anything but pointless.
You know a lot about the shorts. I had to look that up. Denial Bay is a small fishing village in South Australia. Apparently this is where they are staying, all the while enjoying delicious sandwiches filled with Fud.
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That's an impressive use of no commas
I always read Julian's posts like someone who takes a really deep breath and talks for a really long time then gasps desperately at the end of the sentence.
Like Jim Carry in "Liar Liar" who goes on the long involuntary truth spewing tirades.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
FCA announced several months back they are discontinuing the Chrysler 200 and Dodge Dart.
They will be using that capacity to make more Ram Trucks and Jeep SUVs.
As the article states above those employees let go will be rehired at other Detroit Area plants.
Because it will take a while to retool for Rams and Jeeps.
jhm
Well-Known Member
If you liked shorting Tesla at $190, you're gonna love shorting it at $280!
I just discovered that in Chrome, you can "right click" the link, and one of the options is "Google for ... ". Neat.
Commas are, like, overrated.That's an impressive use of no commas
Is the last sentence in your post a fact or an assumption?
From this article:
Fiat Chrysler to lay off 1,300 at Chrysler 200 plant
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And here I always thought De Nile was a river in Egypt. Learn something new every day.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Fiat Chrysler to shift focus and build more Jeeps, Rams
Sorry the facts don't conform to Model 3 reservations are immediately collapsing the legacy auto industry narrative.
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It's funny how shorts argue there is lacking demand for Teslas, that Model 3 unveil will only be design sketches at best, that the Chevy Bolt will be a Tesla-killer.
Now, it's been revealed to be a working and test-drivable Model 3 that packs better value for money than the Bolt in all three areas of functionality, style and performance, and a huge demand of 300,000+ reservations in the first week with 115,000 of them before the unveiling event. In fact, it's so much demand that shorts now believe this demand will cannibalize the S/X sales. At least they implicitly admit that demand is very significant!
I concur. A good way to see how much is take a look at a couple of charts made here at TMC:
Chart for Model 3 reservations — cumulative and hourly
Model 3 Reservation Tally
310K reservations seem reasonable as a conservative guess. Tesla last left off at 276K reservations on 04/02/2016. We are now at 04/06/2016, so 4 days should bring in more than 34K reservations. I'm thinking it may have achieved at least 350K reservations while attempting to forecast the slow down. I think TSLA is in good standing and ready to increase some more, considering that Elon made a good forecast earlier today (Elon Musk on Twitter): probably unwise [to short TSLA].
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The article you posted mentions Fiat Chrystler plans to shift its focus to more Jeeps and Rams but doesn't say anything about the Sterling Heights Assembly Plant.
This snippet from the article you posted is very interesting, and partially does imply that the "legacy automakers narrative is collapsing".
Told two friends of mine yesterday about the details of the reservation (refundable, etc...). They were planning on reserving that night.
350004
I reminded one of my friends about the reservation the day before it started, and he decided not to reserve. However, he did reserve when he heard there are already 276K people in line
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FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Very excited about the strong reservations. Really hoping for tesla to accelerate launch date.
Clearly they can raise all the capital they want. Things were looking bad in Feb with the market collapsing. Looked like tesla would need to control their CapEx burn rate and rely on FCF to appease the street.
IMO, Tesla is certainly no longer constrained. Go get any capital they want and they have over $300m from Reservations. So, cash on hand is probably ~$1.5B.
1). Bring up GF new form-factor cells for Model3 with Panasonic lines SOONER and with higher production rates.
2). Get stamping dies built (in-house capability now)
3). Build the first Model 3 body-in-white line. Robotic welding.
4). Build the first Model 3 conveyor-based assembly line.
I think getting to INITIAL production launch sooner than Q4'17 is FAR more valuable for the SP than solely planning for higher rates in 2018 and beyond. (Need to do both of course... Quicker launch and higher ramps)
I do not want to hear about body changes months from now (e.g, trunk hatch, etc). Just lock down the design soon and start building out the lines.
I do NOT want to hear about new factories NOW. This is all "out year" stuff. Let's just have M3 rolling off the first Fremont production line by a year from now.
Boom!
Clearly they can raise all the capital they want. Things were looking bad in Feb with the market collapsing. Looked like tesla would need to control their CapEx burn rate and rely on FCF to appease the street.
IMO, Tesla is certainly no longer constrained. Go get any capital they want and they have over $300m from Reservations. So, cash on hand is probably ~$1.5B.
1). Bring up GF new form-factor cells for Model3 with Panasonic lines SOONER and with higher production rates.
2). Get stamping dies built (in-house capability now)
3). Build the first Model 3 body-in-white line. Robotic welding.
4). Build the first Model 3 conveyor-based assembly line.
I think getting to INITIAL production launch sooner than Q4'17 is FAR more valuable for the SP than solely planning for higher rates in 2018 and beyond. (Need to do both of course... Quicker launch and higher ramps)
I do not want to hear about body changes months from now (e.g, trunk hatch, etc). Just lock down the design soon and start building out the lines.
I do NOT want to hear about new factories NOW. This is all "out year" stuff. Let's just have M3 rolling off the first Fremont production line by a year from now.
Boom!
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