stef
Member
Of course. What I am trying to say is that the timing of this 500k milestone may well give the opportunity for a nice 1-2 punch of public releases (assuming Q2 delivery numbers are as good as we think)
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I'm scratching my head here at some of the doom-and-gloom coming from some of you, and I have to ask why?
So TSLA dropped-back to where it was on... ooooo, Tuesday - so what? It's clearly due to a combination of macro and ridiculous expectations on M3 reservations. Obviously after the first influx of "early adopters", there was going to be a slow-down, not at all unexpected. The majority of the rest will likely wait now until they see more of the car or even until it's into production and first reviews start coming in.
Honestly, I see nothing but positives for Tesla and TSLA, and I expect the stock to be 700 when the M3 is released. For the short-term I feel it will go side-ways a bit and probably jump on a very positive Q1EC.
Despite yesterday's "plummet", I'm still up 64%, so keep the faith!
So TSLA dropped-back to where it was on... ooooo, Tuesday - so what? It's clearly due to a combination of macro and ridiculous expectations on M3 reservations. Obviously after the first influx of "early adopters", there was going to be a slow-down, not at all unexpected. The majority of the rest will likely wait now until they see more of the car or even until it's into production and first reviews start coming in.
Honestly, I see nothing but positives for Tesla and TSLA, and I expect the stock to be 700 when the M3 is released. For the short-term I feel it will go side-ways a bit and probably jump on a very positive Q1EC.
Despite yesterday's "plummet", I'm still up 64%, so keep the faith!
If it drops to 125 an hour for the next week, that's another 21,000. If it then drops to 750 a day for the next two weeks, that's another 21,000. We're already at 367K and it isn't May yet.
If reservations stabilize at 500 a day, we still reach 500K by the end of the year. I honestly think that a million reservations before the first car is manufactured is extremely, extremely likely. I personally am betting on 2x to 4x as many -- the pent-up demand is enormous. We'll see what the reservation rate stabilizes at...
This is because "some of you" have been at this for many quarters with TSLA and probably elsewhere and see the game that other types of investors play this stock. There's a pattern that can be seen, especially sell on the news. But "some of you" also give reasons why TSLA will trade either sideways or down because there's no significant news that would impact TSLA until Q1 ER in about a month. There's none of the sky is falling stuff, but there are given reasons to observe and look at how history repeats itself. There's very little reason left for TSLA to continue an upward trend unless something unexpectedly happens that makes TSLA more valuable. Model 3 unveiling can be attributed to the big and long run up for weeks, so you can see that the excitement has passed, now something new must happen or else the high value can't be sustained for a long time.
As for others who aren't in a favorable position like you, some have bought near the high end of the valuation of TSLA and is now regretting getting in late and now left with a negative return, so keeping the faith will be very hard on those, as I've been in that position before. It's going to be a long road if bad stuff happens, which I hope it doesn't to anybody.
I totally disagree with this point of view. I see nothing but positives for Tesla and TSLA right now - other than macro events, which we can't control.
Just hold, it will be back up there, and higher, soon. that's my view; and this thread is just everyone's opinions and guesses anyway, isn't it (some more educated than others, granted).
EDIT: Just to note that when I first invested in TSLA it was at 270, so those positions are still red, so I'm not a stranger to being heavily down. Wasn't a massive amount, I will admit, but it was all I had at the time...
I don't get your reasoning, why did you reserve in the first place ? I can understand the wish for a roadster based on the new M3 platform. But you sure would have to wait longer than for the M3. As for the "wait" time, it has been discussed further up the thread...
So back on topic, i think the M3 is much more differentiated from the S and X and thus the cancellation rate will be much lower than the rate for the X. I am also in the camp of those who wanted an X when it was revealed and placed a reservation, but i will cancel it, since our S85D checks almost all the boxes for us, and the X is to flashy for my taste.
I know this is the short-termer's thread: but if you always buy at a price you're comfortable with for the long haul, you don't sweat the temporary drops, and if you have the liquidity, you view them as opportunities to buy more.
I thought this thread was about short-term price movements, not especially short-term trading, so we're discussing here why the stock moves up and down, which brings-in related discussion on short and option trading.
But totally agree with what you write.
IB actually has 200,000 share available unlike the others.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Doom and gloom? Just another day in teslaland. It's been dooming and glooming since 2003.
More seriously. It's because of options. Expirations and volatility events that options didn't price in.
Disagree because:
- Each reservation could mean one less ICE made.
- Each reservation is a 0% interest loan to Tesla.
- Each reserver will evangelize M3 while waiting for their delivery.
- So far reservations have only come from early adopter types (not main stream car buyers). Early adopters will put up with waiting.
Well yes, with such a volatile SP that doesn't seem to react to real news, it's always going to be very stressy and risky! But for amateurs like me, holding long seems a very, very good bet.
Random thought. Elon changed his Twitter avatar to him holding a telephone when he was a little kid. Does this mean him making margin calls to shorts?
Maybe he is getting so many offers for factories and financing, he feels like he doesn't know what he is talking
Kinda cutesy way...
jeewee3000
Active Member
Luckily I've sold all my short term leveraged products before the opening yesterday, not at the highest of the pre-market, but still very happy. Bought back a very small amount when it was around 259-260, in the red now. But it's play money so no harm, and I'm confident we'll try to go higher, giving me the chance to sell in the green.
I'm of the same opinion as Lycanthrope concerning yesterday's price action. And in the general environment, after such a rally, a small consolidation was to be expected and is alright. Way to early to call a top and a trend reversal. My opinion, and I can be completely wrong of course.
Now I'm a happy reservation holder of a 3 as well, since friday, and as European, I'll have to wait long, but I'll wait. And I see no reason why they'd be plenty of cancellations on this side of the pond: all but a few of those who put the money down knew what they were doing and what are the other options? I see none. Remember what CEO of Audi said about one who test drove electric cars. Gone forever...
Audi's, BM's, Merc's: Booooring cars. No novelty. And bloody expensive.
With the S to start with, and now definitely with the 3 as it will be affordable , Tesla is offering a new perspective that wipes out all the "competition". I don't think that apart from this board, many people realize exactly what it means.
I still have a flat six, twin turbo as toy car. I look at it, I love it. But it's history, it's the past. Really. I'm emotionally attached to it, to the make, the model, but younger people, and you can feel it, do not have the same irrational emotions towards those cars.
The legacy automakers make me think of Coca-Cola. Why do you drink Coke? Mostly because it is advertised all over the place, and we are sensitive to publicity. You don't drink it because it's good, or healthy.
Tesla: 325k people wanting a car without advertising. For me, all of sudden, the rest of the auto industry just became even more tasteless, colorless. Completely has-been.
I'm of the same opinion as Lycanthrope concerning yesterday's price action. And in the general environment, after such a rally, a small consolidation was to be expected and is alright. Way to early to call a top and a trend reversal. My opinion, and I can be completely wrong of course.
Now I'm a happy reservation holder of a 3 as well, since friday, and as European, I'll have to wait long, but I'll wait. And I see no reason why they'd be plenty of cancellations on this side of the pond: all but a few of those who put the money down knew what they were doing and what are the other options? I see none. Remember what CEO of Audi said about one who test drove electric cars. Gone forever...
Audi's, BM's, Merc's: Booooring cars. No novelty. And bloody expensive.
With the S to start with, and now definitely with the 3 as it will be affordable , Tesla is offering a new perspective that wipes out all the "competition". I don't think that apart from this board, many people realize exactly what it means.
I still have a flat six, twin turbo as toy car. I look at it, I love it. But it's history, it's the past. Really. I'm emotionally attached to it, to the make, the model, but younger people, and you can feel it, do not have the same irrational emotions towards those cars.
The legacy automakers make me think of Coca-Cola. Why do you drink Coke? Mostly because it is advertised all over the place, and we are sensitive to publicity. You don't drink it because it's good, or healthy.
Tesla: 325k people wanting a car without advertising. For me, all of sudden, the rest of the auto industry just became even more tasteless, colorless. Completely has-been.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Wind and Solar Are Crushing Fossil Fuels
This is what I've been saying. We'll be discussing it in the Shorting Oil thread, but I post it here because this sort of news coverage is key to drawing renewables and EVs into mainstream awarenes. Bloomberg has been doing a great job helping investors frame the global energy transition. It's happening.
This is what I've been saying. We'll be discussing it in the Shorting Oil thread, but I post it here because this sort of news coverage is key to drawing renewables and EVs into mainstream awarenes. Bloomberg has been doing a great job helping investors frame the global energy transition. It's happening.
InTheShadows
Active Member
I think the tone has turned cautious because for the short term and in particular those that are in the options game the volitility is high right now and buying anything is very tough to figure out.
The predictability right now is hard, which is evidenced by many closing their short term positions.
The predictability right now is hard, which is evidenced by many closing their short term positions.
jhm
Well-Known Member
When implied volatility is high, it is better to write options than to buy them. No need to sour sentiment because some are playing the wrong side of the options game.
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