I would think it would make more sense to move the highest-volume car to Texas first (MYLR)... that would provide the most relief for Fremont for factory retooling/upgrading. Fremont could even use their freed up capacity to build a ton of current style MYPs in advance of the shutdown to minimize customer disruptions.
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Should I wait for 2021-2022 Model Y upgrade?
- Thread starter Helloguyz
- Start date
I would think it would make more sense to move the highest-volume car to Texas first (MYLR)... that would provide the most relief for Fremont for factory retooling/upgrading. Fremont could even use their freed up capacity to build a ton of current style MYPs in advance of the shutdown to minimize customer disruptions.
Mrbrock
Active Member
He confirmed 4680 in May. During the earnings call recently he backpedaled and said they have alternate plans to use 2170 if they don't have enough 4680. Which means they don't have enough or they wouldn't announce a contingency plan. Elon "confirms" a lot of things like the new Roadster and the Semi that continually are delayed or changed.
Also, if they use 4680 and get the expected 16% increase in range with a similarly sized pack (forgot if this was in a Tesla presentation or some article somewhere) then the LR MY would be around 377 miles. No way Tesla is using a 377 mile LR MY to fulfill east coast orders from Austin while using a 326 mile LR MY to fulfill orders from West Coast that were placed at the same time, same specs, same pricing, that would be a PR nightmare and probably start a bunch of lawsuits. As others have said, Austin will start with 2170 so range will be the same and until Fremont can be upgraded to new castings they won't introduce 4680. I would also guess the 4680 would go into MYP first so it would have increased range over LR (with the already increased price) and then maybe see a LR+ available for new orders when 4680 is available. And they have to be careful with announcing the 4680 because if pricing is similar, all the current 2170 orders would be postponed or transitioned and they'd have a lot of cars sitting around to find new buyers for.
Given Elon most recently revised his previous Tweet by mentioning in the earnings call that there is a backup plan for MYs from Austin to ship with 2170s, I think it's best -- given Elon's tendency to over promise -- to view the "backup plan" as the actual plan. According to the same earnings call update, the 4680 has about 10% remaining production challenges that need to be addressed. The 4680 has lots of promise, but it will take sometime for those to be realized.
We were not in a rush to get a new car, so debated waiting until 2022 to get a giga-Austin MY. We decided to go ahead and order this year (4-July order date). My take on giga-Austin MYs:
- Paint is likely to be improved
- Build quality to initially be improved, but as production scales there will be issues until they reach volume and work through the scaling issues. Elon was clear in his interview with Sandy Munroe that the worst time to by a Tesla is during production scaling.
- 2170 battery to start, transitioning to the 4680 structural battery pack once it is ready. If the 4680 was ready now, CT would have remained the priority. There is no backup option for the CT as it requires the 4680, which is why the initial production priority shifted from CT to MY.
- Perhaps the configurable air suspension that showed up in some doc details for Shanghai will be an option; though it seems likely this option (if it ever arrives), will come later rather than with initial giga-Austin MYs.
Mrskahn
OD 8/11 MYLR Silver/Black Int/7 Seat/Tow
I don't really think waiting for 6 months or so to get a MY from Austin is really going to provide any significant improvement/benefit over buying now in terms of car specs/quality. And I say this as someone who has had his April order on hold waiting to see if EV tax credits pan out prior to going ahead with my order. My general thoughts on the matter are:
- 4680 cells definitely won't happen right away. If they couldn't source enough for the Plaid+ (I don't buy Elon's PR speak for a minute about the plus simply not being necessary), there is no way they are going to be in a situation to source enough 4680 cells for a high volume car like the MY. Not to mention that the CT wouldn't also be pushed to 2022.
- Fit and finish improvements seem to be wishful thinking at the moment. I'm sure they will manage that, but I don't necessarily think that the first batches rolling out over the first few months will actually be these perfect specimens that Fremont could never achieve.
- I do think that the paint will likely be better due to less/no? regulations regarding VoCs in TX
- Single casting will be nice for Tesla but there isn't a whole lot of benefit for consumers. It will simplify production and improve margins for Tesla. In the long run it might help tighten up tolerances for fit and finish
- Even when 4680 makes it to the MY, it will likely result in a new model (LR+ ?) if they decide to increase range. In the short term, given the insane demand, they will likely just reduce battery size to maintain similar range as today and use the saved battery cells to increase the number of cars produced.
All in all, I don't see huge reasons to wait in the short term beyond trying to wait out the tax credit situation. If you are going to wait, I think a 2+ year timeframe is far more likely to gain some nice benefits over the cars being sold today.
- 4680 cells definitely won't happen right away. If they couldn't source enough for the Plaid+ (I don't buy Elon's PR speak for a minute about the plus simply not being necessary), there is no way they are going to be in a situation to source enough 4680 cells for a high volume car like the MY. Not to mention that the CT wouldn't also be pushed to 2022.
- Fit and finish improvements seem to be wishful thinking at the moment. I'm sure they will manage that, but I don't necessarily think that the first batches rolling out over the first few months will actually be these perfect specimens that Fremont could never achieve.
- I do think that the paint will likely be better due to less/no? regulations regarding VoCs in TX
- Single casting will be nice for Tesla but there isn't a whole lot of benefit for consumers. It will simplify production and improve margins for Tesla. In the long run it might help tighten up tolerances for fit and finish
- Even when 4680 makes it to the MY, it will likely result in a new model (LR+ ?) if they decide to increase range. In the short term, given the insane demand, they will likely just reduce battery size to maintain similar range as today and use the saved battery cells to increase the number of cars produced.
All in all, I don't see huge reasons to wait in the short term beyond trying to wait out the tax credit situation. If you are going to wait, I think a 2+ year timeframe is far more likely to gain some nice benefits over the cars being sold today.
You're not placing an order on a new Y today and getting it anytime soon unless you pay more $$ for it used.
Tesla claims a 54% increase in range combined with front/rear castings/structural pack. That will easily enable a 400+ mile range in the 4680 Y. From Battery Day last year.
Joe Tegtmeyer is at Giga Texas basically every day. He gets info from people actually working there.
While not "confirmed", it's all on par with Giga Texas timeline
It's right on track with the production timeline. We are already in August. The redesigned Y's are coming
Tesla Wont Increase model y or 3 ranges to 400, Doesn't make sense from a sales point. They need to increase the S and X to 500 miles at least to have those vehicles sell. at best case 2022 will have 25 extra miles for both model 3 and y.
There's more to it than that though... Will the LR get the new headlights? Will we finally see the new door panels from the Chinese MY? Will the tow hitch cover be improved?
Even if we don't get a range boost or better QC, any number of other changes could still add up to a very worthwhile "light refresh".
Jeremy3292
Active Member
I personally have always been confused by the lack of the new door trim on the Model Y as they have it on the Model 3. I am also pretty certain Tesla was shipping Model Y's in Q1 2021 with the new door trim but then they just up and stopped and changed the graphic on the Tesla order page.
Fair enough. I think if these things matter to someone then by all means, it would certainly be worth waiting it out. I just think that most people have a larger scale FOMO because they think the new cars from Austin will be a huge leap forward, but I just don't see that happening. I do think that 2 years from now, the MY will likely be a much better car than the one sold today.
Mrbrock
Active Member
The idea of the tax credit is to encourage people to buy EVs. If you already bought one, you don’t need encouragement.
They've only shipped the new door trim on MiC MYs so far. Usually, there has been a few months lag between when changes first introduced in China make it to Fremont cars. However, the bioweapon defense mode took ~7 months to make it to the US MY in July and the new door panels were introduced about the same time or before then. I think it's just a matter of time before they come.
I don't really have a strong feeling about how they look either way but I remember reading rumors about the new door cards being better insulated/soundproofed. I've done lots of work taking apart the door in my 2018 M3 to install soundproofing and I'd be interested in seeing if there is any major changes in the new one that could help.
I have a 18 model 3 and I'm waiting for the model y to get the new 4680 battery which in god knows when it's actually gonna be released. I did read somewhere that the battery will go through a period where the new battery cells will be tested for reliability... so I guess I'm gonna be waiting a little while longer. I'm optimistic if the overall price will be reduced though.
Jeremy3292
Active Member
Age old saying: never buy the first model year of a redesign of any car (including a Tesla)
Jeremy3292
Active Member
Tesla updated the Model Y config in the USA with the new door panels at one point in early 2021. There are multiple articles about it and screenshots on this forum. But then they removed it and apparently never delivered any in the USA with the updated door panels.
Meteile
Member
To summarize for people who don't care to read the thread: we don't know what the new model y is going to look like. 
As Elon himself has said, the worst time to buy a Tesla is during production ramp. That is one of the reasons we placed our order in early July. We will get whatever is most compelling in EVs in a few years. The pace of change and innovation with EVs is incredible.
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